Monday, January 23, 2017

Bracketology 1/24/17

The big news of the night is North Carolina State doing what Miami could not on Saturday and beating Duke in Durham. The win vaults the Wolfpack 10 spots up my seed list, enough to get them into a First Four game. There's a number of intriguing games tomorrow, but from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Kansas State and Iowa State. A win for either team would go a long ways to getting off the bubble for good.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland, St. Mary's
6: Florida, Xavier, Duke, West Virginia
7: Purdue, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Minnesota, Dayton, USC, Michigan State
9: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State
10: Clemson, Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington
11: Marquette, VCU, Seton Hall, (Pittsburgh/TCU)
12: Illinois State, (North Carolina State/Rhode Island), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, (Texas Southern/UC Irvine), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Illinois, Mississippi, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State,
Next Four Out: Michigan, Georgia, California, Wichita State
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Utah, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, La Salle, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Memphis, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Penn State, Alabama, Central Florida

Moving In: North Carolina State
Moving Out: Illinois
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Bracketology 1/23/17

Little action of note in Sunday's games. Northwestern takes another step on their road to that elusive tourney bid with a win at Ohio State. That loss for the Buckeyes knocks them out of at-large consideration for me, as they have an RPI in the mid-80s and a 2-7 record against the RPI top 50. Elsewhere, USC narrowly avoids a damaging loss at home to Arizona State.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Xavier, West Virginia
7: Purdue, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Minnesota, Dayton, USC, Michigan State
9: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State
10: Clemson, Wake Forest, TCU, Middle Tennessee
11: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, VCU, (Seton Hall/Pittsburgh)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Illinois), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, (Texas Southern/UC Irvine), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Texas Tech, Michigan, Georgia
Next Four Out: California, Wichita State, Miami (FL), Utah
Also Considered: North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, La Salle, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Memphis, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Penn State, Alabama, Central Florida

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Ohio State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 1/22/17

Lots of movement yesterday, as Marquette got a huge win @ Creighton to move into the bracket. Elsewhere, Arizona beat UCLA and passes them in the bracket, and Florida State is now first in line for a 1-seed should any of the current 1-seeds lose.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland
6: St. Mary's, Florida, West Virginia, Xavier
7: SMU, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern
8: Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC, Clemson
9: Michigan State, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State
10: Kansas State, Wake Forest, TCU, Middle Tennessee
11: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, Seton Hall, (Pittsburgh/VCU)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Illinois), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, (Texas Southern/UC Irvine), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Texas Tech, Michigan, Georgia
Next Four Out: California, Wichita State, Miami (FL), Utah
Also Considered: La Salle, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Central Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Memphis

Moving In: Rhode Island, Marquette, North Carolina Central, Fairleigh Dickinson
Moving Out: Texas Tech, Georgia, Morgan State, LIU-Brooklyn

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, January 20, 2017

Bracketology 1/20/17

A good deal of bubble movement in the last two days as Kansas State and Texas Tech move in due to wins over fellow Big 12 bubble teams Oklahoma State and TCU, while losses cause California and Miami (FL) to drop out. Elsewhere, VCU is in serious bubble trouble after a loss to Fordham, and South Carolina is within striking distance of a protected seed now after a win against Florida. A win at Rupp this weekend might put them on the 3 line.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Arizona
4: Oregon, Virginia, Florida, Notre Dame
5: Duke, South Carolina, Cincinnati, West Virginia
6: Minnesota, Maryland, St. Mary's, Xavier
7: Wisconsin, Purdue, SMU, Northwestern
8: Michigan State, Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC
9: TCU, Clemson, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee
10: UNC Wilmington, Iowa State, Wake Forest, Indiana
11: Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, (Illinois/Kansas State)
12: (Georgia/VCU), Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, North Dakota State
16: Weber State, Texas Southern, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Long Island/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Rhode Island, Mississippi, California, Marquette
Next Four Out: Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Wichita State, Utah
Also Considered: Michigan, La Salle, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Tennessee, Stanford, Alabama, Houston, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Central Florida, Ohio State, Memphis

Moving In: Texas Tech, Kansas State
Moving Out: California, Miami (FL)

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Bracketology 1/18/17

1) Relatively few changes today, although NC State's win over Pittsburgh moves both teams closer towards the cut line. There's a number of interesting games tonight, but I'll be keeping my eye on Kansas State @ Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are a talented team and most advanced metrics say they're tourney-worthy, but a loss tonight would put them at 0-6 in the Big 12, meaning they'd probably need to go 8-4 down the stretch to make the tournament.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Creighton, Florida State, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida
4: Oregon, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia
5: Arizona, Duke, Cincinnati, Minnesota
6: St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina, Xavier
7: Wisconsin, Purdue, SMU, TCU
8: Northwestern, USC, Michigan State, Dayton
9: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, VCU
10: Middle Tennessee, Iowa State, Seton Hall, UNC Wilmington
11: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Indiana, (Georgia/Wake Forest)
12: (California/Miami (FL)), Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Dakota State, Texas Southern, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Long Island/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Rhode Island, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Marquette, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Wichita State
Also Considered: Charleston, Georgia Tech, Utah, Michigan, La Salle, Houston, UT-Arlington, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State, Tennessee, Stanford, Alabama, Central Florida


Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 5
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Bracketology 1/17/17

1) Major changes in this update, as some teams are making legitimate pushes to make the tournament (Georgia, California) while others can't win a conference game to save their lives and are falling out of contention. (North Carolina State, Oklahoma State)

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida
4: Oregon, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia
5: Arizona, Duke, Cincinnati, Xavier
6: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina
7: Wisconsin, SMU, Purdue, TCU
8: Northwestern, USC, Michigan State, Dayton
9: Clemson, Virginia Tech, TCU, Middle Tennessee
10: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Arkansas, Seton Hall
11: Illinois, UNC Wilmington, (Indiana/Georgia), (Wake Forest/California)
12: Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont, Nevada
13: Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Akron
14: New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Richmond
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Dakota State, Texas Southern, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Long Island/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Marquette, Rhode Island
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Mississippi, Wichita State, Charleston
Also Considered: Michigan, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Utah, La Salle, Tennessee, Houston, UT-Arlington, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State, Stanford, Alabama, Central Florida


Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Bracketology 1/12/17

1) Only one change among the at-large teams, as Marquette's win over Seton Hall jumps them into my field for the first time this year while NC State falls out thanks to a loss at Boston College. Considering how brutal the rest of the ACC is, that was a loss the Wolfpack really couldn't afford. Elsewhere, Dayton and Arkansas fall perilously close to the cutline with bad losses to UMass and Mississippi State, helping out the likes of Illinois and Texas Tech.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky, Baylor
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, UCLA
3: North Carolina, Butler, Xavier, West Virginia
4: Notre Dame, Louisville, Duke, Florida
5: Virginia, Arizona, Maryland, Oregon
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Purdue
7: Wisconsin, Clemson, USC, SMU
8: South Carolina, TCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
9: Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Indiana, Illinois
10: Iowa State, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Texas Tech
11: Dayton, (Arkansas/VCU), (Wake Forest/Marquette), Wichita State
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State
13: Boise State, Oakland, Vermont, Princeton
14: Ohio, Monmouth, Florida Gulf Coast, Lehigh
15: New Mexico State, UNC Asheville, Belmont, Fort Wayne
16: Weber State, UC Irvine, (North Carolina Central/Texas Southern), (Houston Baptist/Wagner)

First Four Out: North Carolina State, Rhode Island, Kansas State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, California, Central Florida, Georgia
Also Considered: Temple, Texas A&M, Providence, Illinois State, Mississippi, Houston, Nebraska, Ohio State, Colorado

Bids By Conference:
ACC (11), Big Ten (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (2), American (2), West Coast (2)