Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Bracketology 3/1/17

The biggest news of the night was Vanderbilt's total collapse at Kentucky- they could've put themselves in a very comfortable position with a win but now they're right on the cut line. They'll fall out if Illinois beats Michigan State tomorrow.

Aside from the aforementioned Illinois/Michigan State game, tomorrow's big bubble games include a huge opportunity for Wake Forest at home against Louisville, a Michigan/Northwestern matchup where the winner is probably a lock and a Kansas State/TCU game that might be an elimination game.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, Arizona
4: Florida State, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Iowa State, Maryland, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, Xavier, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State
9: Arkansas, Michigan State, VCU, Michigan
10: Wichita State, Northwestern, Providence, Seton Hall
11: USC, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: (Rhode Island/Vanderbilt), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, Belmont
14: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16:UC Irvine, North Dakota, (North Carolina Central/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Illinois, California, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Kansas State, TCU, Clemson, Houston
Also Considered: Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas Tech

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Pittsburgh, Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, February 27, 2017

Bracketology 2/28/17

I re-ran my model this afternoon, and it produced some interesting results. First, Gonzaga is now off my 1-line and Louisville is in their place. However, Louisville, Butler and the 4 2-seeds are all incredibly close to each other, and I think that any team on the 1 or 2 lines could end up with a 1 seed.

The other notable result was that Rhode Island shot up into my field, as my model is impressed with their RPI (44) and the fact that they have two RPI top 25 wins (Cincinnati and VCU).

Tomorrow's bubble action includes must wins for Georgetown (@ Seton Hall) and Indiana (@ Purdue) as both teams search for quality wins to move into the field. Elsewhere, Vanderbilt has a chance for the ultimate SEC marquee win at Rupp Arena and Providence will be attempting to avoid the ultimate Big East bad loss at home against DePaul.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky
3: Butler, Florida State, Florida, Arizona
4: Duke, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Maryland, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Iowa State
8: South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Miami (FL)
9: Arkansas, Michigan State, VCU, Michigan
10: Wichita State, Northwestern, Providence, USC
11: Seton Hall, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, (Syracuse/Vanderbilt)
12: (Illinois State/Rhode Island), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, Belmont
14: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16:UC Irvine, North Dakota, (North Carolina Central/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Illinois, California, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Kansas State, TCU, Clemson, Houston
Also Considered: Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Georgetown, Mississippi, Texas Tech, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Rhode Island
Moving Out: California
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Bracketology 2/27/17

Sunday was much quieter than Saturday, with the most notable results being Michigan State's win over Wisconsin that probably guarantees their safety, and Cincinnati's loss to UCF which probably kills their chances of a protected seed. Illinois also got an important win against Nebraska and USC dropped their 4th straight against Arizona State.

Monday's action will be entertaining, as Baylor must beat West Virginia to retain any hope of a 1 seed and North Carolina's grip on one will slip if they fall in Charlottesville. However, there's nothing going on on the bubble tomorrow.

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Arizona
3: UCLA, Florida State, Butler, Kentucky
4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Notre Dame
5: Minnesota, Duke, SMU, Virginia
6: Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Iowa State
7: Creighton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Dayton
8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Seton Hall, VCU
10: Xavier, Providence, Wichita State, Northwestern
11: Middle Tennessee, USC, Illinois State, (Syracuse/California)
12: UNC Wilmington, (Vanderbilt/Wake Forest), Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16: North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Illinois, Marquette, TCU
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Georgia, Indiana, Rhode Island
Also Considered: Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Houston, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, South Dakota
Moving Out: Marquette, Kansas State, North Dakota State
Removed From Consideration: Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Bracketology 2/26/17

Although I was expecting the biggest result of the day to come in the ACC, Gonzaga's first loss of the season at home to BYU was the big news of Saturday. I have Gonzaga on the 1 line for now but I may change that this week- the Zags have an RPI of 10 and no team with a double digit RPI has gotten a 1 seed since the tournament expanded to 68.

A quick roundup of the day's bubble winners:

Providence got a big comeback win against Marquette and is in the field if they win their last two regular season games (vs. DePaul and @ St. John's).

Miami (FL) is a lock after their win over Duke.

Iowa State is a lock after their win over Baylor.

Wichita State and Illinois State both cruised. I think it's highly unlikely the Shockers miss the field, and I think the Redbirds are in if they make it to the Arch Madness finals.


And the losers:

Clemson took another brutal one-possession loss and needs to win their last two regular season games and then make a serious run in the ACC tournament to have a shot.

VCU is not totally safe after their loss to Rhode Island. If they beat George Mason and make A-10 semis their fine, but fail to do either and it could get a bit dicey.

Kansas State lost by 30 points on the road to a deceptively good Oklahoma team, but it's still not a good look. A split of their next two and a loss in the Big 12 quarters will probably not be enough to get them in.

If Georgetown's at-large hopes weren't totally dead after they lost to DePaul, they certainly are after today's loss to St. John's.

Marquette will be on the nose of the bubble for the next two weeks. Winning their last two regular season games would probably put them in, though.

Northwestern is quickly hurtling towards bubble danger. 1 more win in the regular season or conference tournament should be enough, but if they lose out I don't think they'll get a bid.

Tennessee got whacked by South Carolina and absolutely has to finish the regular season 2-0.

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Arizona, Louisville
3: UCLA, Florida State, Kentucky, Butler
4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Duke, SMU
6: Virginia, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's
7: Iowa State, Creighton, Miami (FL), Dayton
8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, South Carolina
9: Arkansas, Xavier, USC, Michigan State
10: Seton Hall, VCU, Providence, Wichita State
11: Northwestern, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, (Illinois State/California)
12: UNC Wilmington, (Vanderbilt/Wake Forest), Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16: North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Marquette, Illinois, TCU
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Georgia, Indiana, Georgia Tech
Also Considered: Rhode Island, Mississippi, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Houston, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, South Dakota
Moving Out: Marquette, Kansas State, North Dakota State
Removed From Consideration: Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Bracketology 2/24/17

The biggest bubble result of the night was Georgia's win in Tuscaloosa, which bumped the Crimson Tide out of at-large consideration and put the Bulldogs within striking distance of the field. If Georgia wins their last 3 regular season games and makes the SEC semis I think they have a good shot at a bid. Ohio State also got a big win against Wisconsin to keep their faint hopes alive




Dayton is the only bubble team in action tomorrow night, although the Flyers are going to make the field barring a total collapse. However, a trip to Davidson is the kind of game that's a nightmare for a bubble team, as it's legitimately tough but a win is not going to gain much favor in the eyes of the committee.

1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame, SMU
6: Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina, Xavier
9: Arkansas, VCU, USC, Michigan
10: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Northwestern
11: Kansas State, Wichita State, (Providence/California), (Marquette/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Valparaiso, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, TCU
Next Four Out: Illinois, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Mississippi

Also Considered: Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Indiana, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, Houston, Georgetown
Moving In: North Dakota
Moving Out: Weber State
Removed From Consideration: Alabama

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/23/17

Last night was a huge one on the bubble- Providence jumps into the bracket for the first time in more than a month with a huge win @Creighton.  Other big bubble winners include Vanderbilt, who despite their hefty loss count is now in the First Four Out, and Syracuse who has climbed out of the first four. California lete a huge chance slip away as they blew a near-20 point lead against Oregon, and Tennessee moves out after a damaging home loss to Vanderbilt. A lighter slate tonight- from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Nebraska/Michigan State.

1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame
6: SMU, Virginia, Maryland, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina, Xavier
9: USC, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan
10: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Northwestern
11: Kansas State, Wichita State, (Providence/California), (Marquette/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Valparaiso, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, TCU
Next Four Out: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Mississippi, Clemson

Also Considered: Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, Houston, Georgetown, Alabama, Ohio State

Moving In: Providence
Moving Out: Tennessee
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Bracketology 2/22/17

Clemson is joining Texas Tech in the club of bubble teams that sure look like tournament teams but just can't catch a break. After their loss at Virginia Tech last night, Clemson probably need to go 3-0 down the stretch to have a chance at the tournament.

Last night was pretty uneventful for the bubble, but tonight promises to be different as Kansas State, Syracuse, California  and Seton Hall all have huge opportunities at home against teams safely in the field. Vanderbilt/Tennessee and Pittsburgh/Wake Forest have big implications as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Florida, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame
6: Creighton, SMU, Virginia, St. Mary's
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina
9: USC, Michigan State, Arkansas, VCU
10: Michigan, Northwestern, Kansas State, Wichita State
11: Seton Hall, California, (Tennessee/Marquette), (Illinois State/Syracuse) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Valparaiso, Akron
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: TCU, Providence, Wake Forest, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Mississippi

Also Considered: Clemson, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana, Rhode Island, Houston, UT-Arlington, Nevada, Alabama, Ohio State

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Monmouth, Penn State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, February 20, 2017

Bracketology 2/21/17

The biggest result of the night was Virginia dropping their 4th straight game, this time at home to Miami. This moves the Hurricanes up to the 8-line, and they're looking quite solid for a bid now barring a complete collapse down the stretch. And yes, Virginia is in even if they lose every game left on their schedule. Texas Tech's last 4 losses have either come in OT, double OT, or been by a single point in regulation. They'll probably have to beat Kansas in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals to have a chance now.

Tuesday night's slate is relatively light, Clemson @ Virginia Tech is the most intriguing bubble game. In the Big Ten, Indiana faces a must-win @ Iowa, and Northwestern has a deceptively tricky game @ Illinois.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame
6: Creighton, SMU, Virginia, St. Mary's
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, South Carolina
9: USC, Northwestern, Michigan State, Arkansas
10: VCU, Michigan, Kansas State, Wichita State
11: Seton Hall, California, (Tennessee/Marquette), (Illinois State/Syracuse) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount Saint Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: TCU, Georgia Tech, Providence, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Clemson, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Indiana

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Bracketology 2/20/17

Georgia Tech got a huge win over Syracuse, and they move up to the First Four Out. However, the biggest surprise of the night was Oregon State getting their first conference win, knocking Utah out of the bubble picture for good.

Iowa State @ Texas Tech is the most intriguing game on Monday's slate- Texas Tech is just outside my Next Four Out despite their 5-9 conference record. Virginia will be looking to stop their slide against Miami as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Virginia, Wisconsin, Maryland
6: Notre Dame, Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, USC, Iowa State, South Carolina
9: Northwestern, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Arkansas
10: VCU, Michigan, Kansas State, Wichita State
11: Seton Hall, California, (Tennessee/Marquette), (Illinois State/Syracuse) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount Saint Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: TCU, Georgia Tech, Providence, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Clemson, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Indiana

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Utah

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Bracketology 2/19/17

Lots of action happened near the bubble on Saturday, although there weren't any terribly surprising results. Miami's win over Clemson moved the Hurricanes up towards relative safety and Clemson falling further form the field. Wake Forest came close to getting a resume-defining win @Duke, Vanderbilt may have gotten one themselves against South Carolina. Despite their 13 losses, Vanderbilt has a feasible path to the tournament if they can finish the regular season 3-1.

It seems like there's a big bubble matchup every night in the ACC, and Sunday will be no different as Syracuse takes on Georgia Tech. Georgetown also has a chance to climb into the bracket against Creighton.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, Maryland
5: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Virginia, Notre Dame
6: SMU, Creighton, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, USC, Iowa State, South Carolina
9: Northwestern, Miami (FL), Michigan, Michigan State
10: Arkansas, VCU, Kansas State, Wichita State
11: Syracuse, Seton Hall, (California/Tennessee), (Marquette/Illinois State) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Princeton
14: Belmont, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Mount Saint Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: TCU, Providence, Wake Forest, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Indiana

Moving In: Marquette, East Tennessee State
Moving Out: TCU, Furman
Removed From Consideration: Auburn, Iowa

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7  
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Bracketology 2/17/17

The main result in Thursday's action was Michigan's win over Wisconsin- the Wolverines have improved their stock significantly since their home loss to Ohio State and are now away from the main bubble circus. Wisconsin has tumbled from the AP top 10 to a 7 seed, and has surrendered sole possession of first place in the Big Ten for the first time in weeks.

VCU and California are the only teams of note playing tonight, although both have the high-risk low-reward situation of playing competent teams (Richmond and Stanford, respectively) on the road.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Butler, Purdue, UCLA, Virginia
5: Maryland, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Creighton
6: Notre Dame, SMU, Minnesota, St. Mary's
7: Xavier, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, USC, Dayton, Northwestern
9: Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa State, VCU
10: Arkansas, Miami (FL), Wichita State, California
11: Kansas State, Seton Hall, (TCU/Syracuse), (Tennessee/Illinois State) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Nevada, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth 
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State 
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Clemson, Providence, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Marquette, Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Indiana

Moving In: UC Irvine
Moving Out: UC Davis
Removed From Consideration: Texas A&M, Memphis

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7 
Big East: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Bracketology 2/16/17

A busy day on the bubble, with lots of movement in both directions. Arkansas got a huge win at South Carolina, which more or less cancels out their loss against Missouri a few days ago. It was a good day for Big East bubble teams, as both Seton Hall and Providence capitalized on the winnable opportunities I mentioned yesterday. Seton Hall catapulted into the field as a result, and Providence moved up to the First Four Out. By far the biggest loser of the night was Rhode Island, whose chances for an at-large probably depend on making the A-10 title game after a horrible home loss to RPI 190 Fordham. Putting up only 43 points at home to a team in the bottom half of D1 is not how you play your way into the field.

Wisconsin @ Michigan is the main attraction of Thursday's slate- the Wolverines could give themselves a huge bump with a win. A loss for the Badgers would cause them to lose sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, and send them tumbling towards an 8/9 game. The other bubble action of note is Utah traveling to Eugene, a win is unlikely for the Utes but they're far enough out of the field that they need miracles like this to go their way.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Butler, Purdue, UCLA, Virginia
5: Maryland, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Creighton
6: Notre Dame, Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota
7: St. Mary's, Xavier, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, USC, Dayton, Northwestern
9: Michigan State, Iowa State, VCU, Arkansas
10: Miami (FL), Wichita State, California, Michigan
11: Kansas State, Seton Hall, (TCU/Syracuse), (Tennessee/Illinois State) 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Nevada, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth 
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State 
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (Mount Saint Mary's/UC Davis)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Clemson, Providence, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Marquette, Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Indiana

Moving In: Seton Hall
Moving Out: Wake Forest
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7 
Big East: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bracketology 2/15/17

The most important game of the night was in the ACC, where Clemson picked up their 4th ACC win over Wake Forest. Clemson will be an interesting team down the stretch- I think there's a legitimate chance they'll be the first team with a 7-11 conference record to make the tourney (since the field expanded to 68, which is as far back as my data goes), should they go 3-2 to close out ACC play. No team with a 7-11 conference record has even been in serious at-large consideration. For reference, here's the teams that made the field with a losing conference record:

2015 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 rated conference in Kenpom)
2015 Texas (11 seed, #1 conference)
2014 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Illinois (7 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Minnesota (11 seed, #1 conference)
2012 Connecticut (9 seed, #3 conference)

There's enough precedent of 8-10 teams who were reasonably safe (teams that end up with 9 seeds or better are generally not in any real danger of missing the tournament on Selection Sunday) that makes me think it's only a matter of time until a team with a 7-11 conference record gets in. This year's Big 12 is the strongest conference from 2012 onwards, and I think Oklahoma State or Kansas State could get a bid with a 7-11 mark in conference and a respectable Big 12 tourney showing. Clemson could also be in the mix at 7-11.

Looking ahead to Wednesday's action, my eyes will be on the Big 12 as the aforementioned Oklahoma State and Kansas State squads take on TCU and Iowa State respectively. It's a big day in the Big East as well, as Seton Hall and Providence have games that fall in the Goldilocks zone of being winnable, yet impressive on the team sheet, when they take on Creighton and Xavier at home, respectively. 

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Kentucky,
Florida, Virginia
4: Butler, Duke, Creighton, Purdue
5: UCLA,
Cincinnati, West Virginia, Notre Dame
6: Wisconsin, Xavier, Maryland, South Carolina
7: SMU, St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern
8:
Virginia Tech, USC, Dayton, Oklahoma State
9:
Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State, TCU
10: California, Iowa State, Wichita State, Miami (FL)
11: Arkansas, Michigan, (Syracuse/Tennessee), (Wake Forest/Illinois State)
 
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Nevada, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth  
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State  
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (Mount Saint Mary's/UC Davis)

First Four Out: Clemson, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out:
Marquette, Rhode Island, Indiana, Providence
 
Moving In: Nevada, UC Davis
Moving Out: Boise State, UC Irvine
Removed From Consideration: Richmond, Boise State
 

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
 
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2 

Monday, February 13, 2017

Bracketology 2/14/17

I did my resume re-evaluation that I do every two weeks this afternoon, so there's a lot of movement throughout the bracket. This shuffling moved Illinois State into the bracket, which gives the Missouri Valley 2 bids for the first time all year in my bracket. My hunch is that if both Illinois State and Wichita State win out until the final of Arch Madness, both will make the field regardless of the result of that game. The eye test certainly leads me to think both of them belong in the field, especially considering Wichita State's top-20 Kenpom mark.

Elsewhere in the action of the night, we got to witness 2 overtime thrillers as neither Syracuse nor West Virginia were able to pull off an upset. Kansas was as impressive as any team I've seen this year in their comeback against the Mountaineers. West Virginia, despite the love advanced metrics have for them, fall out of the protected seeds- the worst RPI to get a protected seed since the tournament expanded to 68 was 2015 Georgetown (with an RPI of 25). West Virginia's mark of 29 is unprecedented for a protected seed.


Tomorrow's bubble intrigue lies mainly in the ACC as Wake Forest takes on Clemson, as the Tigers look to stop their plunge which has knocked them out of my bracket for the first time all year. Elsewhere, Pittsburgh and Ohio State will be looking to keep their faint bubble hopes alive.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Kentucky, Virginia, Florida
4: Butler, Duke, Creighton, Purdue
5: UCLA, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Cincinnati
6: Notre Dame, Xavier, Maryland, South Carolina
7: SMU, St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern
8: USC, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech
9: VCU, TCU, Michigan State, California
10: Kansas State, Iowa State, Wichita State, Miami (FL)
11: Arkansas, Wake Forest, (Michigan/Syracuse), (Tennessee/Illinois State)

12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Princeton, Boise State, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Marquette, Georgetown, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Clemson, Indiana, Rhode Island, Providence

Moving In: Illinois State, Tennessee
Moving Out: Georgia Tech, Clemson
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7

SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2

Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2 

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Bracketology 2/13/17

The two teams the committee were getting the most heat for leaving out of their top 16, Cincinnati and Wisconsin, both lost today. Wisconsin's loss to Northwestern in Madison was huge for the Wildcats, as their bid was looking a bit in jeopardy after the loss to Illinois earlier in the week. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Michigan is in my field for the first time in a few weeks as they knocked off Indiana at Assembly Hall. I've got an interesting quirk in my bracket today- my first four teams out are all from the Big East!

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, West Virginia
4: Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Purdue
5: SMU, Notre Dame, Butler, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, Xavier, Wisconsin, Maryland
7: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern, South Carolina
8: VCU, USC, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State
9: Dayton, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU
10: Michigan State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Wichita State
11: California, Miami (FL), (Georgia Tech/Arkansas), Middle Tennessee
12: (Syracuse/Michigan), UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Princeton, Boise State, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Marquette, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Illinois State, Mississippi

Moving In: Michigan, Boise State
Moving Out: Marquette, Nevada
Removed From Consideration: Nevada

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 12
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/12/17

Nothing about the committee's top 4 seed lines was a total shock, I incorrectly had Cincinnati and Purdue in my top 4 seeds while they had Duke and West Virginia. Already, there's been some movement up there as Florida State and Butler both lost. On the bubble, Marquette and Seton Hall took losses, and every team in the Big East besides DePaul and St. John's is in my field or is one of my first 3 teams out. Needless to say, the Big East tournament will be interesting.

Today features the game of the year in the American, as Cincinnati takes on SMU in Dallas. Michigan can climb into the field with a win at Indiana today, a loss for the Hoosiers would put them at 5-8 in the Big Ten and potentially in a position where they'd need to sweep the rest of their regular season schedule.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Virginia, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky
4: West Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Cincinnati
5: Purdue, Notre Dame, Butler, Wisconsin
6: Creighton, SMU, Xavier, Minnesota
7: St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina, VCU
8: USC, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Iowa State
9: Northwestern, Kansas State, TCU, Michigan State
10: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, California
11: Miami (FL), Wichita State, (Georgia Tech/Arkansas), Middle Tennessee
12: (Syracuse/Marquette), UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Nevada
13: UT-Arlington, Belmont, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence, Michigan
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Illinois State, Mississippi

Moving In: Arkansas, UT-Arlington, Cal State Bakersfield
Moving Out: Seton Hall, Arkansas State, New Mexico State
Removed From Consideration: Texas A&M, Alabama, Stanford

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 12
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, February 10, 2017

Bracketology 2/10/17

Most of the day's action occurred near the 4/5 lines, as UCLA beat Oregon to move into a protected seed and Duke almost moved up to the 4-line themselves with their win over North Carolina. Indiana fell further from the field, and probably needs to go 4-2 in their last 6 to have a chance. Dayton @ Rhode Island is the main attraction tonight- I'll move the Rams into the field if they win.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor
2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, Florida State
3: North Carolina, Butler, Kentucky, Cincinnati
4: Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Florida
5: Wisconsin, Duke, Creighton, West Virginia
6: Xavier, St. Mary's, SMU, Notre Dame
7: Minnesota, USC, South Carolina, Maryland
8: VCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
9: TCU, Dayton, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
10: Clemson, California, Michigan State, Miami (FL)
11: Syracuse, (Seton Hall/Georgia Tech), Wichita State, (Marquette/Wake Forest)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont
13: Princeton, Nevada, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State, Furman
15: UNC Asheville, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Arkansas, Tennessee, Rhode Island, Vanderbilt
Next Four Out: Michigan, Illinois State, Indiana, Georgetown

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 12
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Bracketology 2/9/17

Few changes in today's bracket, Miami's win over Virginia Tech is the only result that jumped off the page to me, and that just brings those two teams slightly closer together.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor
2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, North Carolina
3: Florida State, Oregon, Butler, Kentucky
4: Cincinnati, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin
5: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, UCLA
6: St. Mary's, West Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU
7: Minnesota, USC, South Carolina, Maryland
8: VCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
9: TCU, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Clemson
10: California, Northwestern, Michigan State, Miami (FL)
11: Syracuse, (Seton Hall/Georgia Tech), Wichita State, (Marquette/Wake Forest)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont
13: Princeton, Nevada, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State, Furman
15: UNC Asheville, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Arkansas, Tennessee, Rhode Island, Indiana
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Michigan, Illinois State, Georgetown

Moving In: Syracuse
Moving Out: Arkansas
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 12
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Bracketology 2/8/17

Syracuse is in my bracket for the first time all year, thanks to their 5th win in a row. They move in at the expense of Arkansas, who is out for the first time all year due to their 3rd loss in 4 games. The SEC is a 3-bid league for now, but half of the first 8 out are from the SEC. Maryland, South Carolina and Northwestern all tumble with bad losses. Baylor/Oklahoma State highlights tomorrow's slate, although Virginia Tech/Miami, Providence/Seton Hall and Mississippi/Tennessee might be more important for the bubble picture.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor
2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, Florida State
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Butler, Kentucky
4: Cincinnati, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin
5: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, UCLA
6: St. Mary's, West Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU
7: USC, Minnesota, South Carolina, Maryland
8: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, VCU, Virginia Tech
9: Iowa State, TCU, Dayton, Clemson
10: Northwestern, California, Michigan State, Syracuse
11: Wichita State, Seton Hall, (Georgia Tech/Miami (FL)), (Marquette/Wake Forest)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont
13: Nevada, New Mexico State, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Monmouth, Valparaiso, Furman, Akron
15: Arkansas State, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Arkansas, Rhode Island, Indiana, Vanderbilt
Next Four Out: Mississippi, Michigan, Tennessee, Illinois State

Moving In: Syracuse
Moving Out: Arkansas
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 12
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, February 6, 2017

Bracketology 2/7/17

Few games of note last night, the only two Power 6 matchups were Kansas/Kansas State and Louisville/Virginia. Louisville's stay on the 1-line lasted 2 full days, Baylor has reclaimed the 1 seed in the South region. Lots of intriguing bubble matchups on Tuesday- Wake Forest, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgia could all get huge wins, among others. Today, I'm releasing a bracket (hopefully you can read my handwriting!), not a seed list. Enjoy!
First Four Out: Syracuse, Indiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Illinois State, Georgia

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Bracketology 2/6/17

Indiana lost at Wisconsin yesterday, and while it's certainly an excusable loss, Indiana was close  enough to the cut line that they drop out in favor of Miami. Louisville/Virginia will be huge tonight- Baylor will be back on the 1-line if Virginia wins, and Louisville will strengthen their grip on the 1-line if they win. Kansas also faces a tough test at Kansas State, the Wildcats will probably be off the bubble for good if they win.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Louisville
2: Baylor, Arizona, Florida State, North Carolina
3: Oregon, Virginia, Butler, Kentucky
4: Cincinnati, Purdue, Florida, Wisconsin
5: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, UCLA
6: South Carolina, St. Mary's, West Virginia, Maryland
7: SMU, USC, Notre Dame, Minnesota
8: Iowa State, Kansas State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State
9: Clemson, VCU, Virginia Tech, Michigan State
10: Dayton, TCU, California, Marquette
11: Arkansas, (Wake Forest/Seton Hall), Wichita State, (Georgia Tech/Miami (FL))
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Belmont, Nevada, New Mexico State, Princeton
14: Bucknell, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Akron
15: Arkansas State, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Indiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Illinois State, Georgia

Moving In: Miami (FL)
Moving Out: Indiana
Removed From Consideration: Nebraska

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 11
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/5/17

There's a ton of chaos at the top of the bracket as 6 of the 1, 2 and 3 seeds I had in my last update lost on Saturday. The biggest winner of the mayhem at the top is Louisville, as they make their first appearance of the year on the 1-line thanks to Baylor's loss to Kansas State. The 4th spot on the 1-line was Arizona's for the taking before they got destroyed in Eugene. Oregon is not too far away from the 1-line themselves now. Elsewhere near the top of the bracket, Kentucky and Creighton's holds on a protected seed slipped thanks to losses to Florida and Xavier, who are climbing into the protected seed area themselves. On the bubble, a few teams (Arkansas, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee) took bad losses while others (Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Syracuse) got marquee wins. Wichita State is now in the driver's seat in the MVC after a win over Illinois State and could probably reach an 8/9 game if they win out. Illinois State has at-large hopes as well, but it probably requires winning out until the Arch Madness final.

There's not many games on today due to the Super Bowl, from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Indiana to see if they can snag a big win in Madison, and also on Cal as they take on a tricky Colorado team.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Louisville
2: Baylor, Arizona, Florida State, Oregon
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Butler, Kentucky
4: Cincinnati, Purdue, Florida, Creighton
5: Wisconsin, Xavier, Duke, UCLA
6: South Carolina, St. Mary's, Notre Dame, West Virginia
7: Maryland, SMU, USC, Minnesota
8: Iowa State, Clemson, Kansas State, Northwestern
9: Oklahoma State, VCU, Virginia Tech, Michigan State
10: Dayton, TCU, California, Marquette
11: Arkansas, (Wake Forest/Seton Hall), Wichita State, (Georgia Tech/Indiana)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Belmont, Nevada, New Mexico State, Princeton
14: Bucknell, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Akron
15: Arkansas State, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Miami (FL), Syracuse, Rhode Island, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Illinois State, Georgia

Moving In: Seton Hall, Wichita State, New Orleans
Moving Out: Tennessee, Illinois State, Sam Houston State
Removed From Consideration: Alabama, Memphis

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, February 3, 2017

Bracketology 2/3/17

Very little movement last night, although Arizona State almost got a huge upset win against Oregon. The main attraction last night was also in the Pac-12 with  Utah @ Cal, and it didn't disappoint as Cal won in double OT. Utah is now 10 teams outside of my field, and probably needs to go 7-1 the rest of the way to make the tournament. That would put them in an interesting spot- aside from a loss against a pretty decent San Francisco team and last night's loss to Cal, the rest of their losses would be against teams I currently have as an 8 seed or higher. However, their best win would be home against USC or home against Cal. The lack of good wins or bad losses would be an interesting litmus test for the committee.

Due to the light schedule tonight, (the only game of note is Rhode Island @ Davidson) my next update will be Sunday morning.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: Arizona, Louisville, Florida State, Kentucky
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
4: Butler, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, UCLA
5: Duke, Maryland, West Virginia, Purdue
6: Florida, Xavier, South Carolina, St. Mary's
7: Notre Dame, SMU, USC, Minnesota
8: Clemson, Northwestern, Arkansas, Virginia Tech
9: Michigan State, VCU, Dayton, Iowa State
10: Middle Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, TCU
11: Kansas State, California, (Marquette/Indiana), (Tennessee/Wake Forest)
12: Illinois State, UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Nevada, Belmont, Valparaiso, Princeton
14: New Mexico State, Bucknell, Monmouth, Arkansas State
15: Akron, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State
16: Weber State, North Carolina Central, (UC Irvine/Sam Houston State), (Texas Southern/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Wichita State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Michigan
Next Four Out: Georgetown, Rhode Island, Vanderbilt, Syracuse

Moving In: UC Irvine, Sam Houston State
Moving Out: UC Davis, New Orleans
Removed From Consideration: UT-Arlington

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5  
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Bracketology 2/2/17

Kansas got a big win over Baylor and has solidified their hold on a 1 seed. I considered putting Arizona on the 1 line instead of Baylor, but am holding off for now. Seeing Arizona and Gonzaga both on the 1 line would be interesting- normally 1 seeds want to avoid the West region, not seek it out.

On the bubble, Miami missed out on a golden opportunity at a quality win- a game at home against a Florida State team that advanced metrics think is nowhere near the 2 seed they currently hold. Seton Hall also falls out due to their loss to Xavier, and TCU got a huge overtime road win @ Kansas State to climb out of the First Four.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: Arizona, Louisville, Florida State, Kentucky
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
4: Butler, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, UCLA
5: Duke, Maryland, West Virginia, Purdue
6: Florida, Xavier, South Carolina, St. Mary's
7: Notre Dame, SMU, USC, Minnesota
8: Clemson, Northwestern, Arkansas, Virginia Tech
9: VCU, Dayton, Michigan State, Iowa State
10: Middle Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, TCU
11: Kansas State, Marquette, UNC Wilmington, (Indiana/Tennessee)
12: (Wake Forest/California), Illinois State, East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Belmont, Princeton, Nevada, New Mexico State
14: Bucknell, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State
15: Akron, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (UC Davis/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Wichita State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Michigan
Next Four Out: Utah, Georgetown, Rhode Island, Vanderbilt

Moving In: Wake Forest, California
Moving Out: Miami (FL), Seton Hall
Removed From Consideration: Penn State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5  
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Bracketology 2/1/17

Georgia almost pulled off the hardest feat in the SEC, winning at Rupp Arena, last night. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they fell in overtime and remain a ways out of the bracket. Also in the SEC, Tennessee won their 4th straight @ Auburn. They'll be favorites in every remaining game except their trips to Lexington and Columbia, and I think they can lose both of those and still make it in if they win the other 7.

Baylor @ Kansas is the main attraction tonight, although I'm undecided if I'll take the loser off the 1-line. A win for Baylor will go a long way towards snapping Kansas' streak of Big 12 regular season titles.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Louisville, Florida State, Kentucky
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
4: Butler, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, UCLA
5: Duke, Maryland, West Virginia, Florida
6: South Carolina, St. Mary's, Purdue, Notre Dame
7: Xavier, Northwestern, SMU, USC
8: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Arkansas
9: Marquette, VCU, Clemson, Kansas State
10: Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee
11: Oklahoma State, UNC Wilmington, Tennessee, (Indiana/Seton Hall)
12: (Miami (FL)/TCU), Illinois State, East Tennessee State, Nevada
13: Vermont, Belmont, Princeton, New Mexico State
14: Bucknell, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State
15: Akron, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: North Dakota State, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (UC Davis/Mount Saint Mary's)

First Four Out: Wake Forest, California, Wichita State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Texas Tech, Utah, Georgetown, Rhode Island
Also Considered: Vanderbilt, North Carolina State, Providence, Georgia, Pittsburgh, Mississippi, Illinois, Alabama, Syracuse, Stanford, Nebraska, Iowa, Memphis, Auburn, Texas A&M, Ohio State,  UT-Arlington, Charleston, Houston, Penn State

Moving In: Seton Hall, TCU, Arkansas State
Moving Out: Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Georgia Southern
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 5  
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2