Sunday, March 12, 2017

Bracketology 3/12/17 Evening

This is my final bracketology for 2017. I moved some teams around today- Michigan moved up to a 6 with their win over Wisconsin, among others. I am pretty confident with the at-large selections I've made, but the committee could throw a total curveball like they did last year with Tulsa.



1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Florida
4: UCLA, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, SMU
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan
7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Maryland, Arkansas
8: Dayton, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, VCU
9: Wichita State, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Oklahoma State
10: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Northwestern, Xavier
11: Marquette, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Providence, Kansas State, USC
12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky
15: Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota, Troy
16: Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, UC Davis, New Orleans, Mount St. Mary's, South Dakota State

Outside Looking In: Syracuse, Illinois State, Illinois, California, Georgia, Clemson

Bracketology 3/12/17 Morning

This is only my morning update- I'll have another final update after all of the championship games are done today.

I ran my model this morning and it produced some interesting results, such as Duke on the 1-line. Also, Rhode Island is in for Illinois State. I might swap in Syracuse for Rhode Island if the Rams lose to VCU today.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Oregon, Baylor, UCLA
4: Florida, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Cincinnati
6: Minnesota, SMU, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Michigan, Maryland, Dayton
8: Arkansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: South Carolina, VCU, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State
10: Seton Hall, Xavier, Michigan State, Northwestern
11: Marquette, Wake Forest, (Providence/USC), (Kansas State/Rhode Island)
12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky
15: Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota State, Texas State
16: Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's), (South Dakota State/UC Davis)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Illinois State, Illinois, California, Georgia, Clemson
 
Moving In: Rhode Island, Texas State, Kent State, UC Davis, New Mexico State
Moving Out: Illinois State, UT-Arlington, Akron, UC Irvine, Cal State Bakersfield
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, March 10, 2017

Bracketology 3/11/17

Fringe bubble teams dropped like flies today as Georgia, Indiana, TCU, California and Houston all lost must-win games and I think all five are totally out of consideration for an at-large. In my mind, the bubble is really down to just 6 teams- Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Illinois State, Rhode Island and Syracuse. Right now, there's 4 spots for those 6 teams but that could shrink in the case of bid stealers, and there's plenty of potential bid thieves still alive.

I'm pretty shaky on some areas of my seed list- the 3 and 4 lines are one area, as are the 9 and 10 lines. I'm going to run my model tomorrow afternoon to help sort that out.
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1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Oregon, Louisville, Florida State
3: Duke, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
4: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia, Florida
5: Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State
6: Creighton, Minnesota, SMU, St. Mary's
7: Wisconsin, Michigan, Miami (FL), Maryland
8: Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Wichita State
9: VCU, Northwestern, South Carolina, Oklahoma State
10: Xavier, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Seton Hall
11: Marquette, Wake Forest, (Providence/Kansas State), Middle Tennessee
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Rhode Island, Syracuse, Iowa, Illinois

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Georgia, Indiana, TCU, California, Houston

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Bracketology 3/10/17

I'm moving Iowa out of the field after their loss to Indiana, and I considered denoting them as a long shot as well. Teams with RPIs in the high 70s don't get simply don't get bids, and Iowa doesn't have the wins Syracuse does to counteract the unwieldy RPI. USC also hurt themselves today- I think they're probably still in but my guess is they'll be in a First Four game.

Today's bubble winners include Michigan State and Northwestern, who took care of business in the Big Ten Tournament and earned locks for it, as well as California and Indiana who got necessary wins. However, both teams still need at least one more win to have a serious shot.

However, the biggest bubble winners of the day were in the Big 12 where Kansas State vaulted into the field with a win over Baylor, and TCU dealt a blow to Kansas' #1 overall seed hopes as well. I think Kansas State is probably in even if they lose to West Virginia, although it's not a sure thing. TCU definitely needs at least one more win, possibly two, to counteract their 6-12 conference record, 14 losses, and RPI of 64.

1: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Oregon, Louisville
3: Baylor, UCLA, Duke, Florida
4: Arizona, Purdue, West Virginia, Notre Dame
5: West Virginia, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State
6: Minnesota, SMU, Maryland, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Dayton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL)
8: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Michigan
9: Wichita State, VCU, Xavier, Seton Hall
10: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Marquette
11: Wake Forest, Providence, (Kansas State/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Iowa, Houston
Also Considered: Illinois, TCU, Indiana, California, Georgia

Moving In: Kansas State
Moving Out: Iowa
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/9/17

I'm making a decision that I think most bracketologists will disagree with by dropping Syracuse out of the field. Their RPI is 84 and the worst RPI to get an at-large bid is 68. If other bubble teams lose, there's enough other good stuff on their resume that they still have a shot, but I think it's dependent on other bubble teams losing.

I think Wake Forest is in, and I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make it. Power conference teams with top-40 RPIs don't miss the tournament and their win over Louisville is as good as any other bubble team win.

Lots more bubble teams in action today. Illinois and Kansas State, among others, face must wins.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida State
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's
7: Dayton, Creighton, Miami (FL), Wisconsin
8: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Arkansas, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Providence
11: Xavier, Wake Forest, (USC/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: (Illinois State/Iowa), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Illinois, Kansas State
Also Considered: Houston, Georgia, California, Indiana

Moving In: Iowa
Moving Out: Syracuse
Removed From Consideration: Clemson, Ohio State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Bracketology 3/8/17

Most bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, so the bubble will be more interesting today after a few nights of stagnation. Clemson, USC, Xavier and Ohio State face must wins.

Not much changed as a result of yesterday's games- Gonzaga moved up the 2-line and St. Mary's moved down the 6-line.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida State
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's
7: Dayton, Creighton, Wisconsin, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
11: Providence, Xavier, (USC/Vanderbilt), (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Iowa, Rhode Island, Illinois, Kansas State
Also Considered: Houston, Clemson, Georgia, California, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

Moving In: South Dakota State
Moving Out: Nebraska-Omaha
Removed From Consideration: Georgia Tech

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Bracketology 3/7/17

I re-ran my model last night and it flipped Illinois State and Kansas State. However, from Providence to Clemson the margins are razor-thin, I can see any team in red getting a bid or getting left out. Speaking of the teams in red, I've introduced a color coding system- black means a team is either a lock or an auto-bid only, orange means a team should be in, red means a team is on the bubble and pink means a team is a long shot. The only bubble action today is in the ACC where Clemson and Wake Forest both face must-wins.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Louisville, Florida State, Gonzaga
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, St. Mary's, Maryland, Iowa State
7: Dayton, Creighton, Wisconsin, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
11: Providence, Xavier, (USC/Vanderbilt), (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: Princeton, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Iona, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Cal State Bakersfield, UC Irvine, North Dakota, Northern Kentucky
16: North Carolina Central, New Orleans, (Nebraska-Omaha/Jacksonville State), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Iowa, Rhode Island, Illinois, Kansas State
Also Considered: Houston, Clemson, Georgia, California, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

Moving In: Illinois State, Nebraska-Omaha
Moving Out: Kansas State, South Dakota
Removed From Consideration: None 

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2