Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Bracketology 3/1/17

The biggest news of the night was Vanderbilt's total collapse at Kentucky- they could've put themselves in a very comfortable position with a win but now they're right on the cut line. They'll fall out if Illinois beats Michigan State tomorrow.

Aside from the aforementioned Illinois/Michigan State game, tomorrow's big bubble games include a huge opportunity for Wake Forest at home against Louisville, a Michigan/Northwestern matchup where the winner is probably a lock and a Kansas State/TCU game that might be an elimination game.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, Arizona
4: Florida State, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Iowa State, Maryland, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, Xavier, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State
9: Arkansas, Michigan State, VCU, Michigan
10: Wichita State, Northwestern, Providence, Seton Hall
11: USC, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: (Rhode Island/Vanderbilt), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, Belmont
14: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16:UC Irvine, North Dakota, (North Carolina Central/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Illinois, California, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Kansas State, TCU, Clemson, Houston
Also Considered: Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas Tech

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Pittsburgh, Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, February 27, 2017

Bracketology 2/28/17

I re-ran my model this afternoon, and it produced some interesting results. First, Gonzaga is now off my 1-line and Louisville is in their place. However, Louisville, Butler and the 4 2-seeds are all incredibly close to each other, and I think that any team on the 1 or 2 lines could end up with a 1 seed.

The other notable result was that Rhode Island shot up into my field, as my model is impressed with their RPI (44) and the fact that they have two RPI top 25 wins (Cincinnati and VCU).

Tomorrow's bubble action includes must wins for Georgetown (@ Seton Hall) and Indiana (@ Purdue) as both teams search for quality wins to move into the field. Elsewhere, Vanderbilt has a chance for the ultimate SEC marquee win at Rupp Arena and Providence will be attempting to avoid the ultimate Big East bad loss at home against DePaul.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky
3: Butler, Florida State, Florida, Arizona
4: Duke, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Maryland, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Iowa State
8: South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Miami (FL)
9: Arkansas, Michigan State, VCU, Michigan
10: Wichita State, Northwestern, Providence, USC
11: Seton Hall, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, (Syracuse/Vanderbilt)
12: (Illinois State/Rhode Island), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, Belmont
14: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16:UC Irvine, North Dakota, (North Carolina Central/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Illinois, California, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Kansas State, TCU, Clemson, Houston
Also Considered: Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Georgetown, Mississippi, Texas Tech, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Rhode Island
Moving Out: California
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Bracketology 2/27/17

Sunday was much quieter than Saturday, with the most notable results being Michigan State's win over Wisconsin that probably guarantees their safety, and Cincinnati's loss to UCF which probably kills their chances of a protected seed. Illinois also got an important win against Nebraska and USC dropped their 4th straight against Arizona State.

Monday's action will be entertaining, as Baylor must beat West Virginia to retain any hope of a 1 seed and North Carolina's grip on one will slip if they fall in Charlottesville. However, there's nothing going on on the bubble tomorrow.

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Arizona
3: UCLA, Florida State, Butler, Kentucky
4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Notre Dame
5: Minnesota, Duke, SMU, Virginia
6: Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Iowa State
7: Creighton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Dayton
8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Seton Hall, VCU
10: Xavier, Providence, Wichita State, Northwestern
11: Middle Tennessee, USC, Illinois State, (Syracuse/California)
12: UNC Wilmington, (Vanderbilt/Wake Forest), Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16: North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Illinois, Marquette, TCU
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Georgia, Indiana, Rhode Island
Also Considered: Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Houston, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, South Dakota
Moving Out: Marquette, Kansas State, North Dakota State
Removed From Consideration: Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Bracketology 2/26/17

Although I was expecting the biggest result of the day to come in the ACC, Gonzaga's first loss of the season at home to BYU was the big news of Saturday. I have Gonzaga on the 1 line for now but I may change that this week- the Zags have an RPI of 10 and no team with a double digit RPI has gotten a 1 seed since the tournament expanded to 68.

A quick roundup of the day's bubble winners:

Providence got a big comeback win against Marquette and is in the field if they win their last two regular season games (vs. DePaul and @ St. John's).

Miami (FL) is a lock after their win over Duke.

Iowa State is a lock after their win over Baylor.

Wichita State and Illinois State both cruised. I think it's highly unlikely the Shockers miss the field, and I think the Redbirds are in if they make it to the Arch Madness finals.


And the losers:

Clemson took another brutal one-possession loss and needs to win their last two regular season games and then make a serious run in the ACC tournament to have a shot.

VCU is not totally safe after their loss to Rhode Island. If they beat George Mason and make A-10 semis their fine, but fail to do either and it could get a bit dicey.

Kansas State lost by 30 points on the road to a deceptively good Oklahoma team, but it's still not a good look. A split of their next two and a loss in the Big 12 quarters will probably not be enough to get them in.

If Georgetown's at-large hopes weren't totally dead after they lost to DePaul, they certainly are after today's loss to St. John's.

Marquette will be on the nose of the bubble for the next two weeks. Winning their last two regular season games would probably put them in, though.

Northwestern is quickly hurtling towards bubble danger. 1 more win in the regular season or conference tournament should be enough, but if they lose out I don't think they'll get a bid.

Tennessee got whacked by South Carolina and absolutely has to finish the regular season 2-0.

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Arizona, Louisville
3: UCLA, Florida State, Kentucky, Butler
4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Duke, SMU
6: Virginia, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's
7: Iowa State, Creighton, Miami (FL), Dayton
8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, South Carolina
9: Arkansas, Xavier, USC, Michigan State
10: Seton Hall, VCU, Providence, Wichita State
11: Northwestern, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, (Illinois State/California)
12: UNC Wilmington, (Vanderbilt/Wake Forest), Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16: North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Marquette, Illinois, TCU
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Georgia, Indiana, Georgia Tech
Also Considered: Rhode Island, Mississippi, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Houston, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, South Dakota
Moving Out: Marquette, Kansas State, North Dakota State
Removed From Consideration: Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Bracketology 2/24/17

The biggest bubble result of the night was Georgia's win in Tuscaloosa, which bumped the Crimson Tide out of at-large consideration and put the Bulldogs within striking distance of the field. If Georgia wins their last 3 regular season games and makes the SEC semis I think they have a good shot at a bid. Ohio State also got a big win against Wisconsin to keep their faint hopes alive




Dayton is the only bubble team in action tomorrow night, although the Flyers are going to make the field barring a total collapse. However, a trip to Davidson is the kind of game that's a nightmare for a bubble team, as it's legitimately tough but a win is not going to gain much favor in the eyes of the committee.

1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame, SMU
6: Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina, Xavier
9: Arkansas, VCU, USC, Michigan
10: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Northwestern
11: Kansas State, Wichita State, (Providence/California), (Marquette/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Valparaiso, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, TCU
Next Four Out: Illinois, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Mississippi

Also Considered: Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Indiana, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, Houston, Georgetown
Moving In: North Dakota
Moving Out: Weber State
Removed From Consideration: Alabama

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/23/17

Last night was a huge one on the bubble- Providence jumps into the bracket for the first time in more than a month with a huge win @Creighton.  Other big bubble winners include Vanderbilt, who despite their hefty loss count is now in the First Four Out, and Syracuse who has climbed out of the first four. California lete a huge chance slip away as they blew a near-20 point lead against Oregon, and Tennessee moves out after a damaging home loss to Vanderbilt. A lighter slate tonight- from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Nebraska/Michigan State.

1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame
6: SMU, Virginia, Maryland, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina, Xavier
9: USC, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan
10: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Northwestern
11: Kansas State, Wichita State, (Providence/California), (Marquette/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Valparaiso, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, TCU
Next Four Out: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Mississippi, Clemson

Also Considered: Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, Houston, Georgetown, Alabama, Ohio State

Moving In: Providence
Moving Out: Tennessee
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Bracketology 2/22/17

Clemson is joining Texas Tech in the club of bubble teams that sure look like tournament teams but just can't catch a break. After their loss at Virginia Tech last night, Clemson probably need to go 3-0 down the stretch to have a chance at the tournament.

Last night was pretty uneventful for the bubble, but tonight promises to be different as Kansas State, Syracuse, California  and Seton Hall all have huge opportunities at home against teams safely in the field. Vanderbilt/Tennessee and Pittsburgh/Wake Forest have big implications as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Florida, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame
6: Creighton, SMU, Virginia, St. Mary's
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina
9: USC, Michigan State, Arkansas, VCU
10: Michigan, Northwestern, Kansas State, Wichita State
11: Seton Hall, California, (Tennessee/Marquette), (Illinois State/Syracuse) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Valparaiso, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: TCU, Providence, Wake Forest, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Mississippi

Also Considered: Clemson, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana, Rhode Island, Houston, UT-Arlington, Nevada, Alabama, Ohio State

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Monmouth, Penn State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2