Thursday, December 31, 2015

Bracketology 12/31/15

It's time for my annual New Year's Eve tradition, my first bracket of the year! Bracketology this time of year is an inexact science, the RPI hasn't really settled yet as seen through things such as 3-loss Texas A&M Corpus Christi being in the top 50. Updates through January will be once or twice a week, once we get into February and I have more data points to rely on they'll be near-daily. This bracket is through games of December 30th. The seed lists are simply read left to right, there's no snaking involved.

1: Michigan State, Xavier, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa State, Villanova
3: Kentucky, Purdue, Dayton, Miami (FL)
4: Texas A&M, Providence, Duke, Texas Tech
5: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Florida, Arizona
6: Utah, Butler, Texas, Maryland
7: Iowa, George Washington, Louisville, West Virginia
8: Colorado, USC, South Carolina, Georgia
9: Seton Hall, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, UCLA
10: Baylor, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Connecticut
11: Gonzaga, Cincinnati, (Davidson/Michigan), (Alabama/Arizona State)
12: Valparaiso, Akron, Arkansas-LR, Monmouth
13: South Dakota State, Stony Brook, Hawaii, San Diego State
14: William & Mary, Chattanooga, Yale, Old Dominion
15: Belmont, High Point, Weber State, Army
16: Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, (North Florida/Norfolk State), (Jackson State/Wagner)

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
Last Four In: Davidson, Alabama, Arizona State, Michigan
First Four Out: California, St. Mary's, Kansas State, Boise State
Next Four Out: Northwestern, Richmond, Florida State, UNLV
Also Considered: Indiana, Monmouth, Syracuse, Arkansas-LR, Valparaiso

Thursday, September 10, 2015

College Football Picks: Week 2, 2015

College Football Picks 2015: 9-7 +6.3 units
College Football Picks Week 2, 2015: 5-4, +4.6 units

East Carolina @ Florida

Pick: East Carolina +21 (3 units) +3 units

Eastern Michigan @ Wyoming

Pick: Eastern Michigan +13.5 (2 units) +2 units

Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky

Pick: Western Kentucky +2.5 (2 units) +2 units

Massachusetts @ Colorado

Pick: Massachusetts +13 (1 unit) -1.1 units

Rice @ Texas

Pick: Rice +14 (1 unit) Push +- 0 units

Bowling Green @ Maryland

Pick: Bowling Green +7.5 (1 unit) +1 unit

Florida International @ Indiana

Pick: Florida International +7.5 (1 unit) -1.1 units

Appalachian State @ Clemson

Pick: Appalachian State +19 (1 unit) -1.1 units

Washington State @ Rutgers

Pick: Rutgers -3 (1 unit) -1.1 units

Minnesota @ Colorado State

Pick: Minnesota +5.5 (1 unit) +1 unit

NFL Picks Week 1, 2015

Here are my NFL Picks against the spread for week 1! Unlike my college football picks, there's no hard methodology here. It's just my opinion.

Pittsburgh @ New England

Pick: Pittsburgh +7.5 (1 unit) +1 unit

Kansas City @ Houston

Pick: Houston -1 (2 units)

Indianapolis @ Buffalo

Pick: Buffalo +2.5 (2 units)

Carolina @ Jacksonville

Pick: Jacksonville +3 (3 units)

Seattle @ St. Louis

Pick: St. Louis +3.5 (3 units)

New Orleans @ Arizona

Pick: Arizona -2.5 (1 unit)

Detroit @ San Diego

Pick: San Diego -3 (3 units)

Cincinnati @ Oakland

Pick: Oakland +3.5 (2 units)

New York Giants @ Dallas

Pick: New York Giants +5.5 (2 units)

Philadelphia @ Atlanta

Pick: Atlanta +3 (4 units)

Thursday, September 3, 2015

College Football Picks: Week 1, 2015

Here are my selections for week 1 of the college football season. These picks are entirely based off of my power ratings formula, no human input is going into this.

College Football Picks 2015: 4-3 +1.7 units

Penn State @ Temple

Pick: Temple +7 (2 units) +2 units

Louisville @ Auburn

Pick: Louisville +10.5 (1 unit) +1 unit

Arizona State @ Texas A&M

Pick: Arizona State +3.5 (1 unit) -1.1 unit

Georgia Southern @ West Virginia

Pick: Georgia Southern +19.5 (1 unit) -1.1 unit

Western Kentucky @ Vanderbilt

Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5 (1 unit) +1 unit

Purdue @ Marshall

Pick: Marshall -7.5 (1 unit) +1 unit

Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa

Pick: Tulsa -6.5 (1 unit) -1.1 unit

2015 College Football Projected Records

With FBS season beginning today, I figured it might be a good ideas to just dump off my projected records for every team this season. Keep in mind that a team's record is how many games they're favored in, so these numbers may differ significantly from the expected records if a team is a small underdog or favorite in many games.

SEC West
Alabama 11-1 (7-1)
Mississippi 11-1 (7-1)
LSU 9-3 (5-3)
Mississippi State 8-4 (4-4)
Arkansas 7-5 (3-5)
Texas A&M 6-6 (3-5)
Auburn 4-8 (0-8)

SEC East
Georgia 11-1 (8-0)
Missouri 11-1 (7-1)
Tennessee 8-4 (5-3)
South Carolina 7-5 (3-5)
Vanderbilt 6-6 (2-6)
Kentucky 6-6 (2-6)
Florida 2-10 (0-8)

Big Ten East
Ohio State 12-0 (8-0)
Michigan State 11-1 (7-1)
Penn State 8-4 (5-3)
Michigan 7-5 (4-4)
Rutgers 6-6 (2-6)
Maryland 3-9 (1-7)
Indiana 3-9 (0-8)

Big Ten West
Wisconsin 10-2 (7-1)
Minnesota 9-3 (6-2)
Nebraska 10-2 (6-2)
Northwestern 6-6 (4-4)
Iowa 8-4 (4-4)
Purdue 3-9 (2-6)
Illinois 3-9 (0-8)

Pac-12 South
Arizona State 10-2 (7-2)
USC 8-4 (6-3)
Arizona 9-3 (6-3)
Utah 8-4 (5-4)
UCLA 8-4 (5-4)
Colorado 6-7 (2-7)

Pac-12 North
Stanford 12-0 (9-0)
Oregon 10-2 (8-1)
California 5-7 (3-6)
Washington 3-9 (2-7)
Washington State 3-9 (1-8)
Oregon State 2-10 (0-9)

Big 12
TCU 12-0 (9-0)
Baylor 11-1 (8-1)
Oklahoma 10-2 (7-2)
West Virginia 8-4 (5-4)
Texas Tech 6-6 (4-5)
Oklahoma State 7-5 (4-5)
Kansas State 7-5 (4-5)
Texas 5-7 (3-6)
Iowa State 2-10 (1-8)
Kansas 1-11 (0-9)

ACC Atlantic
Clemson 9-3 (7-1)
Florida State 10-2 (6-2)
Louisville 7-5 (5-3)
North Carolina State 7-5 (3-5)
Boston College 4-8 (2-6)
Syracuse 4-8 (1-7)
Wake Forest 2-10 (0-8)
ACC Coastal
Georgia Tech 11-1 (8-0)
Virginia Tech 10-2 (7-1)
Duke 9-3 (5-3)
North Carolina 8-4 (5-3)
Pittsburgh 7-5 (5-3)
Miami (FL) 3-9 (1-7)
Virginia 2-10 (1-7)

Independents
Notre Dame 11-1
BYU 6-6
Army 3-9

AAC East
East Carolina 8-4 (6-2)
Cincinnati 9-3 (6-2)
Temple 9-3 (6-2)
Central Florida 8-4 (6-2)
USF 2-10 (1-7)
Connecticut 2-10 (0-8)

AAC West
Memphis 9-3 (7-1)
Navy 9-3 (6-2)
Houston 7-5 (5-3)
Tulane 5-7 (3-5)
SMU 4-8 (2-6)
Tulsa 2-10 (0-8)

MW Mountain
Utah State 11-1 (8-0)
Boise State 11-1 (7-1)
Colorado State 7-5 (5-3)
Air Force 7-5 (5-3)
New Mexico 5-7 (2-6)
Wyoming 3-9 (1-7)

MW West
San Diego State 9-3 (7-1)
Nevada 6-6 (5-3)
Hawaii 5-8 (3-5)
San Jose State 4-8 (3-5)
Fresno State 3-9 (2-6)
UNLV 1-11 (0-8)

MAC West
Northern Illinois 11-1 (8-0)
Western Michigan 6-6 (5-3)
Ball State 7-5 (5-3)
Toledo 7-5 (4-4)
Central Michigan 3-9 (2-6)
Eastern Michigan 0-12 (0-8)

MAC East
Bowling Green 9-3 (6-2)
Ohio 8-4 (6-2)
Massachusetts 7-5 (6-2)
Akron 6-6 (5-3)
Kent State 4-8 (3-5)
Buffalo 4-8 (1-7)
Miami (OH) 2-10 (1-7)

CUSA East
Marshall 12-0 (8-0)
Western Kentucky 8-4 (6-2)
Old Dominion 7-5 (5-3)
Middle Tennessee 6-6 (5-3)
Florida International 5-7 (4-4)
Charlotte 2-10 (1-7)
Florida Atlantic 0-12 (0-8)

CUSA West
Rice 10-2 (8-0)
Louisiana Tech 8-4 (6-2)
Southern Mississippi 5-7 (4-4)
North Texas 3-9 (2-6)
UTEP 3-9 (2-6)
UTSA 1-11 (1-7)

Sun Belt
Appalachian State 11-1 (8-0)
Georgia Southern 9-3 (7-1)
Arkansas State 8-4 (7-1)
Louisiana 8-4 (6-2)
Texas State 7-5 (5-3)
New Mexico State 4-8 (3-5)
Troy 4-8 (3-5)
Georgia State 4-8 (2-6)
Louisiana-Monroe 3-10 (2-6)
South Alabama 2-10 (1-7)
Idaho 1-11 (0-8)

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Bracketology 3/15/15 Evening

1) This bracket is final. I just finished my bracket which can be found here.

2) If BYU is in, I think that they have the spot currently belonging to Ole Miss, possibly Boise State. But we will see.

3) Be sure to follow us on Twitter.

1: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin

2: Virginia, Arizona, GonzagaKansas

3: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor

4: Louisville, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Northern Iowa

5: North Carolina, SMU, Wichita State, Georgetown

6: Arkansas, Michigan State, Utah, Providence

7: VCU, Butler, Oregon, San Diego State

8: Iowa, Xavier, St. John's, Ohio State

9: Davidson, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Cincinnati

10: Oklahoma State, Purdue, Dayton, Georgia

11: Temple, Texas, (Indiana/LSU), (Boise State/Ole Miss)

12: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Buffalo, Wofford

13: Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia StateEastern Washington

14: UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, New Mexico State

15: Belmont, Albany, UAB, Texas Southern

16: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, (North Florida/Manhattan), (Robert Morris/Hampton)

Bubble In: Temple, Texas, Indiana, LSU, Boise State, Ole Miss

Bubble Out: BYU, UCLA, Miami (FL), Stanford, Tulsa

Bracketology 3/15/15 Morning

1) Well, we're finally at Selection Sunday. The bubble, in my mind, comes down to 3 teams for 2 spots (which will become only 1 spot if UConn wins). Right now I am leaning towards having BYU out and Boise State and Ole Miss in. All of this would've been much simpler if Wyoming had lost to San Diego State.

2) Here's how the games today could effect the seed list, aside from any changes I might make unrelated to today's games:

Georgia State/Georgia Southern: If Georgia State wins nothing changes. If Georgia Southern wins they go between Albany and UAB. Belmont and UC Irvine bump up a line.

VCU/Dayton: VCU moves up a spot but does not jump to a 6 with a win. With a loss they drop down to the top 8 seed and Iowa gets a 7. Dayton moves just behind Colorado State with a win, but drops 1 spot with a loss.

Arkansas/Kentucky: Nothing changes with a Kentucky win. If Arkansas wins, they move up 4 spots on the seed list and Georgetown moves down to a 6.

Michigan State/Wisconsin: If Wisconsin wins they pass Virginia for the last one seed, and Michigan State moves down to just above Utah. If Michigan State wins, they move up 3 spots on the S-curve and Georgetown (or Wichita State, if Arkansas also wins) moves down. Also, if the Spartans win the Badgers get passed by Arizona.

Connecticut/SMU: If SMU wins nothing changes. If UConn wins then SMU moves below Georgetown (and is at risk of moving to a 6 depending on Big Ten/SEC results). Also, UConn enters the bracket as the last 11 seed, bumping the First Four games up a spot and bumping Ole Miss out.

3) I am going to start assembling my bracket right now. I will probably put out another one once all the dust settles on today's games.

4) I will, of course, release another bracket marked "final" this evening after the conclusion of the AAC and Big Ten conference championship games.

1: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia

2: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

3: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor

4: Louisville, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Northern Iowa

5: North Carolina, SMU, Wichita State, Georgetown

6: Michigan State, Arkansas, Utah, Providence

7: Butler, VCU, Oregon, San Diego State

8: Iowa, Xavier, St. John's, Ohio State

9: Davidson, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Cincinnati

10: Oklahoma State, Dayton, Purdue, Georgia

11: Temple, Texas, (Indiana/LSU), (Boise State/Ole Miss)

12: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Buffalo, Wofford

13: Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington

14: UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, New Mexico State

15: Belmont, Albany, UAB, Texas Southern

16: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, (North Florida/Manhattan), (Robert Morris/Hampton)

Bubble In: Temple, Texas, Indiana, LSU, Boise State, Ole Miss

Bubble Out: BYU, UCLA, Miami (FL), Stanford, Tulsa


Saturday, March 14, 2015

Bracketology 3/14/15

1) This seed list reflects a total resume re-evaluation.

2) There were a lot of tough decisions to be made here, most notably the number 1 seeds. I originally had Virginia in front of Villanova and Duke but reconsidered because of Duke's 7 wins against the RPI top 25.

3) On the bubble, I would say that any team from Oklahoma State on up is a lock. LSU, Purdue and Boise State are all in the "should be in" category and Purdue will stay there with a loss today. However, should the Boilermakers win they will move up to lock territory. Temple will also move up to lock territory if they beat SMU but will fall to 3rd or 4th team in with a loss.

4) If Tulsa loses to Connecticut today I will feel pretty good about who is in and who is out for the at-larges. Everyone I've seen has the same at-large teams in the field. But if there are bid thieves, that may change. Rhode Island, Auburn, Wyoming and Connecticut are all possible bid thieves and I guess one might argue Tulsa could be considered one as well.

5) I'm still keeping my eye out for a Buffalo, Murray State or Iona at-large. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's not 100% out of the question.

6) Bracket is up here.

7) Remember to follow us on Twitter.

1: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia

2: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

3: Maryland, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Oklahoma

4: Baylor, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Louisville

5: West Virginia, Wichita State, SMU, Georgetown

6: Utah, Butler, Providence, Arkansas

7: Michigan State, San Diego State, Ohio State, Oregon

8: St. John's, VCU, Iowa, Xavier

9: Davidson, Dayton, North Carolina State, Cincinnati

10: Georgia, Colorado State, Oklahoma State, LSU

11: Purdue, Boise State, Temple, (BYU/Ole Miss)

12: (Texas/Indiana), Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford

13: Valparaiso, Yale, Georgia State, Eastern Washington

14: Northeastern, North Dakota State,  Belmont, UC Irvine

15:Albany, New Mexico State, Lafayette, Coastal Carolina

16: Texas Southern, Middle Tennessee, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Delaware State

Bubble In: Temple, BYU, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana

Bubble Out: Tulsa, UCLA, Miami (FL)

Friday, March 13, 2015

Bracketology 3/13/15

1) Wow, bubbles popping all over the place. This is great news for teams like Indiana, UCLA and Tulsa. I'll have a bracket with my update tomorrow, I'm busy right now.

2) Remember that all seed lists are read left to right

3) Remember to follow us @ivarbrackets on Twitter.

1: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

2: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

3: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Maryland, Baylor

4: North Carolina, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Louisville

5: Utah, Wichita State, Butler, West Virginia

6: Providence, SMU, Georgetown, Arkansas

7: San Diego State, Michigan State,  VCU, Ohio State

8: Oregon, St. John's, Colorado State, Iowa

9: Dayton, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Xavier

10: LSU, North Carolina State, Davidson, Cincinnati

11: Purdue, BYU, Boise State, Indiana/Mississippi

12: Texas/Temple, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford

13: Louisiana Tech, ValparaisoUC Davis, Yale

14: Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State

15: Belmont, Albany, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State

16: LafayetteCoastal Carolina, (Texas Southern/North Florida)), (Manhattan/Robert Morris)

Bubble In: Purdue, BYU, Boise State, Indiana, Mississippi, Temple, Texas

Bubble Out: UCLA, Tulsa, Miami (FL), Richmond, Texas A&M

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Bracketology 3/12/15

1) I will have a bracket with all my updates starting tomorrow. There's just not been much to change these last couple of days.

2) Remember that all seed lists are read left to right

3) Remember to follow us @ivarbrackets on Twitter.

1: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

2: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

3: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Maryland, Notre Dame

4: Baylor, Louisville, North Carolina, Northern Iowa

5: Butler, West Virginia, Utah, Wichita State

6: SMU, Providence, Georgetown, Arkansas

7: San Diego State, Michigan State, St. John's, VCU

8: Iowa, Oregon, Ohio State, Colorado State

9: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Georgia, North Carolina State

10: LSU, Davidson, Cincinnati, Xavier

11: Purdue, Mississippi, BYU, Boise State/Indiana

12: Texas/Temple, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford

13: Louisiana Tech, ValparaisoUC Davis, Yale

14: Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State

15: Belmont, Albany, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State

16: Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, (Texas Southern/North Florida)), (Manhattan/Robert Morris)

Last Four Byes: Xavier, Purdue, Mississippi, BYU

Last Four In: Boise State, Indiana, Texas, Temple

First Four Out: Texas A&M, UCLA, Tulsa, Illinois

Next Four Out: Miami (FL), Stanford, Old Dominion, Richmond

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Bracketology 3/10/15

1) It says something about the RPI that Iona's RPI was 120 places higher than Manhattan's and they were only a 4.5 point favorite. But it's what the committee uses, so we just have to live with it.

2) Remember that all seed lists are read left to right

3) Remember to follow us @ivarbrackets on Twitter.

1: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

2: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

3: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Maryland, Notre Dame

4: Baylor, Louisville, North Carolina, Northern Iowa

5: Butler, West Virginia, Utah, Wichita State

6: SMU, Providence, Georgetown, Arkansas

7: San Diego State, Michigan State, St. John's, VCU

8: Iowa, Oregon, Ohio State, Colorado State

9: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Georgia, North Carolina State

10: LSU, Davidson, Cincinnati, Xavier

11: Purdue, BYU, Mississippi, Boise State/Indiana

12: Texas/Temple, Buffalo, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin

13: Louisiana Tech, Valparaiso, Yale, UC Davis

14: Georgia State, South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern

15: Belmont, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Albany

16: Lafayette, Texas Southern, (Coastal Carolina/St. Francis (NY)), (North Florida/Manhattan)

Last Four Byes: Xavier, Purdue, BYU, Mississippi

Last Four In: Boise State, Indiana, Texas, Temple

First Four Out: Texas A&M, UCLA, Tulsa, Illinois

Next Four Out: Stanford, Old Dominion, Richmond, Miami (FL)