Friday, January 29, 2016

Bracketology 1/29/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out.
2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid.
4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix.
5) Apologies for the lack of a Wednesday update, I had exams this week so I couldn't get around to it.
6) I did get a chance to run my bracketology model for the first time, and it received a Paymon score of 318, below the Bracket Matrix average. I'll have to fine tune it over the next couple of weeks.


1: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Xavier, Kansas
2: Villanova, Iowa, Oregon, Iowa State
3: Miami (FL), Michigan State, Virginia, Maryland
4: Texas A&M, Utah, West Virginia, Kentucky
5: Providence, Dayton, USC, Purdue
6: South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Louisville
7: Duke, Baylor, Pittsburgh, California
8: Michigan, Indiana, Colorado, Florida
9: St. Mary's, Wichita Sate, Notre Dame, St. Joseph's
10: Butler, Oregon State, Connecticut, Gonzaga
11: Cincinnati, VCU, (Seton Hall/Clemson), (Washington/Texas Tech)
12: Valparaiso, Monmouth, Chattanooga, South Dakota State
13: UC Irvine, San Diego State, Arkansas-LR, Stony Brook
14: Belmont, Kent State, Yale, UNC-Wilmington
15: North Florida, UAB, Texas A&M CC, New Mexico State
16: Montana, Winthrop, (Bucknell/Hampton), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)


First Four Out: Syracuse, Valparaiso, Stanford, UCLA


Next Four Out: George Washington, Vanderbilt, Boise State, Georgetown


Also Considered: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, Alabama, Florida State, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, LSU, Evansville, Marquette, Auburn, Davidson, Creighton, Ohio State




Monday, January 25, 2016

Bracketology 1/25/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out.
2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid.
4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix.
5) Great weekend of college hoops, although not as much movement at the top of the bracket as the last couple weeks has given us. Only real movement up there is that Iowa is now on my 1 line.
6) I spent a lot of time this weekend working on some long-range stuff- I now have the resumes of every team from 2012-2015 who was in tournament contention in a spreadsheet, and am working on building a model to predict what happens on Selection Sunday. I'll do a test run of the model later this week, in all likelihood.


1: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa
2: Xavier, Villanova, Texas A&M, Iowa State
3: Oregon, Michigan State, Miami (FL), Virginia
4: Providence, West Virginia, Kentucky, Utah
5: Dayton, Maryland, Arizona, USC
6: Purdue, Duke, South Carolina, Pittsburgh
7: Texas, Louisville, California, Baylor
8: Indiana, Florida, Michigan, Notre Dame
9: Oregon State, St. Mary's, Wichita Sate, Colorado
10: St. Joseph's, Butler, Connecticut, UCLA
11: (George Washington/Stanford), (Texas Tech/Gonzaga), Valparaiso, Monmouth
12: South Dakota State, Chattanooga, VCU, Arkansas-LR
13: Tulsa, San Diego State, Stony Brook, Northern Illinois
14: Belmont, James Madison, Hawaii, Yale
15: UAB, North Florida, UNC-Asheville, Montana
16: New Mexico State, Bucknell, (Hampton/Houston Baptist), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Valparaiso, Washington

Next Four Out: Clemson, VCU, Boise State, Syracuse

Also Considered: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, Alabama, Florida State, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Auburn, Georgia Tech, St. Bonaventure, Evansville, Marquette, LSU, Creighton, Mississippi, Davidson, Tulsa, UT-Arlington, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Ohio State

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bracketology 1/22/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out.
2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid.
4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix.
5) Not as many upsets at the top of the bracket in the past two days, but interesting things going on near the bubble. For the first time ever, I have a play-in game on the 10 line. Part of the reason is my new system of awarding auto-bids to the conference leader (leading to VCU and Central Florida being in the field) and part is the historic weakness of the mid-tier conferences this year.
6) I always cheer for low-major at-large bids, but unfortunately the odds of a Monmouth at-large seem considerably slimmer after their loss to Manhattan yesterday. Using the previous MAAC at-large of Iona 2012 as a guide, I'd think Monmouth can only afford 2 more losses, including the conference tournament.

1: Oklahoma, Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas
2: Xavier, Iowa, Texas A&M, Iowa State
3: Oregon, Miami (FL), Virginia, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Michigan State, West Virginia, Dayton
5: Arizona, South Carolina, Providence, Utah
6: USC, Texas, Purdue, Baylor
7: Duke, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Indiana
8: Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan, California
9: St. Mary's, Butler, Wichita State, Colorado
10: Texas Tech, St. Joseph's, UCLA, (Oregon State/Seton Hall)
11: (Connecticut/George Washington), Valparaiso, Washington, UC-Irvine
12: VCU, Chattanooga, IPFW, San Diego State
13: Princeton, Arkansas-LR, Stony Brook, Belmont
14: Northern Illinois, James Madison, UAB, North Florida
15: Weber State, Cal State Bakersfield, Navy, High Point
16: Hampton, Central Florida, (Saint Peter's/Wagner), (Texas Southern/Houston Baptist)

First Four Out: Stanford, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Alabama

Next Four Out: Syracuse, Florida State, Clemson, Boise State

Also Considered: Monmouth, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Kansas State, VCU, Mississippi, Evansville, Arkansas-LR, Auburn, Georgia Tech, St. Bonaventure, UT-Arlington, Marquette, Arizona State, Davidson, Tulsa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, LSU, Northwestern, Creighton, BYU

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Bracketology 1/20/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out.
2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid.
4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix.
5) Lots of jockeying for position at the top, as 3 of my 4 #1 seeds on Monday have lost in the past two nights. I could see an argument for either Xavier or Iowa on the top line as well. Texas A&M finishes the season with an incredibly easy schedule, their last Kenpom tier A opponent is @LSU on February 13th. If they only pick up a loss or two between now and then, look for them on the 1 line in March.

1: Oklahoma, Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas
2: Xavier, Iowa, Texas A&M, Michigan State
3: Iowa State, Miami (FL), West Virginia, Virginia
4: Maryland, Oregon, Kentucky, Dayton
5: USC, South Carolina, Providence, Arizona
6: Utah, Duke, Purdue, Baylor
7:Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Louisville, Indiana
8: Texas, Florida, Colorado, Notre Dame
9: Michigan, California, Butler, Oregon State
10: Wichita State, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, St. Mary's
11: Valparaiso, (Stanford/George Washington), (UCLA/Gonzaga), Monmouth
12: Chattanooga, IPFW, San Diego State, VCU
13: Princeton, Stony Brook, Arkansas-LR, Hawaii
14: James Madison, Northern Illinois, UAB, Memphis
15: Montana, UNC-Asheville, North Florida, CSU Bakersfield
16: Navy, Tennessee State, (Hampton/Texas Southern), (Houston Baptist/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Washington, Clemson, Monmouth

Next Four Out: Connecticut, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Arkansas-LR

Bids by Conference:

Pac-12: 9/12
Big 12: 7/10
ACC: 7/14
Big Ten: 6/14
Big East: 5/8
SEC: 4/14
Atlantic 10: 4/14
West Coast: 2/10

Monday, January 18, 2016

Bracketology 1/18/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid.
3) I'm changing how I award auto-bids before the conference tournament. Instead of choosing the KenPom leader from each conference, I'll follow Lunardi's lead and go with the conference leader, with ties broken by RPI.
4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix. This leads to some funky teams being in the bracket (such as VCU and Memphis) but it becomes irrelevant by Selection Sunday.
5) Only 7 conferences have at-large bids in this bracket, possibly the lowest number I've ever had in one of my brackets. I'm interested to see how much the Pac-12 cannibalizes itself and whether they can get a majority of their teams into the tournament.


1: Oklahoma, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas
2: North Carolina, Iowa, Texas A&M, Michigan State
3: Miami (FL), West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland
4: Iowa State, Oregon, Duke, Kentucky
5: USC, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Arizona
6: Utah, South Carolina, Purdue, Providence
7: Baylor, Texas Tech, Louisville, Texas
8: Florida, Colorado, Butler, Indiana
9: Notre Dame, Michigan, California, Oregon State
10: Wichita State, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, St. Mary's
11: Valparaiso, (Stanford/George Washington), (UCLA/Alabama), Monmouth
12: Chattanooga, IPFW, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State
13: VCU, Stony Brook, Princeton, Hawaii
14: James Madison, UAB, Northern Illinois, Memphis
15: Montana, North Florida, UNC-Asheville, CSU Bakersfield
16: Navy, Tennessee State, (Hampton/Texas Southern), (Mount Saint Mary's/Houston Baptist)


First Four Out: Gonzaga, Washington, Clemson, Monmouth


Next Four Out: Connecticut, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Arkansas-LR


Also Considered: Mississippi, Boise State, Vanderbilt, VCU, Marquette, Florida State, Davidson, St. Bonaventure, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, UT-Arlington, Ohio State, Tulsa, Auburn, Wisconsin, LSU, Wake Forest, Northwestern, Creighton, BYU


Bids by Conference:


Pac-12: 9/12
Big 12: 7/10
ACC: 7/14
Big Ten: 6/14
Big East: 5/8
SEC: 5/14
Atlantic 10: 4/14

Friday, January 15, 2016

Bracketology 1/15/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their autobid.
3) There's some gray area between autobids and at-larges right now: St. Mary's, Cincinnati, UT-Arlington and Valparaiso are all in with autobids but they're all close to the cut-off for an at-large.

1: Oklahoma, Kansas, Xavier, Villanova
2: North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia, Kentucky
3: Iowa, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Duke
4: Purdue, Maryland, West Virginia, USC
5: Iowa State, Oregon, Arizona, Pittsburgh
6: Dayton, Providence, Louisville, Baylor
7: Michigan, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Utah
8: George Washington, Butler, Colorado, Florida
9: Texas, Oregon State, Wichita State, UCLA
10: Notre Dame, Alabama, California, St. Joseph's
11: (Stanford/Indiana) Cincinnati, (Gonzaga/Seton Hall), St. Mary's
12: UT-Arlington, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Hawaii
13: Boise State, Yale, Stony Brook, William and Mary
14: Chattanooga, UAB, Belmont, CSU Bakersfield
15: Weber State, North Florida, Northern Illinois, Nebraska Omaha
16: High Point, Texas A&M CC, (Bucknell/Texas Southern), (Mount St. Mary's/Hampton)

Last Four In: Stanford, Indiana, Gonzaga, Seton Hall
First Four Out: Arizona State, Georgia, Connecticut, Vanderbilt

Monday, January 11, 2016

Bracetology 1/11/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their autobid.
3) Apologies for the late update, I had the whole thing written up this morning and Blogger deleted it. I've learned my lesson to type this up in Google Docs.

1: Michigan State, Kansas, Xavier, Oklahoma
2: Villanova, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Virginia
3: Kentucky, Iowa State, Maryland, Iowa
4: Texas A&M, Duke, Purdue, Pittsburgh
5: Dayton, Providence, Oregon, South Carolina
6: USC, Texas Tech, Florida, Utah
7: Baylor, West Virginia, Arizona, Louisville
8: Oregon State, George Washington, Butler, UCLA
9: California, Michigan, Wichita State, Colorado
10: Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Texas, Indiana
11: Cincinnati, Georgia, (Notre Dame/Connecticut), (St. Mary's/UT-Arlington)
12: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, Akron, Valparaiso
13: Chattanooga, South Dakota State, Hawaii, Boise State
14: UAB, Yale, William and Mary, Stony Brook
15: Belmont, High Point, Montana, Bucknell
16: Cal State Bakersfield, Stephen F. Austin, (Jackson State/Wagner), (North Florida/Hampton)

First Four Out: Alabama, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Arizona State
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, St. Joseph's, Florida State, Davidson

Friday, January 8, 2016

Bracketology 1/8/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their autobid.
3) Apologies if my updates are not as frequent or accurate as they normally are this time of year. A lot of my energy I normally put into this is going into analyzing the committee's decisions since the field expanded to 68 to try to get my final bracket more accurate.
4) Vanderbilt should probably be in for UT-Arlington, but I couldn't resist putting two Sun Belt teams in the field.

1: Michigan State, Kansas, Xavier, Oklahoma
2: North Carolina, Villanova, Iowa StateVirginia
3: DaytonMiami (FL), Purdue, Kentucky
4: Texas A&M, Maryland, Duke, Iowa
5: Texas Tech, Providence, Oregon, Pittsburgh
6: West Virginia, Louisville, Texas, Arizona
7: South Carolina, Florida, USC, Butler
8: Colorado, Utah, California, George Washington
9: Oregon State, Seton Hall, Baylor, UCLA
10: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Wichita State
11: Cincinnati, Georgia, (Michigan/Connecticut), (UT-Arlington/Alabama)
12: Valparaiso, Akron, Arkansas-LR, Monmouth
13: Chattanooga, South Dakota State, Hawaii, Boise State
14: Stony Brook, Northeastern, Yale, UAB
15: Belmont, High Point, Weber State, Army
16: Stephen F. Austin, Cal State Bakersfield, (North Florida/Norfolk State), (Jackson State/Wagner)

Last Four Byes: St. Mary's, Wichita State, Cincinnati, Georgia
Last Four In: Connecticut, Michigan, Alabama, UT-Arlington
First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Stanford, Arizona State, Boise State
Next Four Out: Indiana, Ohio State, St. Joseph's, Florida State
Also Considered: Davidson, Kansas State, Mississippi, Northwestern, Monmouth, UNLV, Arkansas-LR, Wake Forest, Valparaiso, Syracuse, Washington