Sunday, March 17, 2013

Bracketology 3/17/13 Evening

News/Notes:

1) This seed list is FINAL.
2) I did some re-evaluations this morning. Not many changes occurred.
3) Mississippi with a very, very clutch win over Florida. They may have persuaded me to pick them to win their first round game with that victory.
4) Well, at the bubble level, I'm pretty confident with who I have in, and who I have out. The old "add the KenPom + RPI" trick to determine who is in and who is out works with what I have.
5) I'll probably put up a bracket to accompany the seed list between now and 6:00. Just for the heck of it.
6) I'll also post my bracket picks by Wednesday afternoon, and sometime in the next two weeks I'll create a mock 96-team bracket for this year.
7) Good luck to all of my fellow bracketologists this year. I will be sweating and biting my nails and screaming at the TV just as much as all of the rest of you guys.

1: Louisville, Gonzaga, Indiana, Duke
2: Ohio State, New Mexico, Georgetown, Kansas 
3: Miami (FL), Michigan State, Florida, Michigan
4: Kansas State, Marquette, Saint Louis, Wisconsin
5: Syracuse, Arizona, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6: Pittsburgh, UCLA, MemphisButler
7: VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, North Carolina
8: North Carolina State, Oregon, Creighton, Illinois
9: Minnesota, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Missouri
10: Mississippi, Iowa State, Belmont, Colorado
11: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Villanova, Temple
12: Bucknell, (Boise State/California), (La Salle/Middle Tennessee), Saint Mary's
13: Akron, Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Davidson
14: Montana, Northwestern State, Harvard, South Dakota State
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Albany, Iona, Pacific
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (North Carolina A&T/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Oklahoma
Saint Mary's
Villanova
Temple

Last Four In:
California
Boise State
La Salle
Middle Tennessee

First Six Out:
Tennessee 
Kentucky
Virginia
Alabama
Maryland
Southern Miss

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Bracketology 3/17/13 Morning



News/Notes:


1: Gonzaga, Louisville, Indiana, Duke
2: Ohio State, Michigan State, Georgetown, Kansas 
3: New Mexico, Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Florida
4: Kansas State, Saint Louis, Marquette, Michigan
5: Syracuse, Arizona, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6: Butler, UCLA, Memphis, VCU
7: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Colorado State, Notre Dame
8: Minnesota, North Carolina State, Oregon, Illinois
9: San Diego State, Creighton, Cincinnati, Missouri
10: Wichita State, Iowa State, Belmont, Colorado, 
11: Oklahoma, Villanova, Temple, Mississippi
12: Bucknell, (Boise State/California), (La Salle/Middle Tennessee), Saint Mary's
13: Akron, Northwestern State, South Dakota State, New Mexico State
14: 
Montana, Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Albany, Iona, Pacific
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (North Carolina A&T/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Villanova
Temple

Mississippi

Saint Mary's

Last Four In:
California
La Salle
Boise State
Middle Tennessee

First Six Out:
Tennessee 
Kentucky
Virginia
Alabama

Maryland

Southern Miss

Friday, March 15, 2013

Bracketology 3/16/13


News/Notes:

1) Well, hello Maryland! That win over Duke is great, but they need to be the Tar Heels tomorrow to move into the bracket. It's rough when you go 8-10 in the ACC, I know.
2) I think it's unfair to consider Southern Miss a bubble team. If they lose to Memphis, they won't make tournament. If they do beat Memphis, they'd be in good enough position to probably get an at-large (but beating Memphis would give them the auto-bid). Would they still count as a bid stealer in that case?
3) Tennessee and Kentucky both got some losses they did not want today. Tennessee is in a better position because they were ahead of the 'Cats originally, and 
4) Let's set some realistic boundaries around the bubble:
I could conceivably see anyone from Villanova down playing in the First Four.
I would be flabbergasted to see anyone from Temple up miss the tournament.
I would be surprised if Saint Mary's, California or La Salle missed the tournament.
I would be quite surprised to see Kentucky or Virginia get in.
5) I'll do my final re-evaluation for the year this evening. 

1: Indiana, Gonzaga, Duke, Louisville
2: Miami (FL), Georgetown, Michigan State, Kansas 
3: New Mexico, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida
4: Marquette, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Syracuse
5: UNLV, Butler, Arizona, Saint Louis
6: Pittsburgh, VCU, Oklahoma State, UCLA
7: North Carolina State, Memphis, Colorado State, Notre Dame
8: San Diego State, Minnesota, Illinois, North Carolina
9: Creighton, Oregon, Cincinnati, Missouri
10: Wichita State, Iowa State, Belmont, Colorado, 
11: Oklahoma, Villanova, Temple, Saint Mary's
12: Bucknell, (Boise State/California), (La Salle/Middle Tennessee), Mississippi
13: Akron, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State, New Mexico State
14: 
Montana, Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Iona, Pacific
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (Morgan State/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Villanova
Temple
Saint Mary's
Mississippi

Last Four In:
California
La Salle
Boise State
Middle Tennessee

First Six Out:
Tennessee 
Maryland
Alabama
Southern Miss
Kentucky
Virginia

Bracketology 3/15/13


News/Notes:
1) I would say Illinois/Minnesota was the best finish of the day. And then I remembered about Charlotte/Richmond.
2) Maryland will move into the "First Seven Out" if they beat Duke today. I wouldn't get your hopes up, Terps fans. I think they're going to need 2 more wins to crack my field
3) The WAC is pissing me off. Both La Tech and Denver were going to be some of my tourney sleeper teams. Well, looks like it'll be New Mexico State now.

1: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2: Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Miami (FL), Ohio State, New Mexico, Florida
4: Marquette, Kansas State, Syracuse, Arizona
5: Butler, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, UNLV
6: Pittsburgh, Colorado State, VCU, Saint Louis
7: Notre Dame, UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina
8: Minnesota, North Carolina State, San Diego State, Illinois
9: Missouri, Creighton, Oregon, Cincinnati
10: Temple, Belmont, Colorado, Iowa State 
11: Wichita State, Oklahoma, La Salle, Villanova
12: Bucknell, (Boise State/Kentucky), (California/Tennessee), Saint Mary's
13: Akron, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State, New Mexico State
14: 
Montana, Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Iona, Long Beach State
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (North Carolina A&T/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Oklahoma
La Salle
Villanova

Saint Mary's

Last Four In:
California
Tennessee
Boise State
Kentucky


First Seven Out:
Virginia
Middle Tennessee
Mississippi 
Arkansas
Iowa
Alabama

Baylor
Southern Miss

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Bracketology 3/14/13


News/Notes:
1) That win all but locks up a bid for Villanova. They can't suffer a loss to a non-tournament team now, and they're 7 teams from the cutline.
2) Boise State did not impress in the Mountain West tourney and is now squarely on the bubble.
3) Grambling State completes their winless season! I don't know why ESPN isn't talking about this.
4) The seed list snakes. This means that Duke is the top 1 seed, Georgetown the top 2, Miami the top 3, Marquette the top 4 etc.

1: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2: Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Miami (FL), Ohio State, New Mexico, Florida
4: Syracuse, Kansas State, Arizona, Marquette
5: Butler, Wisconsin, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6: Colorado State, VCU, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis
7: UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina, Notre Dame
8: North Carolina State, San Diego State, Illinois, Minnesota
9: Cincinnati, Missouri, Creighton, Colorado
10: Temple, Oklahoma, Belmont, Oregon
11: Iowa State, Wichita State, Villanova, California
12: Lousiana Tech, (Boise State/Kentucky), (Saint Mary's/Tennessee), La Salle
13: Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State
14: 
Montana, Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Iona, Long Beach State
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (Savannah State/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Wichita State
Villanova
California
La Salle

Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Tennessee
Boise State
Kentucky



First Seven Out:
Virginia
Middle Tennessee
Baylor
Mississippi 
Arkansas
Iowa
Alabama
Southern Miss

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Bracketology 3/13/13


News/Notes:
1) Really nothing worth talking about here. All I did was bold the 3 teams that won auto-bids.

2) There will be more to discuss tomorrow, I hope. We've got more games involving tourney teams coming up.
3) Seed list snakes, blah blah blah.

1: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2: Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Miami (FL), Ohio State, New Mexico, Florida
4: Syracuse, Kansas State, Arizona, Marquette
5: Butler, Wisconsin, Saint Louis, Oklahoma State
6: Colorado State, VCU, UNLV, Pittsburgh

7: UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina, Notre Dame
8: North Carolina State, Illinois, Cincinnati, Minnesota
9: San Diego State, Missouri, Creighton, Colorado
10: Temple, Oklahoma, Belmont, Oregon
11: Iowa State, Wichita State, California, Villanova
12: Lousiana Tech, (La Salle/Kentucky), (Saint Mary's/Tennessee), Boise State 
13: Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State
14: 
Montana, Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Iona, Long Beach State
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (Norfolk State/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Wichita State
California
Villanova
Saint Mary's


Last Four In:
La Salle
Saint Mary's
Tennessee
Kentucky


First Seven Out:
Baylor
Virginia
Middle Tennessee
Mississippi 
Arkansas
Iowa
Alabama
Southern Miss

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bracketology 3/12/13

News/Notes:
1) I decided to be honest with myself. None of the teams I had in the Also Considered column are getting in the field short of an auto-bid (OK, if Maryland, Air Force or U-Mass go on a conference tourney run, maybe). So I eliminated that section, and all the teams out of the field listed on the page are in the "First Seven Out" list.
2) Re-evaluations happened again! Not as many changes this time. North Carolina moved up a lot, Wichita State moved down, Temple moved up, Middle Tennessee moved down, etc.
3) Just for kicks, I threw Connecticut's profile into my re-evaluation formula. They popped up as a nine seed.
4) In case you haven't noticed, teams who have won an auto-bid are in bold
5) Seed list snakes, blah blah blah. You know the drill by now.

1: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2: Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Miami (FL), Ohio State, New Mexico, Florida
4: Syracuse, Kansas State, Arizona, Marquette
5: Butler, Wisconsin, Saint Louis, Oklahoma State
6: Colorado State, VCU, UNLV, Pittsburgh7: UCLA, Memphis, 
North Carolina, Notre Dame
8: North Carolina State, Illinois, Cincinnati, Minnesota
9: San Diego State, Missouri, Creighton, Colorado
10: Temple, Oklahoma, Belmont, Oregon
11: Iowa State, Wichita State, California, Villanova
12: Lousiana Tech, (La Salle/Kentucky), (Saint Mary's/Tennessee), Boise State 
13: Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State
14: 
Montana, Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Iona, Long Beach State
16: (Southern/LIU-Brooklyn), (Norfolk State/Liberty), Western Kentucky, James Madison

Last Four Byes:

Wichita State
California
Villanova
Saint Mary's


Last Four In:
La Salle
Saint Mary's
Tennessee
Kentucky



First Seven Out:
Baylor
Virginia
Middle Tennessee
Mississippi 
Arkansas
Iowa
Alabama
Southern Miss

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Bracketology 3/11/13


News/Notes:
1) Can Liberty get the "Worst team ever in the tournament" award? Their RPI is 299. Their best win prior to the Big South tournament was against RPI #245 Western Carolina. I'm not kidding.

2) Yesterday I talked about how Minnesota is 8-10 in conference. Well, Illinois is too, now. I'm not going to drop the pair down to the 10-line or so as others are, but the alarm bells for a first round exit are ringing loud.
3) Oh, man. That loss for Middle Tennessee was ill-timed. I think they'll make it into the tournament, following the precedent set by Iona last year (this is a softer bubble and MTSU has a better resume). But they will be sweating it on Sunday.
4) Quality win by Indiana, and I'm putting them ahead of Gonzaga. Michigan is sitll on the two line, for now. If they lose to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tourney, that may be in jeopardy.
5) Seed list snakes, blah blah blah. You know the drill by now.

1: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2: Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Ohio State, New Mexico, Miami (FL), Florida
4: Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Marquette
5: Syracuse, Butler, Wisconsin, Saint Louis
6: Colorado State, VCU, UNLV, Pittsburgh
7: UCLA, Memphis, Illinois, Notre Dame
8: North Carolina State, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Minnesota
9: San Diego State, Creighton, Oregon, Colorado
10: Wichita State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Missouri
11: California, Villanova,  Saint Mary's, Belmont
12: (La Salle/Kentucky), (Middle Tennessee/Tennessee), Boise State, Temple
13: Lousiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin
14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso, South Dakota State
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Montana, Vermont, Long Beach State
16: (Iona/LIU-Brooklyn), (Norfolk State/Liberty), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes:
Villanova
Saint Mary's
Temple
Boise State

Last Four In:
La Salle
Middle Tennessee
Tennessee
Kentucky

First Four Out:
Baylor
Virginia
Mississippi 
Arkansas


Next Four Out:
Iowa
Alabama
Southern Miss
Maryland


Also Considered:
Massachusetts
Xavier
Louisiana Tech
Akron
Saint John's
Stanford
Air Force

Bracketology 3/10/13


News/Notes:
1) What a mess in the middle of the bracket! 7 teams in a row on my S-curve (NC State to Oklahoma) have lost since the last update. Unbelievable. 
2) The sweet smell of teams playing their way IN to the bracket! Tennessee, among others. Meanwhile, La Salle slides towards the cutline. 
3) I'm getting more and more confident in Louisville as my last #1 seed. If they win the Big East Tourney, I think they have it.
4) Minnesota's slide is getting remarkable. They're now 8-10 in conference.
5) Re-adjustments are coming early in the week (as well as daily bracket updates from here on out).
6) Remember the seed list snakes in an S-shape. 

1: Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville
2: Michigan State, Kansas, Georgetown, Michigan
3: Ohio State, New Mexico, Miami (FL), Florida
4: Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Marquette
5: Syracuse, VCU, Butler, Wisconsin
6: Colorado State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis
7: UCLA, Memphis, Illinois, Notre Dame
8: San Diego State, North Carolina State, Cincinnati, Minnesota
9: Oregon, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina
10: Iowa State, Wichita State, Creighton, Oklahoma
11: Middle Tennessee, California, Villanova,  Saint Mary's
12: (La Salle/Kentucky), (Temple/Tennessee), Boise State, Belmont
13: Lousiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin
14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso, South Dakota State
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/LIU-Brooklyn), (Norfolk State/Charleston Southern), Southern, Northeastern



Last Four Byes:
California
Villanova
Saint Mary's
Boise State

Last Four In:
La Salle
Tennessee

Kentucky

Temple

First Four Out:
Baylor

Mississippi 

Arkansas
Virginia

Next Four Out:

Iowa
Maryland
Alabama
Southern Miss

Also Considered:

Massachusetts

Xavier

Louisiana Tech
Akron



Saint John's

Stanford
Air Force