Thursday, February 28, 2013

Bracketology 2/28/13

News/Notes:
1) Well, I may have said yesterday that if it was up to me, Michigan would not be sniffing the 1-line. Well, Penn State happened. 
2) Lots of teams holding serve last night, with a notable exception being Oklahoma getting Kabongo'd.

1: Indiana, Duke, Miami (FL), Gonzaga
2: 
Michigan State, Georgetown, Louisville, Kansas, 
3: New Mexico, Florida, Michigan, Arizona
4: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Marquette
5: Ohio State, Minnesota, Butler, Oklahoma State 
6: Illinois, Colorado State, Pittsburgh, UNLV
7: Notre Dame,  North Carolina State, VCU, Oregon
8: 
Oklahoma, Missouri, Cincinnati, Saint Louis
9: Colorado, UCLA, San Diego State, North Carolina
10: La Salle, Iowa State, California, Memphis
11: Wichita State, Middle Tennessee, Temple, Boise State
12: Belmont, (Kentucky/Baylor), (Saint Mary's/Mississippi), Creighton
13: Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin
14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso, 
South Dakota State
15: Mercer, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Robert Morris), (Norfolk State/High Point), Southern, Northeastern


Last Four Byes:
Middle Tennessee
Temple
Boise State
Creighton

Last Four In:
Kentucky
Saint Mary's

BaylorMississippi

First Four Out:
Belmont
Villanova
Maryland
Virginia
Next Four Out:
Louisiana Tech
Tennessee
Saint John's

Arizona State
Also Considered:
Massachusetts
Indiana State
Southern Miss
Akron

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Bracketology 2/27/13


News and Notes:
1) Instead of the whole bold italic underline thing from the last bracket, I'm going with the following system:

Locks are green
Should be in's are yellow
Right on the bubble teams are orange
Fringe bubble teams are red
Auto-bids or bust are in black
2) Tennessee appears! I'm not putting them in my First Four Out, but they've jumped out of the fringes of the bubble conversation.
3) I may make some re-evaluation updates to the bracket tomorrow. We'll see.
4) Remember the seed list snakes, so Indiana is the top 1, Michigan the top 2, New Mexico the top 3, Marquette the top 4, etc.
1: Indiana, Duke, Miami (FL), Gonzaga
2: Georgetown, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan 
3: New Mexico, Michigan State, Florida, Arizona
4: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Marquette
5: Ohio State,Minnesota,  Butler, Oklahoma State 
6: Illinois, Colorado State, Pittsburgh, UNLV
7: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, VCU
8: Missouri, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Oregon

9: Colorado, San Diego State, UCLA, Wichita State
10: Iowa State, California, Memphis, North Carolina, 

11: La Salle, Middle Tennessee, Temple, Boise State
12: Belmont, (Kentucky/Baylor), (Saint Mary's/Mississippi), Creighton
13: Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin
14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso, 
South Dakota State
15: Mercer, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Robert Morris), (Norfolk State/High Point), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes:
Middle Tennessee
Temple
Boise State
Creighton

Last Four In:
Kentucky
Saint Mary's
Mississippi
Baylor

First Four Out:
Belmont
Villanova
Maryland
Virginia

Next Four Out:
Louisiana Tech
Tennessee
Arizona State
Saint John's

Also Considered:
Massachusetts
Indiana State
Charlotte
Southern Miss
Akron
Arkansas

Monday, February 25, 2013

Bracketology 2/25/13

News/Notes:
1) Ouch! You want to talk about playing yourself out of the field? Lose at home by 20 to a fellow bubbler and fall to .500 in a conference where a .500 team is likely not getting in. That'll sting for Charlotte. But Temple moves into the Last Four Byes, and is strengthening their position. Charlotte is out of my "really on the bubble" list.
2) Saint John's has something to say in the home blowout loss department, getting killed by Pitt. They were the last team in, and Mississippi takes their place.
3) I heard commentators during games yesterday say that Cincinnati and Illinois were both right on the bubble. Say what?
4) New feature: teams who are locks are in normal font, teams who are in the "should be in" are in italics, teams "really on the bubble" are in bold and "bubble fringe" teams are underlined. (Small conference auto-bids are also in normal).
5) Remember, the seed list snakes, so Indiana is the top #1 seed, Michigan the top 2, New Mexico the top 3, 'Zona the top 4, etc.

1: Indiana, Duke, Miami (FL), Gonzaga
2: Louisville, Kansas, Florida, Michigan
3: New Mexico, Michigan State, Georgetown, Syracuse
4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Arizona
5: Marquette, Butler, Oklahoma State, UNLV,

6: Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado State, Pittsburgh,
7: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, VCU
8: Cincinnati, Memphis, Saint Louis, Oregon
9: Missouri, Colorado, San Diego State, UCLA
10: California, Wichita State, North Carolina, Iowa State
11:
La Salle, Middle Tennessee, Temple, Boise State
12: Belmont, (Kentucky/Villanova), (Saint Mary's/Mississippi), Creighton
13: Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin
14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso,
South Dakota State
15: Mercer, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Robert Morris), (Norfolk State/High Point), Southern, Northeastern




Last Four Byes:
Middle Tennessee
Temple
Boise State
Creighton

Last Four In:
Villanova
Kentucky
Saint Mary's
Mississippi

First Four Out:
Baylor
Belmont

Maryland
Virginia

Next Four Out:
Louisiana Tech
Arizona State
Saint John's
Massachusetts

Also Considered:
Indiana State
Charlotte
Southern Miss
Tennessee
Akron
Arkansas

Sunday, February 24, 2013

College Basketball Picks: Final 3 Weeks

My college basketball picks are back! I've had a lot if internet issues lately, including staying at a hotel for 2 weeks where the internet did not work in my room. I've been able to update my bracketology, but sites to get the lines on have been blocked by the business center internet. Anyways, I'm back home, so my picks should be back on track!
College Basketball Picks 2012-13: +$665 (6.65 units)
College Basketball Picks Final 3 weeks: -$65 (-0.65 units)
2/25
Villanova @ Seton Hall +4.5
Easy pick here for me. Seton Hall is awful, 'Nova has shown signs of life.
Villanova -4.5 (1.5 units) -$165
2/24
Northwestern @ Purdue -6
Northwestern is not on the same level as Purdue, who has taken down some of the Big 10's better teams this year. There's more than a 2-point gap between these teams.
Purdue -6 (1 unit) +$100

Bracketology 2/24/13

News/notes:
1) This update includes games through 2/23. Even though Saint John's just got pasted by Pittsburgh and will be out of the bracket, that and other Sunday games are not reflected in this bracket.
2) For the first time in a while, more teams played their way into the bracket than played there way out of the bracket. Villanova, Temple, Saint Mary's and Kentucky played their way in, while only Mississippi and Arizona State played their way out (Baylor kind of just slid out).
3) Creighton is in increasingly hot water after a BracketBusters loss. 
4) Belmont and Louisiana Tech's positions on the "First 4 out" and "Next 4 out" lists are indicative of where they would be without the auto-bid.
5) I'd draw the "bubble line" I spoke of last update in between La Salle and Middle Tennessee on the top end, and between Arizona State and UMass on the low end. This puts 16 teams on the bubble.
6) Remember the seed list snakes! This means Indiana is the top 1, Michigan the top 2, New Mexico the top 3, Arizona the top 4, Butler the top 5, etc.

1: Indiana, Duke, Miami (FL), Gonzaga
2: Michigan State, Kansas, Florida, Michigan 
3: New Mexico, Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse 
4: Marquette, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Arizona
5: Butler, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Ohio State
6: Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Colorado State, Illinois 
7: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, Notre Dame
8: Memphis, Saint Louis, Oregon, VCU
9: Missouri, Colorado, San Diego State, UCLA
10: California, Wichita State, North Carolina, Iowa State 
11: La Salle, Middle Tennessee, Boise State, Creighton
12: Belmont, (Kentucky/Saint John's), (Saint Mary's/Temple), Villanova
13: Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Akron, Stephen F Austin

14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso, 
South Dakota State
15: Mercer, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Robert Morris), (Norfolk State/High Point), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes: 
Middle Tennessee
Boise State
Creighton
Villanova

Last Four In:
Kentucky
Saint Mary's
Temple
Saint John's

First Four Out:
Mississippi
Baylor
Belmont
Charlotte

Next Four Out:
Maryland
Virginia
Louisiana Tech
Arizona State

Also Considered:

Massachusetts
Indiana State
Southern Miss
Tennessee


Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Bracketology 2/20/13

Some news and notes: 
1) Michigan State was going to be my 4th 1 seed had they beaten the Hoosiers last night. Alas, my Spartans lost and they take a tumble down the 2 line.
2) In my mind, there are 14 teams squarely on the bubble. These are my last 7 in and my first 7 out (Mississippi to Massachusetts). 
3) A lot of bubble action tonight can change that. Ole Miss, Saint John's, Boise State, Southern Miss and Baylor all have big games tonight.
4) I may do some bubble watches in the upcoming weeks. We'll see.
5) Remember the seed list snakes, so Indiana is the top 1 seed, Michigan the top 2, Syracuse the top 3, K-State the top 4, etc.

1: Indiana, Miami (FL), Florida, Duke 
2: 
Michigan State, KansasGonzaga, Michigan 

3: Syracuse, New Mexico, Louisville, Arizona
4: 
Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Kansas State
5: Colorado State, Marquette, Butler, Minnesota
6: 
Ohio State, Illinois, Cincinnati, North Carolina State

7: Pittsburgh, Oregon, UNLV, Notre Dame
8: Colorado, VCU, Oklahoma, Missouri
9: San Diego State, UCLA, Wichita State, Memphis, 
10: Iowa State, Creighton, La Salle, Saint Louis
11: North Carolina, Mississippi, California, Boise State
12: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, (Arizona State/Saint John's), (Baylor/Villanova
13: Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, 
Akron, Stephen F Austin

14: Davidson, Harvard, South Dakota State, Valparaiso
15: Mercer, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Robert Morris), (Norfolk State/High Point), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes: 
North Carolina
Mississippi
California
Boise State

Last Four In:
Baylor
Saint John's
Arizona State
Villanova

First Four Out:
Temple
Kentucky
Southern Miss

Charlotte

Next Four Out:
Saint Mary's
Maryland
Virginia
Massachusetts

Also Considered:
Air Force
Iowa
Wyoming 
Alabama

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Bracketology 2/17/13

Some news and notes (encompasses this bracket and the last):
1) Before my Saturday bracket, I did another re-evaluation of the teams, and moved some teams drastically up or down (Cal, Virginia, Illinois etc.)
2) The Last Four Byes group is really intriguing. Creighton and Mississippi are both falling like a stone, especially the Bluejays. Meanwhile, Cal and Maryland are shooting up through the bubble.
3) Kentucky took a very steep tumble. If they play like this without Nerlens Noel, they're NIT-bound.
4) Illinois' progression this year really is quite astounding. From protected seed to bubble to middle of the bracket. We'll see where they are come Selection Sunday. 
5)  The top 2 lines remain very fluid. I'm pretty confident that the top 9 teams on the S-curve are the top 9 teams, but the order is a complete mess. I think the 1-seed debate will be especially heated this year.
6) Interesting tidbit: 6 out of the first 8 teams out of the field are from non-power conferences.
7) The bracket is after the seed list.

Selection Sunday is only 4 weeks away! Here's the seed list. Remember it snakes, so Indiana is the top 1 seed, Michigan is the top 2, Syracuse the top 3, K-State the top 4, etc.


1: Indiana, Miami (FL), Florida, Duke 

2: KansasGonzaga, Michigan State, Michigan 
3: Syracuse, New Mexico, Louisville, Arizona
4: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Georgetown, Kansas State
5: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Colorado State, Marquette
6: Cincinnati, North Carolina State, Butler, Pittsburgh
7: VCU, Illinois, Oregon, UNLV
8: Memphis, UCLA, Colorado, Oklahoma
9: San Diego State, Notre Dame, La Salle, Wichita State
10: North Carolina, Saint Louis, Iowa State, Missouri
11: Creighton, Mississippi, California, Maryland
12: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, (Baylor/Saint John's), (Arizona State/Boise State
13: Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin, Akron
14: Davidson, Harvard, Western Illinois, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Bryant), (North Carolina Central/UNC-Asheville), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes:
Creighton
Mississippi

California
Maryland

Last Four In:
Boise State
Baylor
Saint John's
Arizona State

First Four Out:
Villanova
Temple
Kentucky
Wyoming


Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Charlotte
Saint Mary's
Massachusetts

Also Considered:
Stanford
Air Force
Virginia
Arkansas

I had to move a few teams between seed lines in the bracket for bracketing purposes. Here's a list:
Kansas State (4 to 3)
Oklahoma State (5 to 4)
Arizona (3 to 4)
Wisconsin (4 to 5)
Here's the bracket! Winner of the Indianapolis regional plays the winner of the Los Angeles regional in the final 4, DC plays Dallas.

Indianapolis

Dayton
1 Indiana vs. 16 (Niagara/Bryant)
8 Memphis vs. 9 La Salle

San Jose
4 Arizona vs. 13 Louisiana Tech
5 Colorado State vs. 12 (Baylor/Saint John's)

Philadelphia
3 Syracuse vs. 14 Davidson
6 North Carolina State vs. 11 Creighton

Kansas City
2 Kansas vs. 15 Florida Gulf Coast
7 Illinois vs. 10 Saint Louis


Los Angeles

Philadelphia
1 Duke vs. 16 Northeastern
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Wichita State

Austin
4 Minnesota vs. 13 Akron
5 Marquette vs. 12 (Arizona State/Boise State)

Dayton
3 Louisville vs. 14 Valparaiso
6 Butler vs. 11 Maryland

Auburn Hills
2 Michigan vs. 15 Long Beach State
7 Oregon vs. 10 Missouri


Washington DC

Lexington
1 vs. 16 (North Carolina Central/UNC-Asheville)
8 vs. 9 Notre Dame

San Jose

4 Oklahoma State vs. 13 Bucknell
5 Ohio State vs. 12 Middle Tennessee


Salt Lake City
3 New Mexico vs. 14 Harvard
6 Cincinnati vs. 11 Mississippi

Salt Lake City
2 Gonzaga vs. 15 Montana
7 VCU vs. 10 Iowa State


Dallas

Lexington
1 Florida vs. 16 Southern
8 Coloradovs. 9 San Diego State

Austin

4 Georgetown vs. 13 Stephen F Austin
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Belmont


Kansas City
3 Kansas State vs. 14 Western Illinois
6 Pittsburgh vs. 11 California

Auburn Hills
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Stony Brook
7 UNLV vs. 10 North Carolina


Saturday, February 16, 2013

Bracketology 2/16/13


1: Duke, Miami (FL), Indiana, Florida
2: Gonzaga, KansasMichigan State, Michigan 
3: Syracuse, New Mexico, Louisville, Arizona
4: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas State, Georgetown,
5: Ohio State, Colorado State, Butler, Oklahoma State
6: Colorado, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Oklahoma, VCU, Illinois,  Cincinnati
8: UNLV, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Oregon
9: Missouri, Memphis, UCLA, La Salle
10: Mississippi, Creighton, Iowa State, Wichita State
11: North Carolina, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Baylor
12: Belmont, (Boise State/Virginia), (Massachusetts/Southern Miss), Middle Tennessee, 
13: Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin, Akron
14: Davidson, Harvard, Western Illinois, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Bryant), (North Carolina Central/UNC-Asheville), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes:
North Carolina
Kentucky
Saint Louis
Baylor

Last Four In:
Boise State
California
Massachusetts
Saint John's

First Four Out:
Charlotte
Southern Miss
Wyoming
Stanford

Next Four Out:

Air Force
Maryland
Arizona State
Villanova


Also Considered:

Indiana State
Virginia
Saint Mary's
Temple