Monday, January 30, 2017

Bracketology 1/31/17

I did a major re-evaluation of resumes yesterday, so despite the lack of games there's lots of movement in this update. Two ACC teams fall out, knocking the conference total down to 10, as Seton Hall and TCU take their place. There's lots of bubble intrigue in the SEC tomorrow, as the mess that is the middle of the conference largely plays each other. I think it's unlikely the SEC gets 5 teams in at the end of the day and nearly impossible it gets 6, although one of the SEC West teams outside the field could get hot in February.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Louisville, Florida State, Butler
3: Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
4: Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, UCLA
5: Duke, Florida, Maryland, West Virginia
6: South Carolina, St. Mary's, Purdue, Notre Dame
7: Xavier, Northwestern, SMU, USC
8: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Arkansas
9: Marquette, VCU, Clemson, Iowa State
10: Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee
11: Oklahoma State, UNC Wilmington, Indiana, (Seton Hall/Miami (FL))
12: (Tennessee/TCU), Illinois State, East Tennessee State, Nevada
13: Vermont, Belmont, Princeton, New Mexico State
14: Bucknell, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State
15: Akron, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (UC Davis/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, California, Wichita State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Texas Tech, Utah, Georgetown, Rhode Island
Also Considered: North Carolina State, Georgia, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Providence, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Syracuse, Auburn, Texas A&M, Stanford, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, Memphis, UT-Arlington, Charleston, Houston, Penn State

Moving In: Seton Hall, TCU, Arkansas State
Moving Out: Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Georgia Southern
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 5  
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Bracketology 1/30/17

Less movement in this update, although Villanova reclaims the #1 overall seed with an impressive win against Virginia. Northwestern got another nice win over Indiana to further distance themselves form the bubble. Also in the Big Ten, Michigan State stopped their skid with a big win over Michigan. Duke/Notre Dame and Oklahoma State/Oklahoma are the only games of interest tonight.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville, Virginia
3: Florida State, Wisconsin, Butler, Cincinnati
4: North Carolina, Oregon, Maryland, West Virginia
5: UCLA, Creighton, South Carolina, Duke
6: St. Mary's, Florida, SMU, Purdue
7: Northwestern, USC, Xavier, Notre Dame
8: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Arkansas
9: Dayton, Michigan State, VCU, Middle Tennessee
10: Marquette, Minnesota, Illinois State, Indiana
11: Kansas  State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, (Oklahoma State/Miami (FL))
12: (Wake Forest/North Carolina State), UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, Nevada
13: Vermont, Belmont, Princeton, Valparaiso
14: Bucknell, New Mexico State, Monmouth, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central, North Dakota State
16: Weber State, Georgia Southern, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (UC Davis/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Wichita State, TCU, Texas Tech
Next Four Out: California, Michigan, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh
Also Considered: Georgia, Utah, Alabama, UT-Arlington, Mississippi, Nebraska, Providence, Illinois, Penn State, Houston, Syracuse, Memphis, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Charleston, La Salle

Moving In: Wake Forest
Moving Out: Michigan
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 12
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
SEC: 5  
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 1/29/17

Lots of movement all around the bracket in Saturday's games. 4 new at-large teams move into the field, as Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech and Miami (FL) all got big wins to strengthen their case. Lots of movement at the top of the bracket as well, as Kentucky, Florida State, Butler, North Carolina and Oregon all lost. This leads to some shakeups near the top, as Wisconsin moves up despite a narrow win against Rutgers and Louisville moves up as well.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Kentucky, Virginia, Florida State
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Butler, Cincinnati
4: North Carolina, Oregon, Maryland, West Virginia
5: UCLA, Creighton, Purdue, South Carolina
6: Duke, St. Mary's, Florida, SMU
7: Northwestern, USC, Xavier, Notre Dame
8: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Arkansas
9: Dayton, VCU, Middle Tennessee, Marquette
10: Minnesota, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois State
11: Kansas  State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, (Oklahoma State/North Carolina State)
12: (Miami (FL)/Michigan), UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, Nevada
13: Vermont, Belmont, Princeton, Valparaiso
14: Bucknell, New Mexico State, Monmouth, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central, North Dakota State
16: Weber State, Georgia Southern, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (UC Davis/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Seton Hall, TCU, Texas Tech
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, Georgia, California
Also Considered: Wichita State, Alabama, Utah, UT-Arlington, Mississippi, Providence, Illinois, Stanford, Penn State, Houston, Syracuse, Memphis,Vanderbilt, Charleston, Nebraska, La Salle

Moving In: Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), UC Davis, UNC Asheville
Moving Out: TCU, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, UC Irvine, Winthrop
Removed From Consideration: Ohio State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
SEC: 5  
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, January 27, 2017

Bracketology 1/27/17

Last night was relatively quiet, although Michigan did get a big win over Indiana to move into the bracket for the first time in a couple of weeks. Elsewhere, the Crosstown Shootout strengthened Cincinnati's hold on a protected seed and moved Xavier closer to the bubble.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas
2: Kentucky, Arizona, Florida State, Butler
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Cincinnati, Oregon
4: Louisville, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Maryland
5: UCLA, Creighton, Purdue, South Carolina
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Notre Dame, Duke
7: SMU, Northwestern, USC, Xavier
8: Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Marquette
9: Dayton, Clemson, Minnesota, Middle Tennessee
10: Michigan State, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington, Indiana
11: VCU, Wake Forest, TCU, Illinois State
12: (North Carolina State/Michigan), (Seton Hall/Pittsburgh), East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Nevada, Akron, Princeton, Monmouth
14: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Belmont
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Winthrop, North Carolina Central, Georgia Southern
16: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, (Weber State/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, California, Wichita State, Illinois
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Georgia, Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, UT-Arlington, Stanford, Houston, La Salle, Memphis, Charleston, Nebraska, Penn State, Providence, Ohio State

Moving In: Michigan
Moving Out: Tennessee
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4 
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Bracketology 1/26/17

Another 1 seed fell last night, as Florida State was destroyed by Georgia Tech. Kansas jumps back up to the 1-line as a result, after only a 1 day absence. The win for the Yellow Jackets moves them up significantly, but they're still not in the field. Elsewhere, it continues to be a horrible year for non-Power 6 conferences as Rhode Island lost to Richmond, knocking them out of the field. Right now, I only have 3 non-Power 6 teams in that aren't leading their conference.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas
2: Kentucky, Arizona, Florida State, Butler
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Louisville
4: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Maryland
5: UCLA, Creighton, Purdue, South Carolina
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Notre Dame, Duke
7: SMU, Xavier, USC, Virginia Tech
8: Northwestern, Iowa State, Arkansas, Marquette
9: Dayton, Indiana, Clemson, Minnesota
10: Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington
11: VCU, Wake Forest, TCU, Illinois State
12: (North Carolina State/Seton Hall), (Pittsburgh/Tennessee), East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Nevada, Akron, Princeton, Monmouth
14: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Belmont
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Winthrop, North Carolina Central, Georgia Southern
16: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, (Weber State/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Michigan
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, California, Wichita State, Illinois
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Utah, Georgia, Charleston, Mississippi, Alabama, UT-Arlington, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, La Salle, Memphis, Penn State, Providence, Ohio State

Moving In: Tennessee, East Tennessee State
Moving Out: Rhode Island, Chattanooga
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Bracketology 1/25/17

There's a big shakeup on the 1 line as Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova all lose. Kansas and Kentucky both fall to the 2 line, while Villanova cedes the top overall seed to Baylor. Undefeated Gonzaga and Florida State move up to the 1 line. The Zags probably need to go undefeated to get a 1 seed, though they may be able to afford a single loss to St. Mary's. Florida State has more opportunities to pad their resume. At the bubble, Tennessee moves into serious contention with the win over Kentucky and is now my first team out, while Marquette's win over Villanova vaults them off the bubble for now.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Florida State
2: Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Creighton
4: UCLA, Louisville, Cincinnati, Wisconsin
5: West Virginia, South Carolina, Maryland, Purdue
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Notre Dame, Duke
7: Xavier, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Iowa State, Minnesota, Arkansas, Marquette
9: Dayton, USC, Indiana, Clemson
10: Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington
11: VCU, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, (TCU/North Carolina State)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Pittsburgh), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Akron, Princeton, Monmouth
14: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Belmont
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Winthrop, North Carolina Central, Georgia Southern
16: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, (Weber State/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Georgia, California, Wichita State, Illinois
Also Considered: Mississippi, Miami (FL), Utah, Georgia Tech, La Salle, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Memphis, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Alabama, Central Florida, Penn State

Moving In: Mount St. Mary's
Moving Out: Fairleigh Dickinson
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, January 23, 2017

Bracketology 1/24/17

The big news of the night is North Carolina State doing what Miami could not on Saturday and beating Duke in Durham. The win vaults the Wolfpack 10 spots up my seed list, enough to get them into a First Four game. There's a number of intriguing games tomorrow, but from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Kansas State and Iowa State. A win for either team would go a long ways to getting off the bubble for good.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland, St. Mary's
6: Florida, Xavier, Duke, West Virginia
7: Purdue, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Minnesota, Dayton, USC, Michigan State
9: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State
10: Clemson, Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington
11: Marquette, VCU, Seton Hall, (Pittsburgh/TCU)
12: Illinois State, (North Carolina State/Rhode Island), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, (Texas Southern/UC Irvine), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Illinois, Mississippi, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State,
Next Four Out: Michigan, Georgia, California, Wichita State
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Utah, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, La Salle, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Memphis, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Penn State, Alabama, Central Florida

Moving In: North Carolina State
Moving Out: Illinois
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Bracketology 1/23/17

Little action of note in Sunday's games. Northwestern takes another step on their road to that elusive tourney bid with a win at Ohio State. That loss for the Buckeyes knocks them out of at-large consideration for me, as they have an RPI in the mid-80s and a 2-7 record against the RPI top 50. Elsewhere, USC narrowly avoids a damaging loss at home to Arizona State.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Xavier, West Virginia
7: Purdue, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Minnesota, Dayton, USC, Michigan State
9: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State
10: Clemson, Wake Forest, TCU, Middle Tennessee
11: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, VCU, (Seton Hall/Pittsburgh)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Illinois), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, (Texas Southern/UC Irvine), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Texas Tech, Michigan, Georgia
Next Four Out: California, Wichita State, Miami (FL), Utah
Also Considered: North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, La Salle, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Memphis, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Penn State, Alabama, Central Florida

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Ohio State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 1/22/17

Lots of movement yesterday, as Marquette got a huge win @ Creighton to move into the bracket. Elsewhere, Arizona beat UCLA and passes them in the bracket, and Florida State is now first in line for a 1-seed should any of the current 1-seeds lose.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland
6: St. Mary's, Florida, West Virginia, Xavier
7: SMU, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern
8: Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC, Clemson
9: Michigan State, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State
10: Kansas State, Wake Forest, TCU, Middle Tennessee
11: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, Seton Hall, (Pittsburgh/VCU)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Illinois), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, (Texas Southern/UC Irvine), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Texas Tech, Michigan, Georgia
Next Four Out: California, Wichita State, Miami (FL), Utah
Also Considered: La Salle, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Stanford, Nebraska, Houston, Central Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Memphis

Moving In: Rhode Island, Marquette, North Carolina Central, Fairleigh Dickinson
Moving Out: Texas Tech, Georgia, Morgan State, LIU-Brooklyn

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, January 20, 2017

Bracketology 1/20/17

A good deal of bubble movement in the last two days as Kansas State and Texas Tech move in due to wins over fellow Big 12 bubble teams Oklahoma State and TCU, while losses cause California and Miami (FL) to drop out. Elsewhere, VCU is in serious bubble trouble after a loss to Fordham, and South Carolina is within striking distance of a protected seed now after a win against Florida. A win at Rupp this weekend might put them on the 3 line.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Arizona
4: Oregon, Virginia, Florida, Notre Dame
5: Duke, South Carolina, Cincinnati, West Virginia
6: Minnesota, Maryland, St. Mary's, Xavier
7: Wisconsin, Purdue, SMU, Northwestern
8: Michigan State, Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC
9: TCU, Clemson, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee
10: UNC Wilmington, Iowa State, Wake Forest, Indiana
11: Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, (Illinois/Kansas State)
12: (Georgia/VCU), Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, North Dakota State
16: Weber State, Texas Southern, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Long Island/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Rhode Island, Mississippi, California, Marquette
Next Four Out: Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Wichita State, Utah
Also Considered: Michigan, La Salle, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Charleston, UT-Arlington, Providence, Tennessee, Stanford, Alabama, Houston, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Central Florida, Ohio State, Memphis

Moving In: Texas Tech, Kansas State
Moving Out: California, Miami (FL)

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Bracketology 1/18/17

1) Relatively few changes today, although NC State's win over Pittsburgh moves both teams closer towards the cut line. There's a number of interesting games tonight, but I'll be keeping my eye on Kansas State @ Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are a talented team and most advanced metrics say they're tourney-worthy, but a loss tonight would put them at 0-6 in the Big 12, meaning they'd probably need to go 8-4 down the stretch to make the tournament.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Creighton, Florida State, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida
4: Oregon, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia
5: Arizona, Duke, Cincinnati, Minnesota
6: St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina, Xavier
7: Wisconsin, Purdue, SMU, TCU
8: Northwestern, USC, Michigan State, Dayton
9: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, VCU
10: Middle Tennessee, Iowa State, Seton Hall, UNC Wilmington
11: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Indiana, (Georgia/Wake Forest)
12: (California/Miami (FL)), Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Dakota State, Texas Southern, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Long Island/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Rhode Island, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Marquette, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Wichita State
Also Considered: Charleston, Georgia Tech, Utah, Michigan, La Salle, Houston, UT-Arlington, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State, Tennessee, Stanford, Alabama, Central Florida


Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 5
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Bracketology 1/17/17

1) Major changes in this update, as some teams are making legitimate pushes to make the tournament (Georgia, California) while others can't win a conference game to save their lives and are falling out of contention. (North Carolina State, Oklahoma State)

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida
4: Oregon, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia
5: Arizona, Duke, Cincinnati, Xavier
6: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina
7: Wisconsin, SMU, Purdue, TCU
8: Northwestern, USC, Michigan State, Dayton
9: Clemson, Virginia Tech, TCU, Middle Tennessee
10: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Arkansas, Seton Hall
11: Illinois, UNC Wilmington, (Indiana/Georgia), (Wake Forest/California)
12: Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont, Nevada
13: Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Akron
14: New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Richmond
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Dakota State, Texas Southern, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Long Island/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Marquette, Rhode Island
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Mississippi, Wichita State, Charleston
Also Considered: Michigan, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Utah, La Salle, Tennessee, Houston, UT-Arlington, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State, Stanford, Alabama, Central Florida


Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Bracketology 1/12/17

1) Only one change among the at-large teams, as Marquette's win over Seton Hall jumps them into my field for the first time this year while NC State falls out thanks to a loss at Boston College. Considering how brutal the rest of the ACC is, that was a loss the Wolfpack really couldn't afford. Elsewhere, Dayton and Arkansas fall perilously close to the cutline with bad losses to UMass and Mississippi State, helping out the likes of Illinois and Texas Tech.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky, Baylor
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, UCLA
3: North Carolina, Butler, Xavier, West Virginia
4: Notre Dame, Louisville, Duke, Florida
5: Virginia, Arizona, Maryland, Oregon
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Purdue
7: Wisconsin, Clemson, USC, SMU
8: South Carolina, TCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
9: Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Indiana, Illinois
10: Iowa State, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Texas Tech
11: Dayton, (Arkansas/VCU), (Wake Forest/Marquette), Wichita State
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State
13: Boise State, Oakland, Vermont, Princeton
14: Ohio, Monmouth, Florida Gulf Coast, Lehigh
15: New Mexico State, UNC Asheville, Belmont, Fort Wayne
16: Weber State, UC Irvine, (North Carolina Central/Texas Southern), (Houston Baptist/Wagner)

First Four Out: North Carolina State, Rhode Island, Kansas State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, California, Central Florida, Georgia
Also Considered: Temple, Texas A&M, Providence, Illinois State, Mississippi, Houston, Nebraska, Ohio State, Colorado

Bids By Conference:
ACC (11), Big Ten (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (2), American (2), West Coast (2)

Monday, January 9, 2017

Bracketology 1/9/17

1) Most of the movement this update is on the 5-10 lines, as there's no new at-large teams and only two changes among the protected seeds. The most notable bubble action was probably California's win at USC to launch themselves into legitimate consideration, and UT-Arlington's damaging loss to Texas State.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida State, Butler
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Xavier, Duke
4: Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Virginia
5: Florida, West Virginia, Oregon, Cincinnati
6: Maryland, Arizona, St. Mary's, Purdue
7: Wisconsin, Clemson, USC, SMU
8: South Carolina, Arkansas, Northwestern, Indiana
9: Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, TCU
10: Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Miami (FL), Illinois
11: Michigan State, UNC Wilmington, (Wake Forest/Iowa State), (North Carolina State/Texas Tech)
12: VCU, Wichita State, East Tennessee State, Boise State
13: Oakland, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Belmont, Harvard
15: Georgia Southern, North Dakota State, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, (Rider/UC Davis), (New Orleans/Farleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Michigan, Rhode Island, Temple
Next Four Out: Kansas State, Marquette, Providence, UT-Arlington
Also Considered: Mississippi, California, Central Florida, Texas A&M, Nevada, Houston, Georgia, Nebraska, Ohio State, Colorado

Bids By Conference:
ACC (12), Big Ten (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (2), American (2), West Coast (2)

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Bracketology 1/5/16

1) A considerable amount of movement has happened in the past 3 days, mainly on the bubble. North Carolina State and Texas Tech moved into the bracket with big wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia respectively, and Rhode Island and Oklahoma State fell out as a result.

2) I have 12 of the 15 ACC teams in the field right now- I don't anticipate this will hold up, but I could definitely see 10 ACC teams getting in. It'll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates an ACC team that is 7-11 in conference, as no team that has gone 7-11 in conference has even been under serious bubble consideration in the past 5 years. In fact, only 6 teams with losing conference records have gotten at-larges in the last 5 years.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida State, Butler
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Xavier, Duke
4: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon
5: Minnesota, Virginia, USC, Wisconsin
6: West Virginia, Arizona, St. Mary's, Cincinnati
7: Clemson, Pittsburgh, Arkansas, Maryland
8: SMU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, South Carolina
9: Purdue, TCU, Seton Hall, Michigan State
10: Illinois, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, Miami (FL)
11: Wake Forest, (North Carolina State/Iowa State), UNC Wilmington, (Dayton/Texas Tech)
12: VCU, UT-Arlington, Wichita State, Boise State
13: Oakland, Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Akron
14: Yale, New Mexico State, Bucknell, North Dakota State
15: Samford, Weber State, North Carolina Central, Canisius
16: Jacksonville State, Texas Southern, (UC Davis/Southeastern Louisiana), (Mount Saint Mary's/Longwood)

First Four Out: Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
Next Four Out: Providence, Marquette, Temple, Kansas State
Also Considered: Texas A&M, Central Florida, Ohio State, Mississippi, Colorado, Houston, Nebraska, Nevada, Georgia, California, Auburn

Bids By Conference:
ACC (12), Big Ten (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (2), American (2), West Coast (2)

Sunday, January 1, 2017

Brackteology 1/2/16

1) Most teams have now begun conference play, and thus the general picture of the bracket is beginning to take shape. We're deep enough into the season that most of the top 8 seeds here are going to make the tournament. Just for reference, 28 of the 32 top 8 seeds in my first bracketology last year made the tournament, including all the 5 seeds and above. Also, 11 of the protected seeds in the tournament were protected seeds in my first bracketology of the year. It seems pretty likely that the top of the bracket now looks similar to how it'll look come Selection Sunday.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Louisville, Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida State
3: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, Virginia
4: Florida, Butler, North Carolina, Oregon
5: West Virginia, Minnesota, USC, Clemson
6: Notre Dame, Arizona, St. Mary's, Cincinnati
7: Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arkansas
8: SMU, Northwestern, Purdue, Pittsburgh
9: Illinois, TCU, Indiana, Miami (FL)
10: Seton Hall, South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington
11: Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, (Iowa State/Dayton), UT-Arlington
12: VCU, (Michigan State/Rhode Island), Wichita State, Nevada
13: Chattanooga, Princeton, Monmouth, Valparaiso
14: Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Lehigh, Vermont
15: Cal State Bakersfield, North Dakota State, Tennessee State, Weber State
16: Winthrop, North Carolina Central, (UC Irvine/Texas Southern), (Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Wagner)

Last Four In: Iowa State, Michigan State, Dayton, Rhode Island
First Four Out: North Carolina State, Temple, Wichita State, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Michigan, Texas A&M, Providence, Georgia
Also Considered: Mississippi, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Nevada, Houston, Marquette, California, Auburn, Colorado

Moving In: Iowa State, Rhode Island
Moving Out: Temple, North Carolina State
Removed From Consideration: Georgetown, Syracuse