Tuesday, July 30, 2013

2013 Preseason College Football Projected Records

Well, here are the projected records I promised. One thing to keep in mind while looking at these is that the projected winner of each game is the team with the higher rating (once home/road has been accounted for). This means that, while a team may be projected at 12-0 (e.g. Cincinnati) they may be small favorites in many games, although favored to win every game (Cincy is a very small favorite over Louisvile and Houston, for example). Thus, their most likely finish is probably about 9-3. This is why so many teams have records of 10-2 and better. 

SEC

West
Alabama 12-0 (8-0) SEC Champion
Mississippi 10-2 (7-1)
LSU 8-4 (5-3)
Texas A&M 9-3 (5-3)
Arkansas 5-7 (2-6)
Auburn 5-7 (1-7)
Mississippi State 4-8 (1-7)

East
Georgia 12-0 (8-0) SEC Championship Game Loser
South Carolina 11-1 (7-1)
Florida 6-6 (4-4)
Missouri 6-6 (3-5)
Tennessee 6-6 (3-5)
Vanderbilt 6-6 (2-6)
Kentucky 3-9 (0-8)

Big 10

Leaders
Ohio State 11-1 (7-1) Big 10 Champion
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Indiana 8-4 (4-4)
Penn State 8-4 (4-4)
Purdue 2-10 (1-7)
Illinois 2-10 (0-8)

Legends
Nebraska 12-0 (8-0) Big 10 Championship Game Loser
Northwestern 10-2 (6-2)
Michigan State 10-2 (6-2)
Michigan 7-5 (3-5)
Minnesota 5-7 (1-7)
Iowa 3-9 (1-7)

Big 12
Texas 12-0 (9-0)
Oklahoma State 11-1 (7-1)
Kansas State 9-3 (6-3)
Oklahoma 8-4 (6-3)
TCU 9-3 (6-3)
Baylor 7-5 (4-5)
West Virginia 5-7 (3-6)
Texas Tech 5-7 (2-7)
Iowa State 3-9 (1-8)
Kansas 2-10 (0-9)

ACC

Atlantic
Clemson 10-2 (8-0) ACC Championship Game Loser
Florida State 11-1 (7-1)
Wake Forest 6-6 (3-5)
North Carolina State 7-5 (3-5)
Maryland 6-6 (3-5)
Syracuse 5-7 (3-5)
Boston College 5-7 (2-6)

Coastal
Miami (FL) 11-1 (7-1) ACC Champion
Georgia Tech 8-4 (6-2)
Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-2)
North Carolina 7-5 (4-4)
Duke 6-6 (2-6)
Pittsburgh 3-9 (1-7)
Virginia 3-9 (1-7)

Pac-12

North
Oregon State 10-2 (7-2) Pac-12 Champion
Stanford 10-2 (7-2)
Oregon 10-2 (7-2)
Washington 9-3 (6-3)
Washington State 4-8 (2-7)
California 1-11 (0-9)

South
Arizona State 8-4 (7-2) Pac-12 Championship Game Loser
USC 9-3 (7-2)
Arizona 9-3 (6-3)
UCLA 6-6 (4-5)
Utah 3-9 (1-8)
Colorado 3-9 (1-8)

American Athletic
Cincinnati 12-0 (8-0)
Louisville 11-1 (7-1)
Central Florida 9-3 (7-1)
Rutgers 7-5 (4-4)
Houston 6-6 (4-4)
Connecticut 6-6 (3-5)
Memphis 4-8 (2-6)
USF 4-8 (2-6)
SMU 3-9 (2-6)
Temple 4-8 (1-7)

Mountain West

West
San Jose State 9-3 (7-1) Mountain West Championship Game Loser
Fresno State 10-2 (6-2)
San Diego State 7-5 (5-3)
Nevada 4-8 (3-5)
Hawaii 4-8 (3-5)
UNLV 4-8 (2-6)

Mountain
Boise State 8-4 (6-2) Mountain West Champion
Utah State 4-8 (3-5)
Colorado State 5-8 (3-5) 
Air Force 5-7 (3-5) 
Wyoming 5-7 (3-5)
New Mexico 5-7 (3-5) 

Conference USA

East
East Carolina 8-4 (7-1) Conference USA Championship Game Loser
Middle Tennessee 8-4 (6-2)
Marshall 8-4 (6-2)
Southern Mississippi 4-8 (3-5)
UAB 3-9 (2-6)
Florida Atlantic 3-9 (2-6)
FIU 3-9 (2-6)

West
Rice 11-1 (8-0) Conference USA Champion
Tulsa 8-4 (6-2)
North Texas 7-5 (5-3)
UTEP 4-8 (3-5)
UTSA 3-9 (3-5)
Louisiana Tech 3-9 (2-6)
Tulane 3-9 (1-7)

Independents
Notre Dame 10-2
BYU 9-3
Old Dominion 8-4
Navy 6-6
Army 4-8
New Mexico State 3-9
Idaho 0-12

MAC

West
Northern Illinois 12-0 (8-0) MAC Champion
Western Michigan 7-5 (6-2)
Ball State 8-4 (6-2)
Toledo 7-5 (5-3)
Central Michigan 3-9 (2-6)
Eastern Michigan 1-11 (0-8)

East
Bowling Green 10-2 (8-0) MAC Championship Game Loser
Ohio 9-3 (6-2)
Buffalo 6-6 (4-4)
Kent State 4-8 (3-5)
Miami (OH) 3-9 (3-5)
Massachusetts 2-10 (1-7)
Akron 1-11 (0-8)

Sun Belt
Louisiana 10-2 (7-0)
Louisiana Monroe 8-4 (6-1)
Western Kentucky 7-5 (5-2)
Arkansas State 6-6 (4-3)
Troy 5-7 (3-4)
Texas State 5-7 (2-5)
South Alabama 3-9 (1-6)
Georgia State 3-9 (0-7)

Well, that's all for now. My next post is going to be my projected bowl games for the season, using the records in this post.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

2013 Preseason College Football Power Ratings

Well guys, as I promised, I'm putting up my power ratings for each college football team. These were made the same way they were last year, with the primary component being the amount of wins last year the team had, and the other components being things that can cause them to become better or worse (returning starters, whether their schedule is tougher or easier, etc.) First, I'll give you the top 25, and then I'll give every team's rating by conference.
Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma State
4. Georgia
5. Wisconsin
6. Oregon
7. Michigan State
8. Texas A&M
9. Florida State
10. Miami (FL)
11. Mississippi
12. South Carolina
13. TCU
14. Ohio State
15. Stanford
16. Oregon State
17. Washington
18. Nebraska
19. LSU
20. Notre Dame
21. Georgia Tech
22. Clemson
23. Oklahoma
24. USC
25. Northwestern

SEC
1. Alabama 130.09
2. Georgia 108.7
3. Texas A&M 101.27
4. Mississippi 95.56
5. South Carolina 94.86
6. LSU 89.99
7. Florida 74.05
8. Missouri 64.81
9. Mississippi State 63.83
10. Auburn 60.07
11. Vanderbilt 56.94
12. Tennessee 55.09
13. Arkansas 50.37
14. Kentucky 36.81

Big 10
1. Wisconsin 107.68
2. Michigan State 101.99
3. Ohio State 93.71
4. Nebraska 91.73
5. Northwestern 81.38
6. Michigan 72.39
7. Penn State 53.61
8. Indiana 53.21
9. Iowa 45.85
10. Minnesota 38.51
11. Illinois 30.32
12. Purdue 25.88

Big 12
1. Texas 126.62
2. Oklahoma State 109.99
3. TCU 93.78
4. Oklahoma 83.31
5. Kansas State 70.5
6. Baylor 64.42
7. Texas Tech 51.32
8. West Virginia 42.19
9. Iowa State 37.24
10. Kansas 25.6

ACC
1. Florida State 96.91
2. Miami (FL) 96.31
3. Georgia Tech 85.85
4. Clemson 85.71
5. Virginia Tech 76.7
6. North Carolina 56.1
7. Duke 52.84
8. Syracuse 48.86
9. Virginia 48.58
10. Wake Forest 46.38
11. Maryland 43.92
12. Boston College 42.94
13. North Carolina State 40.75
14. Pittsburgh 34.94

Pac-12
1. Oregon 105.45
2. Stanford 93.53
3. Oregon State 92.28
4. Washington 91.99
5. USC 82.98
6. Arizona 77.49
7. Arizona State 76.7
8. UCLA 66.78
9. Washington State 43
10. Utah 39.89
11. Colorado 35.03
12. California 24.79

American Athletic
1. Louisville 69.18
2. Cincinnati 66.57
3. Central Florida 51.6
4. Rutgers 48.08
5. Houston 42.9
6. Connecticut 39.84
7. SMU 33.97
8. Temple 29.48
9. USF 28.36
10. Memphis 25.66

Mountain West
1. Boise State 64.76
2. Fresno State 57.59
3. San Jose State 49.83
4. San Diego State 49.08
5. Colorado State 32.54
6. Hawaii 31.85
7. Air Force 30.38
8. UNLV 29.04
9. Utah State 26.86
10. Wyoming 24.41
11. New Mexico 21.44
12. Nevada 20.41

Conference USA
1. Rice 59.84
2. East Carolina 54.63
3. Marshall 50.13
4. Tulsa 41.58
5. Middle Tennessee 41.29
6. North Texas 33.78
7. UTSA 25.78
8. Southern Miss 24.15
9. UAB 23.59
10. Tulane 23.35
11. UTEP 19.88
12. Louisiana Tech 18.62
13. FIU 17.71
14. Florida Atlantic 15.82

Independents
1. Notre Dame 89.15
2. BYU 70.02
3. Navy 32.36
4. Army 26.3
5. Old Dominion 24.09
6. New Mexico State 13.13
7. Idaho 8.25

MAC
1. Northern Illinois 72.26
2. Bowling Green 60.07
3. Toledo 45.97
4. Ball State 41.7
5. Ohio 40.03
6. Buffalo 34.33
7. Western Michigan 29.18
8. Kent State 25.31
9. Miami (OH) 21.16
10. Central Michigan 15.68
11. Eastern Michigan 13.66
12. Akron 11.48
13. Massachusetts 10.63

Sun Belt
1. Louisiana 52.03
2. Louisiana Monroe 45.08
3. Arkansas State 29.77
4. Western Kentucky 29.44
5. Troy 28.01
6. South Alabama 19.84
7. Texas State 17.31
8. Georgia State 5.3

That's all for now. Coming later this week are my projected records for each team, as well as my projected bowl game matchups and what the college football playoff would look like in this "simulated season".

Thursday, July 4, 2013

MLB Picks: July

MLB 2013: -$115.50 (-1.155 units)


7/6
Orioles @ Yankees
Tillman is pitching considerably better than Pettitte, and even though this game is in the Bronx, that doesn't account for the O's getting this much juice.
Orioles +114 (1 unit) -$100

Mets @ Brewers
These two teams are rather even as far as hitting goes, and Marcum has been far better than his 1-9 record indicates. Gallarado, meanwhile has been so hot-and-cold that it's worth betting against him when he's this big of a favorite.
Mets +125 (1 unit) -$100

7/4
Yankees @ Twins
I hate the Yankees just as much as the next guy, but Phelps has been O.K. so far this year with a few awful starts mixed in. I'll take the better team getting money against an unproven pitcher.
Yankees +108 (1 unit) +$108