Thursday, February 11, 2016

Bracketology 2/11/16

I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix which you should definitely check out. All RPI data comes from Warren Nolan.

Here's today's bracket. Iowa State moves down to a 4 seed, Michigan State takes their spot on the 3 line.


Moving In: Texas Tech
Moving Out: LSU
First Four Out: Wisconsin, Clemson, Butler, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Chattanooga, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Bracketology 2/10/16

I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix which you should definitely check out. All RPI data comes from Warren Nolan.

I don't understand some people's stance on Connecticut- I've seen them as high as a 6 or 7 seed in some brackets which is just insane to me. The win @Texas is certainly nice, but their second best win is over a 10 seed on a neutral floor, and they have six losses to boot. None of those losses are bad (although Temple in Storrs almost qualifies) but when you add in an uninspiring RPI of 46, I see a very bubbly squad. Then again, I've been down on the American more than most this year.

Right now, I'm seeing the downside of giving autobids to conference leaders in February- LSU, Gonzaga and Temple are currently all February bid-stealers, if you will. 

1: Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa
2: Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina, Maryland
3: Iowa State, West Virginia, Xavier, Miami (FL)
4: Utah, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Dayton
5: Purdue, Texas, USC, Duke
6: Kentucky, Arizona, South Carolina, Notre Dame
7: Providence, Colorado, Baylor, Florida
8: California, Florida State, St. Mary's, Wichita State
9: Pittsburgh, Washington, Indiana, VCU
10: Syracuse, Oregon State, St. Joseph's, (George Washington/Michigan)
11: (Seton Hall/Connecticut), Monmouth, Valparaiso, San Diego State

12: Chattanooga, LSU, Arkansas-LR, Gonzaga
13: South Dakota State, Temple, Akron, Yale
14: Stony Brook, UNC-Wilmington, UAB, Hawaii
15: Tennessee Tech, New Mexico State, Stephen F. Austin, Montana

16: North Florida, UNC-Asheville, (Bucknell/Hampton), (Wagner/Texas Southern)

Moving In: Temple
Moving Out: Kansas State
First Four Out: Kansas State, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Texas Tech
Next Four Out: Clemson, Chattanooga, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Bracketology 2/9/16

I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix which you should definitely check out. All RPI data comes from Warren Nolan.

Not much movement yesterday, as most of the games were low-major matchups. Kansas State moves in for Clemson, however.

1: Villanova, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas
2: Virginia, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina
3: West Virginia, Maryland, Iowa State, Michigan State
4: Miami (FL), Utah, Texas A&M, Dayton
5: Texas, USC, Duke, Purdue
6: Kentucky, Arizona, South Carolina, Notre Dame
7: Providence, Colorado, Baylor, Florida
8: California, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Washington
9: St. Mary's, Wichita State, Indiana, VCU
10: Syracuse, Oregon State, St. Joseph's, (George Washington/Michigan)
11: (Seton Hall/Kansas State), Monmouth, Connecticut, Valparaiso

12: San Diego State, LSU, Arkansas-LR, Gonzaga
13: South Dakota State, Chattanooga, Akron, Yale
14: Stony Brook, UNC-Wilmington, UAB, Hawaii
15: Tennessee Tech, New Mexico State, Stephen F. Austin, Montana

16: North Florida, UNC-Asheville, (Bucknell/Hampton), (Wagner/Texas Southern)

Moving In: Kansas State
Moving Out: Clemson
First Four Out: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Texas Tech, Clemson
Next Four Out: St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt, Stanford, LSU

Monday, February 8, 2016

Bracketology 2/8/16

I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix which you should definitely check out. All RPI data comes from Warren Nolan.

Here's today's bracket, play-in games are very high up (10 and 11 lines!) but this is as much a product of a weak year for mid-majors as my strange rules for awarding autobids this time of year.


I'll start trimming the "Also Considered" list to a more reasonable size soon, but I want essentially every team with an at-large chance on there for now.

First Four Out: Stanford, Valparaiso, Kansas State, Wisconsin

Next Four Out: San Diego State, Texas Tech, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt

Also Considered: LSU, Butler, UCLA, Arkansas-LR, Gonzaga, Georgia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, William & Mary, South Dakota State, Temple, Alabama, Tulsa, Davidson, Creighton, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee, BYU, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Bracketology 2/4/16

I decided to do something different today, and make a bracket instead of a seed list. Enjoy!

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Bracketology 2/2/16

I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix which you should definitely check out. All RPI data comes from Warren Nolan.

Apologies for the lack of a Monday update, I wanted to re-evaluate every team and a simple typo screwed up my whole Excel sheet and I had to re-do a lot. Regardless, this seed list is heavily based off of my newly developed bracketology model. I ran the model for each of the last four seasons, and got a Paymon average of +1.5. I'll fine tune it a bit, but I'm pretty happy with those results.

1: Oklahoma, Villanova, Iowa, North Carolina
2: Xavier, Kansas, Oregon, Virginia
3: Iowa State, Maryland, Texas A&M, Michigan State
4: West Virginia, Louisville, Miami (FL), Utah
5: Texas, Dayton, USC, Providence
6: Purdue, Kentucky, Baylor, Colorado
7: Duke, Arizona, Florida, Pittsburgh
8: South Carolina, Michigan, Notre Dame, St. Mary's
9: California, Indiana, VCU, St. Joseph's
10: Washington, Wichita State, Syracuse, Florida State
11: Clemson, (Stanford/Gonzaga), Connecticut, (UCLA/Cincinnati)
12: Valparaiso, Monmouth, San Diego State, South Dakota State
13: Arkansas-LR, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, Akron
14: UC Irvine, Yale, Belmont, UNC-Wilmington
15: North Florida, UAB, Montana, Stephen F. Austin
16: New Mexico State, Winthrop, (Bucknell/Hampton), (Wagner/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Oregon State
Next Four Out: Monmouth, George Washington, Butler, Kansas State
Also Considered: Vanderbilt, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State, Georgetown, LSU, Alabama, Georgia Tech, South Dakota State, William & Mary, Evansville, Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, BYU, Boise State, Davidson, Creighton, Ohio State, Mississippi

Friday, January 29, 2016

Bracketology 1/29/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out.
2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid.
4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix.
5) Apologies for the lack of a Wednesday update, I had exams this week so I couldn't get around to it.
6) I did get a chance to run my bracketology model for the first time, and it received a Paymon score of 318, below the Bracket Matrix average. I'll have to fine tune it over the next couple of weeks.


1: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Xavier, Kansas
2: Villanova, Iowa, Oregon, Iowa State
3: Miami (FL), Michigan State, Virginia, Maryland
4: Texas A&M, Utah, West Virginia, Kentucky
5: Providence, Dayton, USC, Purdue
6: South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Louisville
7: Duke, Baylor, Pittsburgh, California
8: Michigan, Indiana, Colorado, Florida
9: St. Mary's, Wichita Sate, Notre Dame, St. Joseph's
10: Butler, Oregon State, Connecticut, Gonzaga
11: Cincinnati, VCU, (Seton Hall/Clemson), (Washington/Texas Tech)
12: Valparaiso, Monmouth, Chattanooga, South Dakota State
13: UC Irvine, San Diego State, Arkansas-LR, Stony Brook
14: Belmont, Kent State, Yale, UNC-Wilmington
15: North Florida, UAB, Texas A&M CC, New Mexico State
16: Montana, Winthrop, (Bucknell/Hampton), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)


First Four Out: Syracuse, Valparaiso, Stanford, UCLA


Next Four Out: George Washington, Vanderbilt, Boise State, Georgetown


Also Considered: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, Alabama, Florida State, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, LSU, Evansville, Marquette, Auburn, Davidson, Creighton, Ohio State