Saturday, May 26, 2012

Baseball Picks May 25-31


Here's another week of picks for you.
April: 35-36 +0.91 units
May: 41-52 -3.99 units
2012: 76-88 -3.08 units
May 31:
If I win both of these, I'll be positive in May.
Dodgers +116 vs. Milwaukee -1 unit
Houston +113 @ Colorado -1 unit
May 30:
Blegh. Trying to shake things up today, 1-2 and 2-1 days are annoying.
Cardinals +110 @ Braves -1 unit
White Sox +130 @ Rays +1.3 units
Arizona +114 @ Giants +1.14 units
May 29:
Philly -108 @ Mets -1 unit
Yankees +124 @ Angels -1 unit
Reds -115 @ Pirates +0.87 units
May 28:
Dodgers +100 vs. Milwaukee -1 unit
Cardinals +110 @ Braves +1.1 units
Houston +110 @ Colorado (game 1) -1 unit
May 27:
Meh, I guess that's what happens when you pick 2 big underdogs.
Houston +150 @ Dodgers -1 unit
Pittsburgh -110 vs. Cubs +0.91 units
Tampa +105 @ Red Sox +1.05 units
May 26:
After that game yesterday, and considering the fact they're only a game under .500 (which most people don't realize) you're probably going to see me picking the Astros more often.
Oakland +165 vs. Yankees -1 unit
Sabathia is not that great, Bartolo Colon is decent, and the 2 teams have similar records. +165 is great value.
Cleveland +155 @ White Sox -1 unit
Derek Lowe is a machine right now.
Pittsburgh -118 vs. Cubs +0.85 units
The Cubs suck really bad, and Pittsburgh is halfway decent.
May 25:
Astros are good value today, and I'm compelled to pick the O's, as I'll be at Camden Yards tonight.
Cardinals +110 vs. Philly -1 unit
Houston +205 @ Dodgers +2.05 units
Baltimore -122 vs. Royals +0.82 unit

Friday, May 18, 2012

Baseball Picks May 18-24

April: 35-36 +0.91 units
May: 32-41 -3.08 units
2012: 67-77 -2.17 units
May 24:
Only 1 game I like on the short sked today.
Minnesota +145 @ White Sox -1 unit
May 23:
I needed that. I really like the Nationals today.
Giants +119 @ Brewers -1 unit
Washington +150 @ Phillies -1 unit
Dodgers -105 @ Arizona -1 unit
Cleveland +110 vs. Detroit +1.1 units
May 22:
Bad day yesterday :/ I've got a boatload of picks today. I'm not sure I can recover if I drop 5 or 6 of these.
Nats +145 @ Phillies +1.45 units
Miami -127 vs. Colorado +0.79 units
Houston -118 vs. Cubs +0.87 units
Giants +103 @ Brewers +1.03 units
Detroit +103 @ Cleveland -1 unit
Kansas City +166 @ Yankees -1 unit
May 21:
Mets -102 @ Pirates -1 unit
Baltimore +101 vs. Boston -1 unit
Atlanta +108 @ Cincy -1 unit
May 20:
Perfect weather for camping. I'm quite exhausted, but here are my picks.
Cardinals -115 @ Dodgers -1 unit
Baltimore +143 @ Washington -1 unit
Reds +170 @ Yankees +1.7 units
May 18:
Back in black!!! I'm not going to be able to make picks tomorrow, as I'll be camping.
Seattle +132 @ Colorado +1.32 units
Miami -105 @ Cleveland +0.95 units
Boston +135 @ Phillies -1 unit


Thursday, May 17, 2012

MLB Power Rankings: Week 6

Here we go again! Most teams are almost a quarter of the way through the season, so it's a good time to re-evaluate. All stats and such are through Wednesday May 16th. No commentary for teams 16-30 this week.
1: Rangers
It tells you how good a team is when they get swept by the Royals and remain number 1. The +77 run differential is otherworldly. Oh, and Yu Darvish has taken CJ Wilson's spot in the rotation reasonably well. Just reasonably.
2: Cardinals
I'd like to point out here that the Cardinals' run differential is more than double that of the next team, Atlanta. In that respect, the Cardinals and Rangers are in a class of their own.
3: Dodgers
Yes, this team can play baseball without Matt Kemp. Especially at home (where they're 16-4 so far this year).
4: Rays
Matt Moore will come around, hopefully (considering he's on my fantasy team). The ex-Devil Rays are actually have a sub-.500 road mark.
5: Orioles
Oh, I'm trying not to rank them any higher because I don't want to be biased. But you can feel the Orioles magic. Wei-Yin Chen has come up big this year, with an ERA of 2.45.
6: Braves
The Braves could very easily miss the playoffs, as everyone in the NL East can win the division (and it's not because it's a bad division. Heck, even the Mets have a chance with their -21 run differential.
7: Nationals
If the Nationals are in a tight race in September, which seems rather likely, I can't see that Strasburg's innings limit would be enforced.
8: Indians
They've won four in a row, including a demolition of Felix Hernandez (where I picked Seattle... grrr), and now sit 1.5 games behind the Rangers.
9: Marlins
Two shocking things about the Marlins. First, they're the only team in the majors better than 6-4 in their last 10 games. Second, there's been almost no drama this year, sans the Ozzie Guillen suspension a month ago.
10: Yankees
They're head deep in talent, and that's not going to change. And, they're only 4 games back of the divison-leading Orioles.
11: Reds
How much longer until Aroldis Chapman is starting? Hopefully soon. The Reds are only 2.5 games behind the run-differential maniac Cardinals.
12: Blue Jays
You really have to feel for these guys, playing in the terribly difficult AL East. They do have the best run differential in their division though.
13: Phillies
I'm not sure how long they can hover around .500 in a really tough division...
14: Tigers
My Tigers are falling, and they're falling fast. A 2-game sweep at the hands of the Twins is not what the doctor ordered, and the Indians are on a roll to make matters worse.
15: Red Sox
That's right, all five AL East teams in the top half. They're 6-4 in their last 10, and I really believe they're coming around for good.
***No commentary for the bottom half this week***
16: Giants
17: Athletics
18: White Sox
19: Mets
20: Angels
21: Royals
22: Diamondbacks
23: Astros
24: Brewers
25: Pirates
26: Mariners
27: Padres
28: Rockies
29: Cubs
30: Twins
That's all for now!

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Baseball Picks May 11-17

I need to rethink my strategy after a roller coaster week.
April: 35-36 +0.91 units
May: 24-29 -0.29 units
2012: 59-65 +0.52 units
May 17:
Finally getting the ball rolling again.
Houston +136 vs. Milwaukee +1.36 units
Cardinals +110 @ Giants -1 unit
Baltimore +116 @ Kansas City +1.16 units
May 16:
Seattle -115 @ Cleveland -1 unit
Baltimore +120 @ Kansas City +1.2 units
Miami +105 @ Atlanta +1.05 units
May 15:
Dodgers -132 vs. Arizona -1 unit
Arizona sucks right now.
Baltimore +142 vs. Yankees +1.42 units
This is a good value for the O's with Chen pitching at hone.
Rays -105 @ Blue Jays +0.95 units
Price is on a roll right now.
May 14:
Really like Oakland today.
Houston +165 @ Philly -1 unit
Oakland +175 @ Angels +1.75 units
Baltimore +102 vs. Yankees -1 unit
May 13:
These are the times that I'm so happy I don't use real money. New strategy today.
Cleveland +130 @ Boston -1 unit
Cardinals -140 vs. Atlanta -1 unit
Detroit -175 @ Oakland +0.57 units
May 12:
Cubs are +172 and the Brewers are -170 at different places today. Interesting.
Cardinals -116 -1 unit
Cubs +172 -1 unit
Nats +113 +1.13 units
May 11:
Nats beat the Pirates once I finally pick the Pirates, and the Yankees win. I don't even know...
Toronto -135 @ Minnesota -1 unit
Oakland +110 vs. Detroit +1.1 units
Cleveland +111 @ Boston -1 unit

MLB Power Rankings: Week 5

Another week, another set of power rankings! I think it's nice to do them on a Thursday, since most rankings come out on Mondays. That way there are updated rankings the whole week. Anyways, here we go. All records, stats and analysis are through last night (May 9).
1: Rangers
The Rangers have a very small lead over Saint Louis, but they've ground a decent Orioles team into the infield dirt in the last two games.
2: Cardinals
Baseball's Pythagorean Theorem currently has the Cardinals at 122-40. Obviously that's blind extrapolation, but pretty impressive anyways. Oh, and they're finally playing teams not in the NL Central. We could have a rematch World Series...
3: Rays
Now that we've moved away from the two teams with ridiculous scoring margins,we have the Rays. Sans Longoria, they're still 7-3 in their last 10.
4: Dodgers
Despite the fact that Matt Kemp has cooled off some, but you have to like the 12-3 home record, and the .500 road mark.
5: Braves
They're 3 games over .500 on the home and the road. Coolstandings has them at a 55% playoff chance. They have this spot over the Nationals by virtue of scoring margin and the Nats' losing streak.
6: Orioles
Look, the Rangers are really good. Scary good. Whenever I see the Rangers playing my Orioles, I'm reminded of the 30-3 game a few years back where a Texas pitcher got a save.
7: Yankees
Yes, David Robertson is unreliable. This team is just chock full of talent, and they're only 3.5 games behind the rays.
8: Nationals
You can't do that against the Pirates, especially when I'm consistently picking you in that series. Gah.
9: Reds
Ah, my World Series pick (again). Finally coming around. The 7-3 mark in the last 10 is behind only the surprising Marlins.
10: Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are still getting no publicity, no attention, and have a better record than the Yankees. I guess that's what you get for playing in Canada (and not playing hockey).
11: Tigers
I feel like I just roll a dice to decide which reliever will blow the game for us. I've got my money on Joaquin Benoit tonight.
12: Athletics
Yes, this is really high. But who am I going to put here. The Mets? This team could make a surprise run. Brandon Inge starts producing the second the Tigers drop him, too.
13: Giants
Dig up your "Giants lose 1-run game as bats remain silent" headlines without Sandoval.
14: Marlins
Hey, if the A's are this high the Marlins have to be. 8-2 in their last 10 is nothing to sneeze at. I'm shocked this team isn't talked about more, considering the flashy rebranding.
15: Diamondbacks
They had a really slow start last year, too. It's not like they're playing in a tough division that will stop them from winning streaks.
16: Indians
Two wacky things about this team. First, they have a substantially worse scoring margin than the White Sox, who are 3 games behind them. Second, they're 8-10 at home and 9-3 on the road.
17: Mets
They've won five in a row, and they're five above five hundred. (That's a lot of fives). The -18 scoring margin indicates this will not last.
18: Astros
I'll say it now. I will not be surprised if this team gets 80 wins. They've got a +9 margin, and they've played a pretty tough schedule so far.
19: Phillies
You know it's bad when the Mets sweep you.
20: White Sox
Up. Down. Up. Down. Up. Down. Despite all of the Phillip Humber craziness and other craziness, they're the only team in the AL Central with a positive scoring margin.
21: Mariners
They're 10-17 against teams not named Detroit.
22: Brewers
Greinke's start yesterday was absolutely wasted. They're doing as I expected
23: Angels
Hey, 7-3 in their last 10! Maybe they'll finally come around.
24: Red Sox
That recovery to 10-10? Down the drain.12-18 is not exactly satisfactory.
25: Rockies
This team is scoring almost exactly the same as it's allowing, which can't be said of the rest of the rankings.
26: Pirates
They're surprisingly 1 game below .500.
27: Cubs
What does this team have going for them? Really?
28: Padres
How on earth do they have a team ERA of 3.33? I know they play in Petco, but still.
29: Royals
It's really amazing that the AL Central teams have such bad records playing against Kansas City and Minnesota.
30: Twins
What happened to the Twins? Their turn for the worse was quite sudden.
That's all for this week.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Baseball Picks May 4-10

This post will have my picks this week.
April 2012: 35-36 +0.91 units
May 2012: 14-19 -0.82 units
2012: 49-55 +0.09 units
May 10:
Just fade me. Seriously.
Tampa +124 @ New York -1 unit
Cleveland +135 @ Boston +1.35 units
Pittsburgh +155 vs. Washington -1 unit
May 9:
Whelp. There goes my great month. A whopping 5 picks today. I could be down to -2.12 by tomorrow.
Washington +101 @ Pittsburgh -1 unit
Cardinals -113 @ Arizona +0.86
Giants +120 @ Dodgers -1 unit
Texas -128 @ Baltimore
Detroit -120 @ Seattle -1 unit
May 8:
Guess I'm bound to have days like that.
Washington -110 -1 unit
Edwin Jackson is better than AJ Burnett.
Tampa +120 -1 unit
Nova's ERA is not very good this year.
Boston -128 -1 unit
The Royals are incompetent.
May 7:
The homer drought is over!!! Angels will regain their mojo now. Amazed at my performance recently. Only 2 games I like today.
Giants +148 @ Dodgers -1 unit
Detroit -128 @ Seattle -1 unit
May 6:
After the Oakland game ended yesterday, I was +8.28 units on the year, and 10-5 and +7.37 units in May. That's pretty impressive. Not very confident on anything today though, the Mariners are probably my favorite play.
Cincy -125 @ Pittsburgh +0.8 units
Seattle -125 vs. Minnesota +0.8 units
Toronto +130 @ Angels -1 unit
May 5:
That's what I call a good day. My bad luck turned around for a one run win and an extra innings win.
Washington -125 vs. Philadelphia +0.8 units
Oakland +150 @ Tampa Bay +1.5 units
Toronto +155 @ Angels -1 unit
May 4:
2 1-run beats yesterday. I'm pretty amazed that I'm in the black.
Arizona -105 @ Mets +0.95 units
Not getting this line. Atlanta's starter is playing a lot better.
Baltimore +160 @ Boston +1.6 units
A team 8-2 in their last 10 is good value at +160, especially against a team with a losing record.
Toronto +115 @ Angels +1.15 units
The Angels still suck, even after the no-hitter.


Thursday, May 3, 2012

MLB Power Rankings: Week 4

Rankings through Wednesday May 2nd.
1: Rangers
The grip on this spot is slipping, as the Rays have a better winning percentage.
2: Rays
The Rays are on pace for 112 wins, but losing Longoria hurts. 112 wins would be nice, considering Matt Moore and David Price are on my fantasy team.
3: Dodgers
My list of studs is short. Matt Kemp is most definitely on that list.
4: Cardinals
The only reason they aren't higher than this is the fact that they are 0-0 against teams above .500. The only games the Cardinals have played against teams not in the NL Central is the season opener against Miami. These top four teams are a tier of their own right now.
5: Braves
Tough spot to fill. Pure winning percentage would put the Orioles here (!!!) and the Nationals behind them. Chipper Jones is defying Father Time, putting the Braves in this spot.
6: Yankees
The rotation is lacking right now, for sure. This team is a lot better than their record indicates.
7: Orioles
My O's are 8-2 in their last 10. Only teams in the majors better than 6-4 in that category right now? All in the AL East (Rays 9-1, O's 8-2, Red Sox 7-3).
8: Blue Jays
Yes, I did it. 4 AL East teams in the top 8.
9: Diamondbacks
They have as good a chance as any in the NL West this year.
10: Tigers
I'm sorry, my Tigers are just not that good right now. The loss to the Royals with Verlander pitching was demoralizing. He almost had a loss in a 2-run, 6-hit, 8 inning outing.
11: Reds
Ah, my World Series pick. Finally digging themselves out of the doldrums.
12: Nationals
Some Bryce Harper magic stopped the losing streak. He's another outfielder deserving of  my rare "stud" tag.
13: Indians
Somehow, someway, this team is on top of the AL Central. I say they spend 10 more days in first the rest of this season.
14: Phillies
Once their infield returns from DL hibernation, they should win the NL East.
15: Red Sox
The 7-3 record lately makes me put them in the top half of the rankings.
16: White Sox
A middling .500 team with talent. The 16 spot is tailor-made for these guys.
17: Brewers
They'll recover from this bad start, but probably not to the playoffs.
18: Giants
Timmy needs to get out of his hole, and the bullpen is slacking.
19: Mets
The Mets are my last over .500 team in my rankings. That brings me to a question. How are the Mets above .500?
20: Athletics
This team has potential, if Billy Beane doesn't trade it all away. I wonder what the moneyline is on Yoenis Cespedes finishing the year with another team. I'd say -120.
21: Rockies
You know it's not good when this is the team I need to think about for a second when I'm naming all the teams in the MLB. They've really fallen off the radar since the Jimenez trade (and they're really not that much worse).
22: Angels
Before I get decapitated for putting the Angels this low, even after the no-hitter, let me remind you the Astros have a better record.
23: Mariners
I was high on the Mariners after the sweep of the Tigers, and then a 5-game losing streak happened. Whelp.
24: Astros
Surprisingly, the Astros have won 3 in a row.
25: Pirates
Looks like it'll be 20 losing seasons in a row.
26: Marlins
Man, have these guys dropped off the mainstream ESPN radar.
27: Padres
Two words on why they're this high: Edison Volquez.
28: Royals
So much for me predicting these guys 2nd in the AL Central.
29: Cubs
Uggh, why did I take Carlos Marmol on my fantasy team. Just because he was once a Lansing Lugnut?
30: Twins
The .250 winning percentage makes this my easiest placement.
That's all for now!