Thursday, March 9, 2017

Bracketology 3/10/17

I'm moving Iowa out of the field after their loss to Indiana, and I considered denoting them as a long shot as well. Teams with RPIs in the high 70s don't get simply don't get bids, and Iowa doesn't have the wins Syracuse does to counteract the unwieldy RPI. USC also hurt themselves today- I think they're probably still in but my guess is they'll be in a First Four game.

Today's bubble winners include Michigan State and Northwestern, who took care of business in the Big Ten Tournament and earned locks for it, as well as California and Indiana who got necessary wins. However, both teams still need at least one more win to have a serious shot.

However, the biggest bubble winners of the day were in the Big 12 where Kansas State vaulted into the field with a win over Baylor, and TCU dealt a blow to Kansas' #1 overall seed hopes as well. I think Kansas State is probably in even if they lose to West Virginia, although it's not a sure thing. TCU definitely needs at least one more win, possibly two, to counteract their 6-12 conference record, 14 losses, and RPI of 64.

1: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Oregon, Louisville
3: Baylor, UCLA, Duke, Florida
4: Arizona, Purdue, West Virginia, Notre Dame
5: West Virginia, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State
6: Minnesota, SMU, Maryland, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Dayton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL)
8: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Michigan
9: Wichita State, VCU, Xavier, Seton Hall
10: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Marquette
11: Wake Forest, Providence, (Kansas State/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Iowa, Houston
Also Considered: Illinois, TCU, Indiana, California, Georgia

Moving In: Kansas State
Moving Out: Iowa
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

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