Saturday, December 31, 2016

Bracketology 12/31/16

Welcome back to my bracketology. As I've done for the past few years, I'm dropping my first seed list of the season on New Year's Eve. A couple of notes:

1) These results are based entirely off of my model, which is heavily dependent on the RPI. Ordinarily, this is a good thing, as the RPI is a solid predictor of the selection committee, but this early in the season the RPI is rather strange and has some very good teams (such as Indiana) absurdly low and some mediocre teams (such as Middle Tennessee) absurdly high. This explains a lot of the strange seeds you'll see, but as the RPI converges with other metrics as conference play goes along this will become less and less of an issue.
2) This seed list does not include any of the New Year's Eve results, it only takes into account the results of the games through December 30th.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Creighton
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Duke, Florida
3: Virginia, Louisville, Florida State, Xavier
4: North Carolina, UCLA, Butler, Oregon
5: USC, Maryland, Arizona, West Virginia
6: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Clemson
7: Purdue, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, SMU
8: Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, Arkansas, Northwestern
9: UNC Wilmington, Illinois, TCU, Notre Dame
10: UT-Arlington, Michigan State, North Carolina State, Temple
11: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Indiana, (VCU/South Carolina)
12: (Dayton/Oklahoma State), Rhode Island, Nevada, Wichita State
13: Chattanooga, Monmouth, Princeton, Valparaiso
14: Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Lehigh, Vermont
15: Tennessee State, Cal State Bakersfield, North Dakota State, Winthrop
16: Weber State, North Carolina Central, (UC Irvine/Texas Southern), (Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Wagner)

First Four Out: Rhode Island, Miami (FL), Nevada, Iowa State
Next Four Out: Kansas State, Michigan, Providence, Wichita State
Also Considered: Georgia, Mississippi, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Marquette, Colorado, Texas Tech, Stanford