Sunday, March 12, 2017

Bracketology 3/12/17 Evening

This is my final bracketology for 2017. I moved some teams around today- Michigan moved up to a 6 with their win over Wisconsin, among others. I am pretty confident with the at-large selections I've made, but the committee could throw a total curveball like they did last year with Tulsa.



1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Florida
4: UCLA, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, SMU
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan
7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Maryland, Arkansas
8: Dayton, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, VCU
9: Wichita State, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Oklahoma State
10: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Northwestern, Xavier
11: Marquette, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Providence, Kansas State, USC
12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky
15: Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota, Troy
16: Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, UC Davis, New Orleans, Mount St. Mary's, South Dakota State

Outside Looking In: Syracuse, Illinois State, Illinois, California, Georgia, Clemson

Bracketology 3/12/17 Morning

This is only my morning update- I'll have another final update after all of the championship games are done today.

I ran my model this morning and it produced some interesting results, such as Duke on the 1-line. Also, Rhode Island is in for Illinois State. I might swap in Syracuse for Rhode Island if the Rams lose to VCU today.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Oregon, Baylor, UCLA
4: Florida, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Cincinnati
6: Minnesota, SMU, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Michigan, Maryland, Dayton
8: Arkansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: South Carolina, VCU, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State
10: Seton Hall, Xavier, Michigan State, Northwestern
11: Marquette, Wake Forest, (Providence/USC), (Kansas State/Rhode Island)
12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky
15: Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota State, Texas State
16: Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's), (South Dakota State/UC Davis)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Illinois State, Illinois, California, Georgia, Clemson
 
Moving In: Rhode Island, Texas State, Kent State, UC Davis, New Mexico State
Moving Out: Illinois State, UT-Arlington, Akron, UC Irvine, Cal State Bakersfield
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, March 10, 2017

Bracketology 3/11/17

Fringe bubble teams dropped like flies today as Georgia, Indiana, TCU, California and Houston all lost must-win games and I think all five are totally out of consideration for an at-large. In my mind, the bubble is really down to just 6 teams- Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Illinois State, Rhode Island and Syracuse. Right now, there's 4 spots for those 6 teams but that could shrink in the case of bid stealers, and there's plenty of potential bid thieves still alive.

I'm pretty shaky on some areas of my seed list- the 3 and 4 lines are one area, as are the 9 and 10 lines. I'm going to run my model tomorrow afternoon to help sort that out.
Displaying IMG_5835.JPG
1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Oregon, Louisville, Florida State
3: Duke, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
4: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia, Florida
5: Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State
6: Creighton, Minnesota, SMU, St. Mary's
7: Wisconsin, Michigan, Miami (FL), Maryland
8: Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Wichita State
9: VCU, Northwestern, South Carolina, Oklahoma State
10: Xavier, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Seton Hall
11: Marquette, Wake Forest, (Providence/Kansas State), Middle Tennessee
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Rhode Island, Syracuse, Iowa, Illinois

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Georgia, Indiana, TCU, California, Houston

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Bracketology 3/10/17

I'm moving Iowa out of the field after their loss to Indiana, and I considered denoting them as a long shot as well. Teams with RPIs in the high 70s don't get simply don't get bids, and Iowa doesn't have the wins Syracuse does to counteract the unwieldy RPI. USC also hurt themselves today- I think they're probably still in but my guess is they'll be in a First Four game.

Today's bubble winners include Michigan State and Northwestern, who took care of business in the Big Ten Tournament and earned locks for it, as well as California and Indiana who got necessary wins. However, both teams still need at least one more win to have a serious shot.

However, the biggest bubble winners of the day were in the Big 12 where Kansas State vaulted into the field with a win over Baylor, and TCU dealt a blow to Kansas' #1 overall seed hopes as well. I think Kansas State is probably in even if they lose to West Virginia, although it's not a sure thing. TCU definitely needs at least one more win, possibly two, to counteract their 6-12 conference record, 14 losses, and RPI of 64.

1: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Oregon, Louisville
3: Baylor, UCLA, Duke, Florida
4: Arizona, Purdue, West Virginia, Notre Dame
5: West Virginia, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State
6: Minnesota, SMU, Maryland, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Dayton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL)
8: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Michigan
9: Wichita State, VCU, Xavier, Seton Hall
10: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Marquette
11: Wake Forest, Providence, (Kansas State/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Iowa, Houston
Also Considered: Illinois, TCU, Indiana, California, Georgia

Moving In: Kansas State
Moving Out: Iowa
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/9/17

I'm making a decision that I think most bracketologists will disagree with by dropping Syracuse out of the field. Their RPI is 84 and the worst RPI to get an at-large bid is 68. If other bubble teams lose, there's enough other good stuff on their resume that they still have a shot, but I think it's dependent on other bubble teams losing.

I think Wake Forest is in, and I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make it. Power conference teams with top-40 RPIs don't miss the tournament and their win over Louisville is as good as any other bubble team win.

Lots more bubble teams in action today. Illinois and Kansas State, among others, face must wins.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida State
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's
7: Dayton, Creighton, Miami (FL), Wisconsin
8: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Arkansas, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Providence
11: Xavier, Wake Forest, (USC/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee
12: (Illinois State/Iowa), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Illinois, Kansas State
Also Considered: Houston, Georgia, California, Indiana

Moving In: Iowa
Moving Out: Syracuse
Removed From Consideration: Clemson, Ohio State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Bracketology 3/8/17

Most bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, so the bubble will be more interesting today after a few nights of stagnation. Clemson, USC, Xavier and Ohio State face must wins.

Not much changed as a result of yesterday's games- Gonzaga moved up the 2-line and St. Mary's moved down the 6-line.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida State
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's
7: Dayton, Creighton, Wisconsin, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
11: Providence, Xavier, (USC/Vanderbilt), (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Bakersfield
15: Northern Kentucky, Iona, South Dakota State, Texas Southern
16: UC Irvine, North Dakota, (Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central), (New Orleans/Mount St. Mary's)

First Four Out: Iowa, Rhode Island, Illinois, Kansas State
Also Considered: Houston, Clemson, Georgia, California, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

Moving In: South Dakota State
Moving Out: Nebraska-Omaha
Removed From Consideration: Georgia Tech

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Bracketology 3/7/17

I re-ran my model last night and it flipped Illinois State and Kansas State. However, from Providence to Clemson the margins are razor-thin, I can see any team in red getting a bid or getting left out. Speaking of the teams in red, I've introduced a color coding system- black means a team is either a lock or an auto-bid only, orange means a team should be in, red means a team is on the bubble and pink means a team is a long shot. The only bubble action today is in the ACC where Clemson and Wake Forest both face must-wins.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Louisville, Florida State, Gonzaga
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, St. Mary's, Maryland, Iowa State
7: Dayton, Creighton, Wisconsin, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
11: Providence, Xavier, (USC/Vanderbilt), (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: Princeton, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Iona, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Cal State Bakersfield, UC Irvine, North Dakota, Northern Kentucky
16: North Carolina Central, New Orleans, (Nebraska-Omaha/Jacksonville State), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Iowa, Rhode Island, Illinois, Kansas State
Also Considered: Houston, Clemson, Georgia, California, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

Moving In: Illinois State, Nebraska-Omaha
Moving Out: Kansas State, South Dakota
Removed From Consideration: None 

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Bracketology 3/6/17

The biggest bubble action on Sunday was Wichita State locking up a bid with their win over Illinois State. I have the Redbirds outside the field for now, but I'm going to be continuously running my model this week and as other bubble teams win or lose I could see Illinois State still getting in.

There's no bubble teams in action on Monday (although I guess UNC Wilmington has a very small chance at getting a bid if they lose to Charleston). Most of the intrigue lies between the 13 and 16 lines.

Starting tomorrow I will begin awarding locks and should-be-in status as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Duke, Butler, Florida State
4: Florida, Arizona, Purdue, Virginia
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, SMU
6: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland
7: Creighton, Dayton, Iowa State, Miami (FL)
8: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Marquette, Northwestern
10: Xavier, Michigan, Providence, Wake Forest
11: VCU, Michigan State, (Vanderbilt/Syracuse), (USC/Kansas State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: Princeton, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Iona, Florida Gulf Coast
15: South Dakota, Cal State Bakersfield, UC Irvine, North Dakota
16: Northern Kentucky, North Carolina Central, (New Orleans/Jacksonville State), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Illinois State, Rhode Island, Iowa, Illinois
Also Considered: Clemson, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Georgia

Moving In: Kansas State, Iona
Moving Out: Illinois State, Monmouth
Removed From Consideration: None 

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2
  

Bracketology 3/5/17

The last Saturday of the regular season didn't disappoint, as lots of teams played themselves off the bubble. I removed 4 teams from consideration after losses, while others (Providence, Wake Forest, Marquette) made huge strides towards bids with wins. Starting tomorrow, I'll categorize teams into locks, should-be-ins and bubble teams.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga 
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky    
3: UCLA, Duke, Butler, Florida State  
4: Florida, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue  
5: West Virginia, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Notre Dame  
6: SMU, St. Mary's, Maryland, Creighton  
7: Dayton, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Miami (FL)  
8: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Northwestern      
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Wichita State, Marquette   
10: Xavier, Providence, Wake Forest, Michigan   
11: VCU, Michigan State, (Vanderbilt/Syracuse), Middle Tennessee      
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Monmouth    
13: Vermont, Princeton, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State  
14: Bucknell, Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast
15: South Dakota, UC Irvine, Cal State Bakersfield, North Dakota  
16: Northern Kentucky, North Carolina Central, (New Orleans/Jacksonville State), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Rhode Island, Iowa, Illinois  
Also Considered: Clemson, Indiana, Georgia, Tech, Georgia  

Moving In: Illinois State, Vanderbilt, Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville State  
Moving Out: Illinois, Rhode Island, Valparaiso, UT-Martin  
Removed From Consideration: Ohio State, Texas Tech, California, TCU

Bids by Conference:      
ACC: 10    
Big Ten: 7      
Big East: 7    
Big 12: 5    
SEC: 5   
Pac-12: 4      
Atlantic 10: 2  
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2   
West Coast: 2

Friday, March 3, 2017

Bracketology 3/4/17

Friday was probably the least important bubble day we'll see for the rest of the season. Wichita State and Illinois State both got important wins, although not without issue for the Redbirds. Saturday promises to be busier.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga  
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky    
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, UCLA    
4: Arizona, Florida State, Virginia, Purdue    
5: West Virginia, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Cincinnati  
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Dayton
7:Maryland, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, South Carolina  
8: Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Northwestern    
9: Arkansas, Wichita State, Xavier, Michigan    
10: Providence, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Marquette    
11: VCU, USC, (Wake Forest/Illinois), Middle Tennessee    
12: (Syracuse/Rhode Island), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington    
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso, Winthrop
15: Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota, UC Irvine  
16: North Dakota, North Carolina Central, (New Orleans/Tennessee Martin), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)
 
 
First Four Out: Kansas State, Illinois State, Iowa, Vanderbilt    
Also Considered: Georgia Tech, Clemson, California, Georgia, Ohio State, TCU, Indiana, Texas Tech  
Moving In: Tennessee Martin
Moving Out: Belmont
Removed From Consideration: None

Bids by Conference:    
ACC: 10  
Big Ten: 8     
Big East: 7  
Big 12: 5  
SEC: 4  
Pac-12: 4    
Atlantic 10: 3  
American: 2   
West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/3/17

Last night was relatively quiet on the bubble, with the biggest game being Iowa's win @Wisconsin. I've moved Iowa into the First Four out for now, but I'm still pretty pessimistic about their chances of getting a bid. Their last regular season game (Penn State) doesn't really provide much opportunity for a big win and they're likely to play Illinois and then Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament. I think they probably have to beat Purdue to get in, although wins over Penn State and Illinois may be enough.
 
Conference tournaments start for bubble teams today as both Illinois State and Wichita State are in action in Arch Madness.  

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky  
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, UCLA  
4: Arizona, Florida State, Virginia, Purdue  
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati  
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Dayton
7: Iowa State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, South Carolina  
8: Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Northwestern  
9: Arkansas, Wichita State, Xavier, Michigan  
10: Providence, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Marquette  
11: VCU, USC, (Wake Forest/Illinois), Middle Tennessee  
12: (Syracuse/Rhode Island), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington  
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, Belmont  
14: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: Winthrop, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota  
16:UC Irvine, North Dakota, (North Carolina Central/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)
 
First Four Out: Kansas State, Illinois State, Iowa, Vanderbilt  
Also Considered: Georgia Tech, Clemson, California, Georgia, Ohio State, TCU, Indiana, Texas Tech Moving In: Winthrop
Moving Out: UNC Asheville  
Removed From Consideration: Houston

Bids by Conference:  
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8     
Big East: 7
Big 12: 5
SEC: 4  
Pac-12: 4  
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2   
West Coast: 2

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Bracketology 3/2/17

It was a very interesting night on the bubble as a lot of teams on the 9 and 10 lines lost (Michigan State, Xavier, Michigan, VCU) and lots of teams closer to the cut line won (Wake Forest, Illinois, Marquette). As a result, I had a lot of trouble seeding the 9-11 lines and I might change them up a little bit over the next few days. Regardless, Illinois is in my field for the first time since January 23rd after their win over Michigan State, and Wake Forest is in for now as well after a win over Louisville. The loss knocked the Cardinals down to the 2-line, and I picked Gonzaga to replace them although I seriously considered Baylor and Oregon as well.

Tonight on the bubble, Cal looks for an important road win @Utah, Houston faces a must-win @Cincinnati, and Middle Tennessee looks to cruise against FIU.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, Arizona
4: Florida State, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Dayton, Iowa State, Maryland, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State, Northwestern
9: Arkansas, Wichita State, Xavier, Michigan
10: Providence, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Marquette
11: VCU, USC, (Wake Forest/Illinois), Middle Tennessee
12: (Syracuse/Rhode Island), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, Belmont
14: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16:UC Irvine, North Dakota, (North Carolina Central/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Illinois State, Vanderbilt, California
Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Clemson, Houston, Georgia
Also Considered: Ohio State, TCU, Indiana, Texas Tech

Moving In: Wake Forest, Illinois
Moving Out: Illinois State, Vanderbilt
Removed From Consideration: Tennessee, Mississippi

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 8   
Big East: 7
Big 12: 5
SEC: 4
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2 
West Coast: 2