Monday, December 31, 2012

Bracketology 1/1/13

Well, it's time for my first bracketology of the 2013 season! I know this is getting published on New Year's Eve, but it's dated 1/1 because it includes the games of 12/31. For the next few weeks, I'll publish a bracket every Monday, and sometime in late January I'll begin making a bracket on Fridays as well. The schedule will accelerate from there. The seed list snakes, meaning you can read a column down for a region. Teams in bold have auto-bids. The pairings follow the seed list.

1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Louisville
2: Florida, Indiana, GonzagaKansas
3: Illinois, Syracuse, Minnesota, Creighton
4: UNLV, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Butler,
5: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Ohio State, VCU,
6: Colorado, Notre Dame, Missouri, Kansas State,
7 :North Carolina, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Michigan State
8: Kentucky, Wichita State, Temple, Wyoming,
9: Maryland, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Oregon
10: Colorado State, Memphis, UCLA, Wisconsin
11: Belmont, Boise State, Marquette, California,
12: Illinois-Chicago, Tennessee/Iowa State,  Murray State/Mississippi, Baylor
13: Middle Tennessee, Akron, North Dakota State, Canisius
14: Bucknell, Louisiana Tech, Davidson, George Mason
15: Harvard, Stony Brook, Weber State, UC-Irvine
16: (Stephen F Austin/Southern) (North Carolina Central/Florida Gulf Coast) UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Last Four In:
Murray State
Tennessee
Iowa State
Mississippi

First Four Out:
LSU
Iowa
Stanford
Seton Hall

Next Four Out:
Saint Louis
Arizona State
La Salle
Indiana State

East (Washington DC)

Lexington:
1 Duke vs. 16 (Stephen F Austin/Southern)
8 Wyoming vs. 9 Oregon
Salt Lake City:
4 Butler vs. 13 Middle Tennessee
5 Cincinnati vs. 12 Illinois-Chicago
Kansas City:
3 Creighton vs. 14 Bucknell
6 Colorado vs. 11 Belmont
Dayton:
2 Indiana vs. 15 Harvard
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Colorado State

South (Arlington)

Lexington:
1 Louisville vs. 16 Robert Morris
8 Kentucky vs. 9 Maryland
San Jose:
4 UNLV vs. 13 Canisius
5 VCU vs. 12 Baylor
Auburn Hills:
3 Illinois vs. 14 George Mason
6 Notre Dame vs. 11 California
Kansas City:
2 Kansas vs. 15 UC-Irvine
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Memphis

Midwest (Indianapolis)


Auburn Hills:
1 Michigan vs. 16 (North Carolina Central/Florida Gulf Coast)
8 Wichita State vs. 9 Miami (FL)
Philadelphia:
4 Georgetown vs. 13 Akron
5 New Mexico vs. 12 Tennessee/Iowa State
Philadelphia:
3 Syracuse vs. 14 Louisiana Tech
6 Kansas State vs. 11 Boise State
Austin:
2 Florida vs. 15 Stony Brook
7 Oklahoma State vs. 10 UCLA

West (Los Angeles)


Salt Lake City:
1 Arizona vs. 16 UNC-Asheville
8 Temple vs. 9 Pittsburgh
Austin:
4 North Carolina State vs. 13 North Dakota State
5 Ohio State vs. 12 Murray State/Mississippi
Dayton:
3 Minnesota vs. 14 Davidson
6 Missouri vs. 11 Marquette
San Jose:
2 Gonzaga vs. 15 Weber State
7 San Diego State vs. 10 Wisconsin


Thursday, December 27, 2012

Pick Tracker Update: December 27 and News+Notes

Hey guys! First of all, I'm going to address a few things about the blog:
1) I will not be doing NFL Picks this week. Week 17 has historically been an awful week for me, and the psychology of fighting for a playoff berth and resting your starters does not sit well with me. I will be making picks during the playoffs. Because this is the first year I've been doing picks in the playoffs, I'll likely tone down the units.
2) My first bracketology will go up sometime in the next week, probably New Year's Day. I'm already putting my ducks in a row with regards to making the first bracket of the year.
3) My NBA picks may or may not be making a return. I'm leaning towards bringing them back, but we'll see.

All Picks:
+$5057 (50.57 units)


NFL:
NFL Picks Week 7 2012: +$1105 (+11.05 units)
NFL Picks Week 8 2012: -$1150 (-11.5 units)
NFL Picks Week 9 2012: +$1162 (+11.62 units) 
NFL Picks Week 10 2012: +$580 (+5.8 units)
NFL Picks Week 11 2012: +$8 (+0.08 units)
NFL Picks Week 12 2012: +$129 (+1.29 units)

NFL Picks Week 13 2012: -$64 (-0.64 units)
NFL Picks Week 14 2012: +$330 (3.3 units)
NFL Picks Week 15 2012: +$220 (2.2 units)
NFL Picks Week 16 2012: +$2267 (22.67 units)

NFL 2012: +$4587 (+45.87 units)

NBA:
NBA Oct+Early Nov: -$160 (-1.6 units)
NBA Late Nov: -$45 (-0.45 units)

NBA Early Dec: +$210 (2.1 units)


NBA 2012-13: +$5 (0.05 units)
Other Sports Picks Page:
Other Sports Picks 2012: +$465 (+4.65 units)



Saturday, December 22, 2012

NFL Picks Week 16

Game 1: Atlanta @ Detroit +3.5
Saturday Night Football? Does this mean I have to clear my schedule Saturday night and Sunday night? The Falcons are coming off a home dismantling of the Giants that few people saw coming. The Lions have had close games with good teams lately (Houston and Green Bay come to mind). I'm putting 0 units on the home dog, but I'll place some units if the spread climbs.
Detroit +3.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 2: Tennessee @ Green Bay -10.5
I feel that, more than any other NFL team, the Titans have no identity. They have CJ2K, but even the Dolphins and the Bills have the perennial loser tag attached to them. As for the actual team, Tennessee is in a rut. The Packers are absolutely on fire, and this game could be crucial for playoff seeding purposes. I'll go Green Bay.
Green Bay -10.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 3: Oakland @ Carolina -9
The Raiders won by 15 last week, and their defense did not allow Kansas City to get a first down for quite some time. However, their red zone offense stalled, bringing on five field goals. The Panthers are on a tear lately, and have proven they can blow out bad teams. I'll go Carolina for that reason.
Carolina -9 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Buffalo @ Miami -5
The Bills really could use a new quarterback this offseason. Sadly for them, there are no really good QB prospects this year, but Geno Smith or Tyler Wilson could fly up boards. The Dolphins still have a chance to finish 8-8 if they win out, shockingly. I think of these teams as about equal. I'll lay a unit on the visitor for that reason.
Buffalo +5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 5: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh -3
Both of these teams desperately need this game. These are likely going to be the two teams racing for the final wild card spot in the AFC. The Bengals are again proving all their doubters wrong by making a march in the direction of the playoffs under the leadership of Andy Dalton. The Steelers have looked very shaky, especially last week against Dallas where they uncharacteristically lost a big lead in a big game. Something is wrong with the Steelers, they haven't been playing normal since Roethlisberger was injured.
Cincinnati +3 (3 units) +$300
Game 6: New England @ Jacksonville +14
I have to admit, 14.5 points is a TON to lay on the road. Just imagine if this was in Foxborough. I expected this line to be 11 or so, not this high. The Patriots are, in my opinion, the best team in football. The Jaguars, however, are 2nd worst behind Kansas City. The Jaguars are in a pretty good spot, but I'm not comfortable laying units on the awful Jaguars against the steamroller Patriots.
New England -14 (0 units) -$0
Game 7: Indianapolis @ Kansas City +5
Oh my, the Vegas hates the Colts game continues! The Colts can clinch a playoff berth with a win. The Chiefs are a complete joke, which I learned the hard way last week when I had 3 units on them and they completely fell apart. They're in a position to get the #1 pick in an awful April draft class. I have a gut feeling that there's something too good to be true about this. I'm still going Indy for 2.
Indianapolis -5 (2 units) +$200
Game 8: New Orleans @ Dallas -3
Shockingly, the 6-8 Saints are still in playoff contention in a competitive NFC. They are, in my opinion, a legitimate Super Bowl contender over the next 5 years. If they manage to upgrade the horribly porous defense, they should challenge Atlanta for the NFC South. The Cowboys, are in my opinion, the imposter contender in the NFC East. I like the Saints for 2 units here, everyone is over-valuing Dallas after they beat a strange Pittsburgh team.
New Orleans +3 (2 units) +$200
Game 9: Washington @ Philadelphia +4.5
RG3 will start this game, but I can't say I'm convinced that Kirk Cousins is that much of a drop-off from him after his performance last week. The 'Skins are a charismatic team that can go places long term. However, I think the Eagles have completely mailed it in. If there's one NFL coach who would let his players mail it in, it's the incompetent Andy Reid. However, we saw how discombobulated the Steelers have been since they lost Roethlisberger, so I'm curbing this play.
Washington -4.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 10: Saint Louis @ Tampa Bay -3
The Rams are, in my opinion, the most underrated team in the league. Before they lost to an also underrated Minnesota team last week, they had won 3 in a row. They're 2-0-1 against San Francisco and Seattle. Meanwhile, the wheels are falling off in Tampa Bay. They lost to the awful Eagles and then were pasted by the Saints. My one worry here is that Tampa is coming off a huge loss, which makes me want to curb my bet on the Rams. But Saint Louis is my favorite play this week.
Saint Louis +3 (4 units) +$400
Game 11: New York Giants @ Baltimore +2.5
Despite their pasting at the hands of Atlanta last week, I still think the Giants are one of the 6 best teams in the NFC. In the regular season, Atlanta is a complete steamroller when they want to be. Do people forget the Giants pasted Green Bay and the 49ers? The Ravens are finally coming down to where they belong on earth, and they're looking like the 5th best team in the AFC. Give me a unit on the Giants and their December magic.
New York Giants -2.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 12: San Diego @ New York Jets -2.5
Can I throw up at this one? It's almost as bad as Kansas City vs. Oakland last week. What a joke. You have to believe that Norv Turner's days in San Diego are numbered and almost up. Ryan Matthews' complete dissapointment of a year certainly didn't help. The Jets have an extremely favorable schedule, closing the year with Arizona, Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego and Buffalo. Sheesh. I'll go Jets for 0, I think McElroy might be hungry for a statement.
New York Jets -2.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 13: Minnesota @ Houston -7.5
As I eluded to in the Saint Louis write-up, the Vikings are quite underrated in my mind. Ponder is a servicable quarterback, and this team reminds me of the 2011 49ers (great RB, OK QB). On the other side, the Texans are going to have some difficulty getting up for this game in between their 2 tilts against the Colts. This game just doesn't mean much to Houston, I'll lay 3 units on the visitor.
Minnesota +7.5 (3 units) +$300
Game 14: Cleveland @ Denver -11
The Browns have lost by more than 13 just once since mid-October, and that was last week to the Redskins who are on fire. The Broncos are a tough cookie to crack for me. They've been a massive winning streak since the amazing comeback against San Diego in October. They've played 3 games against other teams that have clinched their division already (New England, Houston and Atlanta) and are 0-3 in those contests. I'll lay a unit on the Browns, who I don't think should be getting 13 against anyone.
Cleveland +11 (1 unit) -$110
Game 15: Chicago @ Arizona +7
People say the Bears are falling apart and are going to finish .500, but I disagree. Look at the teams they've lost to recently: Houston, San Fran, Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle. 4 of those within a possesion. I think they deserve to finish about 10-6. They'll win out, and I think they're going to get the #6 seed and play Green Bay in Lambeau. The Cardinals' win last week was much more about the Lions' incompetence than Arizona's competence. Chicago for 3.
Chicago -7 (3 units) +$300
Game 16: San Francisco @ Seattle -2.5
This is a playoff preview game here, and it's going to be a good one. Many people are billing San Francisco as the best team in the league, but I still think the Patriots are better. An argument can be made either way. Seattle is unbeatable at home and shaky on the road. However, it seems they may have fixed that against Chicago and Buffalo. I can't bet against either team, so I'll go with the Seahawks' home dominance.
Seattle -2.5 (0 units)

Teaser: Indianapolis -1, Washington -0.5, Chicago -1 +160 (2 units) +$320
Moneyline: Saint Louis +140 (1.5 units) +$210
Moneyline: Cincinnati +167 (1 unit) +$167

NFL Week 16: +$2267 (22.67 units)
NFL 2012: +$4587 (45.87 units)

Thursday, December 13, 2012

NFL Picks Week 15

Game 1: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia +2.5
Sorry about my lack of write-ups last week. I still did pretty good, and my phone is working again! So I can actually post this week. The Bengals are certainly very interesting, and still tied for the last playoff spot despite the shocking loss to Dallas at the last second. Nick Foles may be coming around, but Cincy needs this game.
Cincinnati -2.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 2: Green Bay @ Chicago +2.5
I have no idea why the Packers aren't being discussed as co-favorites for the NFC. I'd say Green Bay and the Giants have the best shot at winning the conference. The Packers may have finally found a good running back in Alex Green. The Bears are possibly sliding out of the playoffs. I have no read here, so I'll go with the home dog.
Chicago +2.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New York Giants @ Atlanta -1.5
I feel there's a lot of even matchups this week. Good teams are playing other good teams and bad teams are playing other bad teams. Should make 1 PM RedZone pretty entertaining! I'm shocked there isn't more action on Atlanta. Is public perception of the 11-2 Falcons that bad? The Giants are finally going on their late season tear, but I'm going to lay off the play here because Atlanta is quite solid.
New York Giants +1.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 4: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans -3.5
Do you see my point? Almost all the games have a line within 4 or so points of -3. The Bucs are finally crashing back down to earth, just like their fellow 6-7 squad they play here. However, I think Drew Brees will go off. The Saints are playing for pride, and they're just stronger than Tampa (especially in the Superdome).
New Orleans -3.5 (2 units) +$200
Game 5: Minnesota @ Saint Louis -3
2 teams I think are really undervalued are facing off in this one. The Vikings would be in playoff position if their division wasn't so brutal, I think. The Rams are playing solid football under Sam Bradford, and they're quite capable of beating anybody. I planned on making a big play on the Rams this week until I realized who they were playing. I'll put 2 units on Minny.
Minnesota +3 (2 units) +$200
Game 6: Washington @ Cleveland -2
Well, a line has finally been posted now that RG3 has been ruled out and Kirk Cousins is starting in his place. I am going to attempt to not to pick Cousins at every opportunity, considering he was MSU's starting QB for numerous years. The Browns are playing respectable football again, but I don't think they can stop the train that is the Redskins. Even if Cousins is only serviceable, the rest of the offense is good. Gimme Skins for 3.
Washington +2 (3 units) +$300
Game 7: Jacksonville @ Miami -7.5
Jacksonville vs. Miami. Yet another stinkfest between two teams that are all but eliminated for the playoffs (well, the Jaguars ARE eliminated). The Jaguars were playing good football under Chad Henne, but have been slipping. The Dolphins have the 6-and-6 rule working against them, which is you don't lay 6 or more points on a team that will win 6 or less games. I'll put a unit on the Jags.
Jacksonville +7.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 8: Denver @ Baltimore +3
I feel like Denver is the Super Bowl contender I know the least about. Sure, they have Manning, but I feel as if they haven't been tested lately. Baltimore's fluke of a record is finally starting to catch up with them, as Cam Cameron has been shown the door at OC. I've got no read here, the Ravens don't often lose at home.
Baltimore +3 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Indianapolis @ Houston -10
Well, this is an interesting situation. A team that can clinch a playoff berth this week is a double digit underdog. The Colts have a lot of media hype behind them with Andrew Luck and Chuckstrong. The Texans lost last week, and they beat a solid Baltimore team into the ground the week after their first loss. Because of that, I'll limit my wager on Indy.
Indianapolis +10 (1 unit) -$110
Game 10: Carolina @ San Diego -3
The Panthers are having the sophomore slump year with Cam Newton I predicted. However, they have won 2 of their last 3 including a shocking win over Atlanta. The Chargers snapped a 7 out of 8 skid (with the one win against KC, which shouldn't count with how bad the Chiefs are) by beating Pittsburgh last week. I've got no feel for this one.
San Diego -3 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: Detroit @ Arizona +6.5
Whoa, whoa. I know Arizona has lost nine in a row, but the Lions do not deserve to be a 6.5 point road favorite against anyone in this league except maybe Jacksonville or Kansas City. The Lions also have practically every wide receiver on their roster injured. Against teams the Lions are similar to that the Cards have played (Philly, Miami, Rams twice, Buffalo, Jets) they're 4-2 against a +6.5 spread. Cards for 2.
Arizona +6.5 (2 units) +$200
Game 12: Seattle @ Buffalo +5
The Seahawks are coming off a 58-0 dominating win against Arizona. That puts a very interesting spin on this game psychologically, especially when you factor in the fact that Seattle has 2 division games after this against better teams than Buffalo. The Bills have covered +5 at home every week since September 30th, even if this one is in Toronto. I'll go 0 units on Seattle.
Seattle -5 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Kansas City @ Oakland -3
Oh, this game has to be christened the ultimate toilet bowl. The Chiefs have actually showed signs of something besides complete incompetence over the last few weeks, but the Raiders have not. Oakland has lost 6 in a row, and they have not covered -3 at home all year (even against the likes of Jacksonville). I think KC sucks considerably less than Oakland. 3 units on the visitor.
Kansas City +3 (3 units) -$330
Game 14: Pittsburgh @ Dallas +1.5
Both of these teams desperately need this game for their playoff hopes. If the Steelers lose, they'll fall a crucial game behind Cincy in the race for the last AFC spot. If the Cowboys lose, they could fall 2 games behind the Giants for the NFC East with 2 games to play. I have no feel here, leaning towards Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 15: San Francisco @ New England -4
Murder's row for the Patriots. Houston, now San Francisco. For the 49ers, they travel to Seattle after this one where the Seahawks are undefeated on the year. Colin Kaepernick has showed mild signs of regression, but I expect him to improve again now that the spotlight is off him. However, Brady and the Pats are the most solid, complete team in the league and have been that way for years. 2 units on the host.
New England -4 (2 units) -$220
Game 16: New York Jets @ Tennessee -1.5
And this is what we get for Monday night? Really? The overhyped Jets take on the completely identity-less Titans. Mark Sanchez is holding onto his job by the skin of his teeth in New York, and I think Rex Ryan could be out after this year. Meanwhile, the Titans have lost 5 of 6 since a promising start. I think I'll go Tennessee for no units.
Tennessee -1.5 (0 units) +$0

NFL Week 15: +$220 (2.2 units)
NFL 2012: +$2320 (23.2 units)

Sunday, December 9, 2012

NFL Picks Week 14

I couldn't write-up my picks this week cause my phone broke. Hopefully it'll be repaired soon, but here are my picks:
Washington -1.5 (2 units) +$200
Indianapolis -3.5 (3 units) +$300
Jacksonville +3 (3 units) -$330
Atlanta -3.5 (1 unit) -$110
Saint Louis +3 (3 units) +$300
Cincinnati -3 (2 units) -$220
Miami +10.5 (1 units) -$110
New York Giants -4.5 (2 units) +$200
New England -3.5 (1 unit) +$100

Total NFL Week 14: +$330
Total NFL 2012: +$2100

Saturday, December 1, 2012

NFL Picks Week 13

I was done with the first 3 games, tried to upload it and my Blogger app swallowed it into nothingness. Interesting.
Game 1: New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5
Finally, an interesting Thursday nighter. No more Dolphins/Bills, Vikings/Buccaneers etc. The Saints are on fire, really playing well since their pitiful 0-4 start. The Falcons have a history of squeaking by at home this year against bad teams like Arizona. I like the Saints for 1.5, keeping it low because I can't get a read on Thursday games.
New Orleans +3.5 (1.5 units) -$165
Under 56 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Seattle @ Chicago -3
Huh? How are the Bears not at least 6 to 7 point favorites? Seattle is not a good team on the road, and an elite team at home. The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFC. I think that Russell Wilson is going to start to falter on the home stretch, so I'm going with the Bears for 2.2 units because I think they're significantly better than Seattle.
Chicago -3 (2.2 units) -$242
Over 37 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Minnesota @ Green Bay -7.5
If you're wondering why I'm wagering strange amounts like 2.2 units, check out the post I just made about bankroll
management. What used to be a 3 unit pick is now 2.2. The Vikings have proved they're likely not progressing past the Wild-card round after a drubbing from the Bears last week. The Packers aren't getting any respect after the Giants game, do people forget they killed Houston? A unit on Green Bay.
Green Bay -7.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 47 (0 units) -$0
Game 4: San Francisco @ Saint Louis +7.5
The 49ers come into this game having declared Colin Kaepernick the starting quarterback, which I don't believe is the right move. The 49ers got on the wrong path last week when they didn't put Alex Smith in at quarterback. You need to have stability at QB, and having the inexperienced Kaepernick quarterbacking your team in the playoffs doesn't sound ideal to me. Onto this game, I'm a little hesitant to pick either side. I think the 49ers are more than 10 points better than the Rams. I'm not comfortable making a play against the Rams in this spot, who have had so much variance this year.
San Francisco -7.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 5: Arizona @ New York Jets -6
The Cardinals are quite a strange team to get a read on after their 4-0 start. How will they respond to traveling cross country when they're all but eliminated from the playoffs? What about the Jets, who have a split locker room? I'll place a unit on 'Zona.
Unit Change: This line has gone way up. Zona for $170.
Arizona +6 (1.7 units) +$170
Over 37 (0 units) -$0
Game 6: Carolina @ Kansas City +5.5
For the second week in a row, the Panthers are road favorites! Cam Newton looks like he finally found his stride this year against Philly last week, but them again it is the Eagles. The Chiefs showed some life as well, keeping the Denver game close. I'm going to pick the spot, not the team, and fade the bad team that's a road favorite on short rest.
Unit Change: Both sides are unbettable after the tragedy.
Carolina -5.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 41.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 7: Indianapolis @ Detroit -7
Huh? The 4-7 Lions are supposedly better than the 7-4 Colts? I understand the Colts aren't as good as their record may indicate and that the Lions may be better than theirs, but what? Andrew Luck is very solid and Vick Ballard is better than most give him credit for, and the Colts are more than a hoax. Contrarily, the Lions are undisciplined and lack a solid ground option. I'm limiting my play to 2.2 units because this seem too good to be true.
Unit Change: What on earth is going on here? Detroit by 7???
Indianapolis +7 (2.2 units) +$220
Under 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Jacksonville @ Buffalo -6
Buffalo as a 5.5 point favorite? I understand this is the Jaguars, but still. The Jaguars may have finally discovered how to play football, with a win over the Titans and a close game with the Texans under their belt. The Bills are really one of the most unremarkable teams in the NFL, but they're on long rest after a Thursday nighter. I don't get this line. Jags for 3.
Jacksonville +6 (3 units) -$330
Over 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 9: New England @ Miami +7
Oh no, a huge road favorite. I hate these lines. The Pats are most definitely going to be a contender for the AFC, and they might be the leading contender right now. The Dolphins are better than most think, and could become surprise playoff contenders if they string together some W's. I don't have a read here, so I'm not going to manufacture one. My gut tells me Miami, so the Dolphins it is.
Miami +7 (0 units) +-$0
Over 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 10: Houston @ Tennessee +6
I wonder how many people are going to be teasing Houston to PK. Spoiler alert, I probably will. The Texans are probably not as good as their 10-1 record would indicate because of the soft AFC. However, they've proven that they could be a solid team for years to come (possibly more on that in a column this weekend). The Titans may be down because they're out of playoff contention. Houston for 1.7.
Houston +6 (1.7 units) +$170
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 11: Tampa Bay @ Denver -7.5
The Bucs are a quality team, and my pick to get the 6th playoff spot in th NFC. I think that Josh Freeman can become an Alex Smith like game manager type of QB. I'm fading the Broncos, everyone has been loving them all year with Peyton, but you're not elite without a real running game. TB for 1.7.
Tampa Bay +7.5 (1.7 units) -$187
Under 50 (0 units) -$0
Game 12: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore -7.5
It's the return of the Pittsburgh fumbling circus, with fossilized ring leader Charlie Batch! However, they're playing the overrated Ravens. I don't think the Steelers can replicate their 8 fumble performance, while most people seem to have forgotten the Ravens' near losses to teams like KC. Pitt for 2.2. I'm putting a unit on the over, as I think the Pittsburgh offense will step up.
Pittsburgh +7.5 (2.2 units) +$220
Over 36.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 13: Cleveland @ Oakland +2.5
The Browns are almost a 3 point favorite traveling to the west coast. I guess that tells you just how awful the Raiders are. Why on earth did I start Carson Palmer last week? The Brownies are starting to play respectable football, and Trent Richardson may be their franchise player of the future. However, I'm not comfortable laying units on a 3-8 team that's a solid road favorite.
Cleveland -2.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 38.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 14: Cincinnati @ San Diego +1
The Bengals are quite impressive, and they're my pick to get the 6th and final AFC playoff spot. Andy Dalton is another guy who has the potential to be a solid game manager over the next fee years. The Chargers are dysfunctional and cursed by the Norv Turner factor. I'll lay a unit on Cincy.
Cincinnati -1 (1 unit) +$100
Under 46 (0 units) +$0
Game 15: Philadelphia @ Dallas -10.5
OK, I'm about to hop on a plane and need to get this pick in. Long story short, I have no read here.
Philadelphia +10.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 16: New York Giants @ Washington +3

Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Teaser: Jacksonville +12, Houston PK (2 units) -$220

NFL Picks Week 13: -$64

NBA Picks Early December

NBA Picks 2012: +$5

12/1
Philadelphia @ Chicago -6.5
I like the 76ers here, I don't think Chicago is that good and Philly is 10-6.
Philadelphia +6.5 (0.5 units) +$50

Oklahoma City @ New Orleans +8.5
The Hornets are injury-riddled, I like the Thunder here.
Oklahoma City -8.5 (0.8 units) +$80

Memphis @ San Antonio -6.5
I think that the Grizzlies are quite underrated, and I'm not sure San Antonio will be ready for this game after the recent drama surrounding the mass benchings.
Memphis +6.5 (0.8 units) +$80